Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Has Germany Ended Its Reliance On Russian Natural Gas?

BBC: Ukraine war: How Germany ended reliance on Russian gas 

When Vladimir Putin switched off the gas taps to Europe, Germany more than most feared a winter of blackouts. Ministers scrambled to secure alternative supplies, painfully aware that a heavy dependence on Russian gas had left this industrial nation woefully exposed. 

But fast forward a few months and, as lights sparkle in the Christmas markets, there is a sense of tentative optimism in the Glühwein spiced air. Germany's hastily assembled strategy to manage without Russian gas appears - for now - to be working.

"Energy security for this winter is guaranteed," the Chancellor Olaf Scholz told MPs in the German parliament on Wednesday morning. 

Not only are the country's gas stores full; the result, in part, of a frantic - and expensive - buying operation on the world's markets.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: Germany is the world's largest importer of natural gas. To replace 40% of the supply that came from Russia meant buying LNG on international markets at astronomical prices. So yes. One can easily make the argument that Germany has ended its reliance on Russian natural gas. But they have sacrificed the economic benefits that cheap and reliable natural gas from Russia has given to German industry and consumers. 

I have mentioned it more than once on this blog that Germany's economic success is from a business model that is based on cheap and reliable Russian energy. That is now no longer the case. Many German industries have already signaled that to remain competitive on global markets they will need to relocate to other parts of the world where energy supply and prices is not an issue. And most Germans understand that. But the ultimate consequences have yet to be felt.

And what will be this ultimate consequence?

I predict that if the Russian - Ukraine war is not resolved by 2023, and Russian sanctions are still in place, the industrialization of Europe, particular in Germany, is going to accelerate.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

'de-industrialization' of europe, I'm sure you meant to say.

And yes, and they have been pushing these fantasies of a service economy or a "financialized" economy for decades now in the US.

It brings to mind the music video for "Let's Dance" by David Bowie.

Where the native youth scrub the asphalt streets for their bread.

Anonymous said...

Germany needs to sue Russia for war reparations.

Anonymous said...

All experts have said next winter is the real test. The richest countries on earth were always going to be able to empty the piggy bank and stock up on the worlds remaining stockpile reserves this year.

Factories will still have to close and huge subsidies will need to be given out to homeowners but nobody is going to freeze.

Anonymous said...

lol good one

Anonymous said...

what was said
When Vladimir Putin switched off the gas taps to Europe, Germany more than most feared a winter of blackouts. Ministers scrambled to

Reality
When the Governments of Europe imposed self inflicted sanctions that would knowingly do excruciating harm to thier own economies and industrial base and switched off the gas taps to Europe, Germany more than most feared a winter of blackouts. Ministers scrambled to

Anonymous said...

Germans did not switch off any taps. Putin did switch off taps intermittently as a farm of warfare.

Anonymous said...

If you use one step logic and a one level investigation...then you are absolutely correct. Look into the why and who a little deeper and one sees this is not so simple

Anonymous said...

Wow "one step logic". Did you come up with that by yourself or did your supervisor supply you with the phrase?

So lay out the supposed step and connect the dots.

Anonymous said...

EU + NA create sanctions barring payment for russian energy in dollars or euros. The contracts state payment must be made in those currencies. Russia offers to accept payment in rubles instead. EU refuses. Taps shut off.