Ukrayinska Pravda: Russians spent 60% of time and resources on their first line of defence, which was broken through by Ukraine's forces – Tarnavskyi
In an interview with the Observer, , Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group of Forces, said that the Russian forces spent 60% of their time and resources on the construction of the first line of defence, and only 20% for the second and third. Now the Ukrainian army is advancing on both sides of the breakthrough and are consolidating their positions.
According to Tarnavskyi, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now between the first and second defensive lines. "In the centre of the offensive, we are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line," he said.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: I am skeptical of these Ukrainian claims. They have been claiming a breakthrough for the past few weeks. But the deployment of an entire Russian army to this region tells me that they are not going to take any chances of a Ukrainian breakthrough .... Russian military deploy "reserve army" to send additional forces to southern Ukraine – ISW (Ukrainska Pravda).
Ukraine Claims Major Breakthrough In Southern Counteroffensive
Ukraine counteroffensive breaks through Russia's strongest defense line in south -- NYPost
‘Everything is ahead of us’: Ukraine breaks Russian stronghold’s first line of defence -- The Guardian
Ukraine troops are 'moving forward', Zelenskiy says in rebuff to critics -- Reuters
Zelensky: Despite what ‘anyone says’ counteroffensive is pushing forward -- Zelensky
74 comments:
They finally broke the 1st line ehh? What'd that take, 3 months? No words.
You wrote words.
The most heavily defended line , credit where credits due. Now Russia is scrambling to plug the breach
Credits due??? Yeah for all the dead! Oh yeah its Fatman. Dude WTF is wrong with you?
Ukraine is a farce its nationalism and army have already lost, soon Russia will invade even Israel if they give Ukraine weapons you can be sure, you never mess with a warlike superpower, Now the Russian national guard has weapons like the Wagner Group, imagine Putin using his entire army against Ukraine, he will die in a matter of weeks...
Upset be ause tiure prefiction that the war is over because they have no reserves is your false narrative yet again. They've achieved what even the U.S said they'd have trouble breaching .
The next 2 lines are nothing compared to this .
Imagine nato going to war against Russia..
I can imagine but prefer not too see it!
No one does , especially Putin
imagine Nato going to war against Russia?
Great idea faz.
Imagine being blinded by mushroom clouds.. you really are stupid.
If NATO went to war against Russia all the Russians would have are their ICBMs.
Look at it. Their airlift capacity is going to zero. Where is Russia going to park their IL-76s? Svalbard? North Pole?
If NATO promised Vladivostok to China, China would switch sides. Already China is redrawing maps. China redrew a map showing that it is reneging on a treaty with Russia that is not yet 20 years old. Russia is the Sickman of Eurasia.
Большо́й Уссури́йский о́стров
"Where Is Bolshoy Ussuriysky? Island at Heart of Russia-China Border Dispute"
www.newsweek.com/bolshoy-ussuriysky-island-russia-china-map-dispute-territory-1823763
It is not like Russia has a military presence in Siberia anymore. Well except for Russian units fleeing Ukrainian drone attacks so they can not be attrited or can be reconstituted.
"Now the Russian national guard has weapons like the Wagner Group"
Funny that. Fat Pigozhin claimed to not being supplied with weapons and ammo, which led to his criticism and eventual coup. Yet after the coup, Wagner turned in all sorts of heavy equipment.
the Wagner Bakhmut offensive ran out of steam and yet they still had all that equipment. But not Rosgyardiya ...
Obviously you are 12 and unfamiliar with MAD doctrine that has and always will keep nukes in the silos. Now crawl back under the bed and hide from the nuclear bogeyman
They keep on saying the other two lines of defence are not well fortified.
a. That is not really true. Look at what is out there
b. The Russians are not dumb. If they feel an area of the 1st defence line is venerable. They will do two things...Drop more scatterable mines, lots of scatterable mines, into that area. And also Re-enforce that area with more fire support and troops.
Be very careful of expectations in this situation.
The South Viets, at first, thought the battle of Lam Son 719 was going exceeding well....until it was not. Push too far without the sufficient mass of forces to protect your flanks and you get crushed from the sides.
