Ukrainian service members ride a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle near the front line in the newly liberated village Neskuchne in Donetsk region, Ukraine, June 13, 2023. REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak
Washington Post: Russia aims to defeat counteroffensive with mines, artillery and aviation
RIGA, Latvia — As Ukraine readied its counteroffensive by gathering Western weapons and sending its troops for NATO training, Russia spent at least seven months preparing for this potentially definitive stage of the war — by readying reserves, artillery and aviation support, stockpiling ammunition and fuel, and procuring more drones.
Russian forces also burrowed into the territory they occupy in southeast Ukraine, digging lines of trenches and erecting fortifications along the entire 900-mile-long front line, from Zaporizhzhia to Russia’s Belgorod region.
The massive network of defenses has weaknesses, according to military experts who described Russia’s preparations, but it is already slowing offensive operations and creating bottlenecks for the Ukrainian army, forcing it to try to break through on narrow paths, which allows Russia to regroup and aim more precisely.
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WNU Editor: For any offensive to succeed you need surprise, superiority in manpower, artillery, and control of the skies. I would also add large supplies and good logistics.
In all of these categories it is Russia that has the numbers, superiority in the air, and more important, shorter logistic lines than the Ukrainian army.
And as to Ukraine's counteroffensive strategy. After two weeks this is all that I have seen so far (see tweets below).
With Ukraine throwing more forces in to attack around both Orikhiv and Kam’yanske, it’s long past time to admit that they did not have a plan more sophisticated than hammering on the front of Russia’s extensive defenses in the south. This really was the master plan.
— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) June 17, 2023
It seems Ukraine believed its own nonsense about the Kharkov and Kherson counteroffensives and thought they could replicate that story here.
— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) June 17, 2023
15 comments:
A lot more Russians are going to die in Bakhmut and only 50% of those will die at the hands of the Ukrainians
#Russian_Incompetence
Russia does not have the empire that it had for the last 5 centuries. It cannot afford such extravagant waste. But they are.
Germany won the Battle for France in 1940 and they had superior nothing.
I wonder what Sun Tzu would say about hyping up your offensive on CNN every day for 8 months leading up to it.
Corporate media is not Ukraine's friend. They have opposite interests.
Cannot afford? Coming from the western troll who probably resides in the country that just knocked out 32 trillion in debt lol. Russia will be around long after the U.S. and Europe collapse. Stand-by grasshopper
Way too early to determine if or how successful the Ukrainian counterattack will be. It's only been two weeks. The Ukrainian operations right now are clearly designed to suck up Russian reserves and determine weak points as the infantry advance towards the main Russian lines. Only after they do find a breakout point, would they send in their combined arms reserve.
So is this World War I style trench slog that won't lead to anywhere? Or will it be more like the slow and grinding advance in the bocage country after Normandy that lead to the breakout in Operation Cobra? We probably won't know until well into July. Many battles can be like that - grinding, attritional combat with little frontline changes until one side becomes exhausted and the other can make a breakthrough.
But this reporting is typical of WNU Editor. Anything Ukraine does is reported as a failure until well after he cannot deny reality anymore. I think he pronounced the Ukrainian advance in Kherson as defeated at least six times. He initially reported the Ukrainian success at Kharkiv as falling into a Russian trap.
But any Russian actions are always reported as a devastating success when they first begin. When Russia launched its winter offensive after Putin sacked Surovikin, he assured us that within weeks the Russians would encircle Bakhmut and trap the entire Ukrainian army (WNU Editor loves to claim that Russia will encircle and annihilate the Ukrainian army - he's done it at least three times by my count), and then push on to encircle and destroy more Ukrainian forces. In actuality, Russia needed five months to take Bakhmut, failed to encircle or destroy the Ukrainian forces, suffered high casualties for it, and exhausted themselves so that they could not continue further offensive operations. A minor tactical victory at high cost. But he still counts it as a big win. And massive defeats like Vuhledar? Usually not mentioned.
My own gut tells me that likely Ukraine is making less of an initial advance than they hoped, but in general things are still going as they expected, just at a slower pace. Some of this is due to Russia rushing its reserves in Kherson after they blew up the Nova Khakovka Dam, and some of it is that the Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front are the few Russian reserves not chewed up in earlier fighting. Regardless of how things do, these are Putin's few remaining rested, well equipped, intact forces. The question is which side will become exhausted first and at what point. But we do know that Ukraine has four months of good weather to do whatever they need to do.
Chris
Well said , l was just thinking the same thing . At times WNU reporting may as well be scripted by the Kremlin.
Perhaps, but eating cabbage and grass , not big macs lol
I hope the Ukrainians do not take ground around Vuhledar. It is like a gigantic trap set there to catch Russians.
The Ukrainians took Piatykhatky.
1) It was or is a small village.
2) It is not the main line. It is screening the mainline.
3) The Russian defenders, that is the dead former defenders, were an irregular outfit.
Doesn't number 3 strike you as a bit odd?
There are so many irregular forces for such a rich country like Russia that is making oodles and oodles of cash from selling oil.
I hope the Ukrainians do not take Bakhmut soon. Other than taking out HQ elements, artillery and AA, they should just semis-mask it and let nature do the work. Just 1/2 way surrounded many, many Russians will die of neglect.
Ford motor company and Lend Lease is not going to save Russia this time.
Typical tripe from Chris and FAZ
The ukies do not have the fire power of manpower to conduct a break through and even more. If they did happen to break through, they do not have the manpower or equipment numbers to conduct an exploitation.
Ukie vs Russian abilities are about equal. But logistics and time go to the Russians.
Ukies have NO air cover or Robust artillery support. The Russians have THREE complex obstacle defensive belts. That means ukies die in large numbers with gaining much land. There will be NO operation Cobra., because the Ukes do not have the resources.
Putin did not "sack" any one. This has been stated before . He put his highest Ranking ARMED FORCES General in Charge, to ensure that the rest of the KLUGE Russian Military would have to cooperate and could Not say no to the commander of forces conducting the war.
Encircle forces: Yep, not done in great numbers but you forget to mention the fact that the Ukies are on thier 3rd army being destroyed. Unlike the russians, they really do have nothing left.
Bakhumt was not a great loss for the russian army and you know it. Wagner took most of the losses and killed a hell of a lot more ukies in doing so. The Russian army is now probably stronger and very well equipped. And what are they doing? Killing thier men off and destroying thier equipment by a futile attack against the enemy? No, they are sitting in a defense watching the ukies die in mine fields.
You guys pro ukie guys are a sick lot. No matter what the reality is, no matter what facts are presented, your ideology drives you to believe in fairy tales.
Then what to do?
A. Ukies do the unexpected. Moab, Airborne assault, dirty bomb. But in the end, this is another Ardennes/Lam Son 719. It will not result in total victory and maybe the end.
B. If they were smart, pull back, and defend. Wait 3-4 years until they can re build and have an airforce.
If they continue their current course. Russians are going to bleed them out.
Shouldn't u them/they's be at a pride prade somewhere still talking about the ghost of keiv and they turtle island heros
Yes, let's pretend that 8 or 9 brigades have yet to be committed , or more sams aren't en route.
The Crimea bridge will soon be smashed by storm shadows then putins bluff #345 will be called
Over a hundred Russian paratroopers died yesterday in Kreminna, because they were told to attack westward without much of a plan.
The point was to see what they could achieve, but mostly it was a vain attempt to take pressure off from other places along the line.
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