Pedestrians walk past soldiers as they stand at the Red Square near the Saint Basil's Cathedral in Moscow, on Nov 18, 2022. PHOTO: AFP
Wison Center: Russia’s Economy at the End of 2022: Deeper Troubles
The September−October enlistment drive has done to the Russian economy what the West’s sanctions have so far failed to do. The real estate market, demand for credit, and consumer sentiment all show a noticeable decline. Absent oil and gas revenues, the federal budget would be in deep deficit. Russia’s brainwashed citizens are starting to suspect that the war is eating away at their well-being. The recession will continue in 2023.
In the fall of 2022, the Russian army, effectively defeated in Ukraine over the spring and summer, needed a serious influx of soldiers. According to the official count, 318,000 men were drafted, or nearly 1 percent of those liable for military service—and that figure is likely an underestimate. Even more people, up to 1.5−2 times as many and predominantly men, have left the country to escape the draft. Many have lost their incomes and have had to reconsider their investments and consumption patterns.
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Update #1: The War on Russia's Economy Is Working (Bloomberg)
Update #2: How the Russian economy is defying and withstanding western sanctions (Straits Times)
WNU Editor: You cannot use the metrics of the past to determine what is the state of the Russian economy right now. The Russian economy is now a wartime economy. A third of the Russian government's budget is now dedicated to the military. The labor market has shifted as reserves are called up. Big time purchases that families always conduct like purchasing a new car, home, etc., are now delayed.
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