The other problem here is that you are fighting in a land that narrows as it approaches the Crimea. This tightens the range and concentration for Artillery and air power. Not good for the Ukrainians as they lack to assets and ammo to hold up to the Russians.
They should have kept these forces for a stout defence. This is looking like a, no, it is... an effort in futility.
Like Sisyphus with the boulder, the result is always the same.
.
Yeah because wars are never conventional.. idiot
Their are mines but 2 per square metre like they faced , the worst has been breached.
"This is not a Zaporizhzhia or Kherson frontline in Ukrainie.
This is Russia, Buryatiya and flights of local people with Russian Forces over jade mine"
Russian Federation is breaking up.
Jade mining could bring great wealth.
It is alleged that much of the recruiting has fallen on minorities in Russia. Think of all the combat vets in Burytiya, they see that jade mine. Some oligarch has it or wants it. Explosive situation.
First Burytiya. Then Chechniya.
"The other problem here is that you are fighting in a land that narrows as it approaches the Crimea.
That is why Verbove is being take or is taken. Kopani is also under pressure. That widens the shoulders.
No Fazzy I am quite familiar with MAD doctrine. It works. That is why, hopefully, there will be no war with NATO. Because the chances of escalation are so great.
You also do not understand because you are an ideological brained individual and do not have the training or wit to play the "red team". side.
So here is part of "Red Team analysis"
The Ruskies will not yield. and if pushed they would probably decide to go down fighting. They were truly humiliated in the Yeltsin years. They see what western dominance would do to them and thier culture. They would rather choose war rather than Surrender or give back what they have taken. For them,,,,,,,This is a battle to the death
Watch Ruskie TV some time Faz.... It is a true learning experience.
Stuff you NEVER hear in the West.
It shows how much you are out of touch.
Listening to thier News talk shows, you find out that Putin is a Moderate, methodical man. The real radicals criticize Putin all the time. They say Russia is already at war with NATO so the thought is.....
"Let's do this, let's declare war on NATO and get it over with, because it is inevitable anyway."
If that does not concern you , you have no sense of perspective.
I've seen and heard the radicals , they have no power or very little influence over Putins decisions. It's obvious that Putin is a patriot but he is no idiot not is he suicidal. Ofcourse if nato sought to invade Russia the calculus would change , but a war with nato is entirely under putins control.
Putin has put out and had more red lines crossed than a 5 year olds colouring book . You might might wanna play back hus Feb 22 speech to recall what l mean.
Mad doctrine applies ..period , as for brainwashed well you say potato l say patata.
Tactical nukes a threat?
A verbal attack upon Fazman is a declaration of war on everyone.
MAD works? Electrons tunnel.
"Brace yourselves, because russians have once again showcased unparalleled innovation. What you are looking at is a satellite image featuring a TU-95 strategic bomber covered with car tires. According to them, this should protect strategic bombers from drones"
Sortie cycle time has been increased.
"A good view of the Russian defensive trench line near Novoprokopivka-Verbove which is being targeted by Ukrainian artillery and mortars."
Hard seeing those guys getting shelled. It is why I am in favor of assassination.
twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1698297890525868431
Who is going to replace those guys? Not the VDV. They had to plug Verbove.
BTW Ukrainians are going to make another lodgment over the river in Kherson preventing the Russians from shifting further troops.
That's right fazzy he has broken a lot odf his "red Lines"
Buy remember this also ...no one listened to Putin in Nov and December of 2021. In February 2022 the west figured out, he was not joking around.
Those radicals do have power and influence. But the key is that many do not even know they exist. This is what the editor tries to tell us, and it is confirmed. Putin is a moderate.
So Don't put too much faith in your "calculus" ...., but then again you can gamble all you want with the rest of the world since you are down in Australia. Wont affect you too much.
Those
NOT so DEEP, I'm a nuclear superpower.
https://twitter.com/RandallArlett/status/1698325045997666555
The 1994 secret operation that saved Crimea, and perhaps Ukraine, from Russian occupation
Excuses, excuses, excuses.
