Evening Standard: Ukraine may be ‘pausing counteroffensive’, says Institute for the Study of War
Think tank says Kyiv’s forces may be temporarily halting their operations to ‘re-evaluate their tactics’
Kyiv’s forces may be temporarily halting their counteroffensive operations to re-evaluate their tactics for future operations, according to military experts.
Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg said on 16 June that in his assessment “we won’t see an offensive over the next seven days”.
The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on 17 June that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as the command in Kyiv re-examines tactics.
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WNU Editor: After two weeks of fighting and losing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of pieces of equipment, the only thing that Ukraine has to show for it are about a dozen small villages and 45 square miles. A re-evaluation is necessary.
There are also reports now coming in that Russia has launched a major offense in the northeastern part of the country. If true, Ukraine will need to draw on their reserves to counter it, thereby depriving men and equipment for their southern counteroffensive.
16 comments:
Ukraine should have enforced the Minsk Agreements. They would have lost less land and no soldiers. This has been a catastrophe geopolitically for the West. Pushing China and Russia closer together. Quickening the pace of the demise of the petrodollar and USD as reserve currency. Sending Europe into a recession. Rising US debt. While BRICS+ builds support. Horrible foreign policy decisions. Europe could have been using Russian cheap energy for decades. What a foreign policy misadventure. Brought to us by the same group that wasted our money in Iraq, Afghanistan, et al.
Well, that escalated quickly.
Right again
Yes exactly. But the west has gone mad. Reparations for blacks, LGTBQ nonsense, green energy debacle, open borders and mass immigration. Justina Trudeau, and Joe Biden. The west is very very sick indeed
The beast master, USA convinced zelinski to stop slaughtering his own soldiers.
A 4th grader could have seen this coming.
All the bullshit about Ukrainian
Superior soldiers
Superior equipment
Superior leadership
and
Superior training
Was a bag full of crap when faced with hard reality.
But tgats what the Neocons do. They lie and spread deception so men believe in a false reality and false outcomes.
Then they make excuses and belittle obvious defeats .
And that's why you have so many dead.
Russia invaded a nation at peace. period. next?
Ukraine has conducted reconnaissance by fire and now has an idea of Russian plans and deployments. Pause until aviation and mines are solved for with more NASAMS and breaching systems, then continue slowly, culminating in fall. NATO needs to get serious, though. US needs to commit to 30 M1s and 60-90 IFV/APCs a month for 12 months, etc. Go big or go home. Actually, go regular, as in a systematized pipeline with planned incremental contributions, or go home.
5:06
Do you have any idea what you are talking about? Recon by fire?
If that was recon by fire, it was one of he worst I have ever seen. More like recon by suicide.
How are you going to solve for Aviation when you have no Airforce? And what happened to the thousands of pieces of ADA systems we have given them?
Solve for mines? There is only two ways you solve for mines....clear them or by- pass them. The ukies have failed miserably at both even after been given western equipment and western training.
30m1s and 60-90 IFVs Per month? no way. Just look at the shipping data, not to mention having to strip US Army units to do so.
Bottom line the ukies do need a pause. One about 2-3 years. Then they could do as you say.
In the current condition, Within 2-3 months? No way.
In March 2023 alone - four weeks of fighting - Russia only captured 27 square miles in exchange for tens of thousands of casualties and thousands of destroyed vehicles. If you look at Russia's entire winter/spring offensive they probably had over 20-40k+ killed, hundred thousand plus wounded, thousands of vehicles destroyed all for insignificant gains that barely moved the lines on the map unless it is zoomed in real close.
Compare those results to the minimum gains Russia expected from their offensive - to seize the entirety of the Donbas so Putin could have something to celebrate on May 9. That didn't happen which means the last time Russia was able to make any significant advances was in early July 2022. In almost a year of fighting, Russia has barely been able to move any lines. In comparison, Ukraine took back 20% of occupied territory last fall.
Yet at no time did we get WNU Editor claiming the Russian offensive was a big failure or that the Kremlin needed to re-evaluate things. Instead just more predictions on how Russia was going to crush Ukraine and that the Ukrainian army had been destroyed three times over.
So the results of two weeks of Ukrainian offensives is still better and at lower cost compared to four weeks of Russian attacks.
The Ukrainians could very well be deciding on a brief operational pause to reevaluate tactics. That seems relatively normal. But the Ukrainians will still likely be fighting somewhere on the frontlines, and will resume the offensive afterwards. Everyone knows that that the 8-12 motorized brigades have not been committed yet so the main thrust hasn't happened yet. We are still in the very early stage of the Ukrainian offensive.
Just like we could not evaluate the end result of Russia's winter offensive until it had culminated after five months, we will likely not be able to evaluate the final results of the Ukrainian offensive until September. I think it'll probably be until late July or August before we could see significant Ukrainian gains.
It's very hard right now to determine which side is getting the worst of the fighting, or if things are equally costly for both sides. In time, all this will be made clear by seeing the ultimate battlefield results.
Chris
Ah yes. The West invited Russia to invade Ukraine. So you would have everyone believe.
Spouting facts. Sadly those facts are not convenient for the WNU editor or some of the pro-putlers on here.
Peace? Had a coup d’état in 2014, at war with two breakaway regions (Donbass and Luhansk) was training and equipping a massive army to invade those regions and commit genocide. Russia went in and saved millions of lives. Thanks for letting everyone know how ignorant you truly are
My main site now is not WNU but another, which shall remain unnamed. Wouldn't want more trolls there although the ones already there are ruthlessly rooted out.
There are a lot of buffs and prior military of various specialties, so you learn a lot. It is not like WNU's blog, where some trolls have virtually taken it over.
WNU has a few things once in awhile but it is mainly for monitoring now.
What mickey mouse? NYT? Neocons are Us?
If you have a brain you will look at Big Serge or Simpliticas the Thinker.
At least we will not have to listen to your ideological screeds anymore.
He won't listen to facts..too far down the heir putler rabbit hole
They lost respect Senseless war territory has always been Russia's like Poland and much of Europe, in this we are seeing the stupidity of a lunatic president with his victory
The Ukrainian offensive is the latest Lan Son 719.
Like that former debacle, this offensive too will be called a victory.
Sort of like the glorious attack by Iraqi on Mosul after ISIS took it over. What a mess. An abject failure until the US intervened and brought in even more advisors , artillery and air support
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