Foreign Policy: Ukraine’s Longest Day
The first 24 hours of the expected counteroffensive will likely be decisive.
The first 24 hours of Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive may be the longest day for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel said to an aide before the expected Allied invasion of Normandy in 1944: “The first 24 hours of the invasion will be decisive. … For the Allies, as well as Germany, it will be the longest day”—a statement immortalized by the blockbuster Hollywood film about the Normandy landings, The Longest Day. Rommel knew that the initial phase of an attack often shapes the character of the subsequent fight, decides victory or defeat, and determines the strategic impact of an offensive.
Most of the speculation and debate is about when and where Ukrainian forces will strike, how big an attacking force Ukraine has assembled, and how much of an impact newly supplied Western weapons will have. It’s unlikely that anyone outside Ukraine’s high command knows whether Ukraine now has a decisive advantage in firepower, munitions, troop numbers, and battlefield logistics. What we do know is that in recent months, the war has increasingly been defined by attrition—neither side appears to have a decisive advantage, and each is trying to wear the other down. Whatever happens on Ukraine’s D-Day, it will not be easy for Ukrainian forces to avoid the war’s character as one of attrition, even if they are large, well-prepared, and well-equipped.
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WNU Editor: Foreign Policy and other like-minded Washington publications and think-tanks take it as a given that Ukraine will succeed in routing the Russian Army once they launch their counter-offensive in the coming weeks. That a combination of surprise, tactics, superior morale and weapons, and leadership will force the Russian Army to break and panic.
Will this happen?
I just do not see this happening. What I am more worried about is a Russian offensive being launched after a Ukrainian counter-offensive has burned through it manpower, equipment, and ammo.
6 comments:
Plenty of reports out there that the Leopard tanks are already being knocked out. And as everybody here knows, it’s easier to defend than to attack. Go Russia!
Last fall was the first. This next one will be the second Ukrainian Ardenss offensive. The initial success will go only so far, then it will stall out. Massive amounts of equipment will be committed and lost.
The Russians will dutifully retreat and attitude as they fall back.
THEN the retreat Will halt somewhere far short of the three new Oblast's eastern borders. Then one of two things will happen
A. Russians will hold the line and attrite the ukies until they get tired, then advance.
Or
b, Russians will counter attack after stalling out ukie offensive.
. How successful will the counter attack be? Totally unknown.
Wash and repeat as needed.
Maybe the Russians will finally try some type of maneuver warfare, but then again,
go with what you know.
Bot one viable report of that lol, e eryone has been shown as being from Syria or a training mishap. You're beloved Russian quasi nazi will taste nato doctrine lol
Is it wise to launch an offensive in the middle of the muddy season? The reason the Russians didn't attack in the winter was because there was less than 10 days of ground freezing in the south. Shouldn't everyone be waiting until summer?
Don’t matter if NATO do a counteroffensive with a gay parade and all the rainbows they have ,will cry for their lives , leopard , challenger .abram or trans it won’t work so go cry now .
11:06, I do not understand, do you think an army that has to charge their tank batteries for 48 hours but only if the wind is blowing 15 mph is a faux army? don't you think that rainbow uniforms offer great camouflage, especially in the spring during rain showers? You don't think that re-imagining the greatest military in the history of mankind is not a great Idea? geeze Louise, how cynical.
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