Russia has been trying to get Crimea since 1994 if not before. NATO expansion and red lines are an excuse.
My first boss told me "You catch more flies with honey than vinegar."
Apparently, Mr. I want my Way and I want it NOW! aka Mr. Tantrum never learned the lesson. He was schooled in the KGB.
"You catch more flies with honey than vinegar."
"The proverb has been traced back to G. Torriano's 'Common Place of Italian Proverbs' ."
So the proverb made its way from Italy to England and ultimately to America. For some odd reason, the proverb never made its way to Russia. Strange.
For those who think Russia doing ok, google about the massive brain drain that has taken place.
It's a total war for Ukraine. What did you think? No casualties? Come on man, make some sense.
The goal is to isolate Crim and the western areas and then conquer it. Then they can negotiate peace.
Oops! Marching Nazi Forgets His Lines – Tell Reporters He’s a Biden Supporter (VIDEO)
NAZIs exist in America. For Real man, not a joke.
Everytime I have looked up estiamtes of KKK & neo-NAZi verus Nationof Islam and other black racists groups, the latter always win hands down.
But power hungry libtards, who are the filth of the world, always decry the numbers of NeoNAZis and never the numbers of Black racists.
Liberals, the SHTS of the word, want to execerbate the problem not fix it.
So yes, Neo-NAZIS are home grown, naturally occurring or grassroots.
But here is the deal man. It seems that now many groups are astroturf. The government is behind them.
F_CK the Democrat Party
F_CK Brandon
The nice think about being a ukiebot is you're allowed to forget these claims within 24 hours of making them and nobody holds you to it.
NOT so DEEP, I'm a VDV paratrooper
https://twitter.com/RandallArlett/status/1698325045997666555
I love the smell of roasted Il-76 in the morning
UKR reports RU units driven from Klischiivka. Onto Optyne
The Russians are genius, man. I'm telling you! They are up-armoring their TU-95s with used tires!
Klischiivka
"The magenta line was the previous UA positions I had. Worth noting is that the Russians aim is not great, so impacts a the furthest position does not have to mean UA have consolidated positions there." - DM
I Note that when the editor does not post new stuff this site becomes a dumping ground for all sorts of crap remarks. Like mine.
No, poking fun at BLOBBER, but he took his marbles and went home, when the getting was good.
Also, put one across the bow of the indefatigable Democrat. The one who will join the neo-NAZIS as a true believe, if the TPM tells them to.
September 3, 2023 at 11:48 AM is a wise man
You always seem to forget that in every conflict the U.S has been involved in we have been the first to put our hand up .
This is still very much a wait and see operation. But at this point, if the Ukrainians did break thru the line would they be able to do anything afterwards considering their extremely high rate of casualties???
Got an answer for that one.?
The other thing is, and many on this thread do not see it.
This is exactly what the Russians want to happen.
Let the enemy try to take the defense lines and suffer horrible casualties. Just like at bakhmut. ..which they fought by probing attacks and then falling back to let artillery do the work.
This is the same. Letting artillery do the dirty work for you. Letting the enemy think he is gaining, when all the while, he is bleeding out.
UK Defense Intel reports that RU conscription officers have been confiscating the passports of Uzbek migrant builders in Mariupol-- to coerce them into joining the Russian military. Putin wishes to avoid unpopular mobilizations before the 2024 RU elections.
In other news the whole line is starting to move. Russia is bleeding out.
Russian artillery sucks. Haymakers and roundhouses.
18 hours later and still no sign of this reported breakthrough. Imagine that.
I'm sure Zelensky fired the minister of defense an hour ago to celebrate the successful operation too, huh?
641.
Your logic is absolutely impeccable!!!!!!
Russian artillery sucks. Yes that's the ticket!!
Give yourself a pat on the back!!
It sucks so bad and that is why so many Ukrainians are dead from it.
And Here's you SIGN!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣👻👻🤪🤪🤪
Why? Because in 2022 it was massive and it was continuous. Not so much anymore.
At the start of 2022, I expected the Russians to get all the way to Poltava.
Kleptocrat Putin made me look like a fool.
Why would you set your own advancement goals for a defensively positioned force? Just so you could say that they weren't met? Did you tell Putin that was what you expected?
I expect Zelensky to conquer Alabama by tomorrow. If he doesn't, pedophile Joe will make me look a fool.
This Russian unit tried to slip through behind enemy lines using a coast guard patrol boat, somewhere in Kherson Oblast but an Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 discovered them. The following strike killed 6 Russians and wounded two more.
I was using the Delphi method knowing that I had limited information.
I looked at the "correlation of forces", which was a big deal under the Soviets.
Advantage (If I remember correctly)
2 or 3 to 1 tanks
7 to 1 artillery
2 or 3 to 1 Helicopters
~5 to 1 aircraft
Russia could attack from 3 sides. North, South and East. Sort of like Poland in 1939 after Neville graciously gave Czechoslovakia to the Bavarian Corporal.
The Ukranians had more troops initially. and were dug in. Being dug in really did 't help against the artillery barrages las t summer around SeveroDonetsk
What really does help are mines. 5 to 1 payoff in cost. Mines backed by artillery and at least a screen of men to shoot at sappers or call in strikes.
But basically I was using correlation of forces. If I had made a quick military board game a la Avalon Hill, I might have done better. Especially If I could run it on a computer 20 or 30 times.
Logistics, MSR, ASR etc are of known importance, but it is hard to project out in thought experiment (Delphi method or reasoning). Thus the need for a simulation or a board game (sandbox).
What I have read is that the Russians are very good at air defense. That might be were. It is getting chewed up. The Russians are pulling an S-400 from Sakhalin Island to Ukraine.
Per WNU the Russians war gamed out sanctions before February 2022. So I will give Putin that. The Russians also benefitted from sanctions. When sanctions went into effect after 2014, they stopped shipping pork to Russia. That created or at least grew the Russian pork industry so that Russia is self sufficient and can export pork to China. Backfire!
I think Chris is right about sanctions when it comes to electronics. We shall see.
I do believe in the rule of thumb (from a SOF former spec ops and contributor) that if you have not beaten your enemy in 3 years, you are training them. There are exceptions. the Germans were trained in WW2 over 6 years and they still lost. But still that rule of thumb is good. Electronics might be somewhat harder to replace in 3 years. We shall see.
Sanctions have to be like Linebacker nor Rolling Thunder in my opinion to work. I thought targeted sanctions against individuals was smart and spared the average guy. I was wrong.
I do not being wrong about a prediction. As I learned in class all forecasts fail.
All of them.
It does not meant they are useless.
You can measure the utility of a forecast by how close or how far off it was for a given time period. So while forecast will fail, they are still useful.
With less information I expect the confidence interval of my reasoning to be large.
With more information I expect the confidence interval to be smaller (or tighter). If it is not then I am reasoning wrong or lack some key information.
Point is if I am using the Delphi method and I fail, It is not necessarily going to bum me out.
What does bum me out is that I read "The Prince", "1984", the iron law (sociology); kind of understood it, looked for it, saw some of it and still missed most of it. that is disconcerting.
I do not know where I will stand if I can stand. I do know Russia must not win. I also fear the US "winning". I think China and/or the Muslims will come out on top.
I also see WW1 & WW2 as useless fcking wars. WW2 was fought because of WW1. WW1 need not have happened. But maybe it did Black swans, mules and all.
The breakthrough is happening, plug in yiur lap top lol
Yep the attrition rate is heavily in Ukraine's favour , ofcourse Russia has more but the advantage is dwindling
ok bud, why must Russia not win?
Yeah ukranian generals are stupid they don't see or know anything
And how long did it take Russia to take Bakmut.
It took the Russians several months to take Bakhmut.
The Ukrainians need to push 5 or 10 miles more on somewhat broad front to interdict the MSR.
Once they do they will hit the Chondar area bridge and Kerch Bridges again. It will be an interdiction versus air defense battle.
You have to wonder if the Russians have rip stop (or how effective) for their defense lines. Rolling up the flanks once you penetrate a line is obvious to both sides and outside observers.
Ocheretuvate is under pressure. If it is taken, can Novopokopivka be held? Or will the salient be snapped off?
I saw a video of bridging equipment taking a hit from artillery. It was next to a destroyed country bridge. I can imagine the Russian soldiers are out of supply. If it were me, I would shoot at them not intending so much to hit or take their position but for them to fire back and waste ammunition. Let them get low on ammo and food. They can think about surrendering or exfil-ling out towards their rear area.
The video immediately impressed me. In Iraq many high overpasses were blown up to impede or prevent movement. Engineers used crushed rock and made it into a 4 way intersection. Except Ukraine is better watered. As mentioned before the Russians are very efficient at replacing railroad track, Can they replace numerous bridges to the front needed not just for MSRs & ASRs but to local troops?
Russia is an aggressive oligarchy. If it is not aggressive, it is at the very least recidivists, which for practical purposes is the same thing.
Here is what I said about all the 1sdt tier players.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_law_of_oligarchy
I really enjoy fckheads like Putin messing around above their paygrade and stealing all the oxygen in the room. It gives the fckheads over here cover.
Twenty years ago, I use to think Warren Buffet and Bill Gates were smart. Then I learned Gates bought DOS and did not create it. I also learned Buffet and Soros's intelligence only takes them so far. Then they have to rely of government or corruption to keep making decent gains with low risk. Putin is a must guy. He is so smart, he is constitutionally blind to what he does not know. Overall Putin is better, smarter guy than Biden. But that is not saying much because Biden is a zero.
Biden is a puppet anyway. One that they will soon discard for hair gel guy.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1698444334184484939
No food for you!
Really sucks for those guys.
Soon it may be "Planet of the Apes" or some such dystopia for all of us.
What impresses me is that the Ukrainians were smart enough to put out the video of something many civilians would see as something less than bait click. But the Russians have put out no such video.
The Krauts had a break through in the Ardennes Offensive too. That did not turn out real well.
I say that so you dont get your hopes up. Why? No sense in being disappointed again.
We will see . And no, the ukies are not dumb., smart people actually and the majority are good hearted. The people in charge????...that is another matter. Like the US.
..But they are out gunned , undertrained, undermanned and have no viable Air Force. Not good for the home team. That is why they are dying in mass.... Not because of that western bullshit of not deploying thier forces correctly.
Sorry to bring reality into this conversation. but that's just the way it is and all the hopium or ideological stone-walling or wishful thinking is going to change that.
The Krauts had no airpower at the time. The Allies had air superiority.
- The Ukrainians actually have more drones.
- the Russians have been aggressively using KA-53s to make up for their now dismal artillery. Because of it they are taking losses. By this fall they will take heavier losses for the KA-52s, once the AMRAAMS arrive. my prediction is that it will be very easy for a nugget to make colonel as helicopter pilot... if they survive.
40 or 50 KA-52s have been shot down. Production was about 200. Production is probably ongoing, but they are becoming scarce. It will be like seeing a unicorn.
Ukraine Has Shot Down A Quarter Of Russia’s Best Attack Helicopters Note the article date. It has gotten worse since then. There are other helicopters and those in turn will be shot down.
Ukrainians MIG 29s or F16s are going to climb, see a Russian helo hiding behind a tree line or hill, and they are going to hit it. Life expectancy for a Russian helo pilot is less than that of a 2nd looie in Vietnam.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamov_Ka-50
No more flying field artillery for Ivan.
The Russian trenches? They are pathetic. A Russian soldier being sent to the trench is being sent to die. It is like shooting fish in a barrel or fish in a trench. Most of the real action, the scary action takes place in the tree lines.
Sorry to bring reality into this conversation.
Lost another one Damn it!
"Russians lost another Kamov Ka-52. According to the Russian TG Channel "Baza", the Ka-52 crashed 1.5 km from the coast of the Azov Sea (likely near their base in Berdyansk), due to heavy fog. Both crewmembers made it out alive."
Russian avionics is not that bad. I think the avionics were compromised due to battle damage.
MI-24s cannot due what the KA-53s and MI-28s can do. So this will sting.
I do not know. The MI24 Hind used to be called the flying tank. It was a feared piece of machinery.
As for the guy saying the Allies had air superiority. That is true. But you forget, either intentionally or un intentionally, that the Germans purposely attacked during non-flying snow storm weather. So your analogy is not a true comparison.
Russian trenches are pathetic? What are you, the Trench engineer?
In 12 months I have yet to seen one Ukrainian bunker or Trench that was up to Field manual standards. With the Ukrainian ukie supply system , I doubt you will ever see one. The russians have better.
If the russian defenses are so poor , then why have the ukies not pushed thru? And what are so many ukies dead and wounded.
Dont believe me? Good, here is a nice confirmation.
Read the latest Kiev Independent?
https://kyivindependent.com/new-brigade-bears-heavy-brunt-of-russias-onslaught-in-kharkiv-oblast/
This is a pro Ukie source, so you cannot say it is russian propaganda.
Russian trenches are pathetic? What are you, the Trench engineer?
No, but I have seen videos. It is pathetic. I just watch 3 or 4 guys get hunted in a trench using air burst artillery shells. It is hard to watch, but is what must be until assassination of leaders is on the table.
the hunting happens at the squad level (Russian squad versus 1 Ukrainians early in the war or at the company level near Robotyne where some Russians bought it.
Drone spotters and artillery is bad combo.
You are better off in a tree line. It is slightly more survivable. But that is no fun at night with infrared.
The MI24 Hind used to be called the flying tank.
My answer to the MI-24, T-72, or T-82 is to run. So yes, I fear them and respect them.
That said the MI-24 cannot use the same ordinance to take out armored vehicles that the MI-28 and KA-52 can. Thus my comment.
"then why have the ukies not pushed thru?"
Mines backed by some artillery. That's it nothing more.
Once the artillery is gone, the Russians are FUBAR.
Mines and trenches just slow things. Any barrier is just a speed bump whether it is the southern border Wall or a Russian trench unless properly manned.
Kind shocked how a bunch of Russians were caught in the open south of Verbove headed north. fucking useless waste of life. They must really need reinforcements fast if they pull that shit.
7 to 1 Russian artillery advantage should have won by now. It is very big. You must no know how to use it.
Or you do not have that advantage now. More like 1 to 1 now?
That's very nice. But your answers have holes.
You say it's just mines and arty. Then you say mines are no good without proper manning.
But if Russian fortifications are not that good or the Russian covering fire is not that good, how is it the ukies have not pushed thru yet. Been 3 months.
Best western eguopment and training money can buy. Big game changer stuff. Thats what we were told.
Now three months later. Where is that victory at the shores of the Azov?
The manning is 3rd in importance. They are there just to keep sappers honest.
In 3 months the Ukrainians have gone farther and got more land than happened during the Russian Bakhmut Offensive.
Where are those Russians now? Their graves desecrated. their leader blown up by state security apparatus.
If those graves are desecrated then it just proves the point that those in charge in the Ukraine are ghouls ,thugs and miscreants, unworthy of the legacy of 2000 years of sacrifice to create western civilization.
No manning is not just to keep sappers honest. If you had a modicum of military training you would know that obstacles are useless.... unless covered by direct and indirect fire. Troops guard those obstacles. They must defend them and you cannot discount that. It shows ignorance on your part.
Ukraine is a sinking ship
Those graves are in Russia. Only a matter of time before Putin's غُول dig them up and serve them to you as Soylent Green.
306.
Dont try to turn this around you dolt.
You admitted yourself that the ukies would do this. Are you mental and incapable of memory or coherent thought?
you truly are ignorant. Those graves will not be touched by the russians. You admitted yourself that the ukies are the vindictive orcs in this senerio.
I was shocked that Putin would do that. There is video of the trashed Wagner graveyards in Russia.
note IN RUSSIA
Now orc, go play in the traffic
where....
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