Zero Hedge: Map Shows Another Key Ukraine City Almost Fully Encircled By 40K Russian Troops
More evidence has emerged this week that Russia is poised to soon solidify hold over all of the Donetsk region, in yet more bad news for Ukraine, after its struggled to make any gains at all for the last six months.
Newly published military maps show that Russian forces are in the midst of a large pincer move involving some 40,000 troops closing in on the key city of Avdiivka, which has long been a Moscow objective since the war's start.
Read more ....
Update #1: 40,000 Russian troops poised for major assault on Avdiivka (The Telegraph)
Update #2: Ukraine War Maps Show Gains, Losses This Week as Avdiivka Teeters on Brink (Newsweek)
WNU Editor: The fall of Avdivka will be a major blow to the Ukraine Army. I give it a few months.
20 comments:
Damn look at that salient. Would not want to be there. If that goes on for months the casualties will be horrible, though that is generally Russias plan
If you look at the Map you see that all the roads going in and out are now under the Russian artillery umbrella.
The Ukrainian 110th brigade , who is in sector, reported that their Command Group and headquarters departed the battle zone and did not take the troops with them. How nice. We will see how this turns out. The editor gives this a few months. I give it 30-60 days.
Another slaughter for the Ukes. Hope Zelensky is worth it for them.
It is the hardest point of defense on the entire front. The best tunnels and bunkers $200 billion dollars can buy. Daily artillery and mortar bombardments from Avdiivka into the Donetsk suburbs for the last 9 years have given the Russians ample reason to want to capture it, and despite being within spitting distance of the rebel capital, they haven't even attempted it until now.
In the past, places like Bakhmut and Severodonestk were only ever semi-encircled like the map shows currently, and then used as a 3-direction kill box for as long as Ukrainian command was willing to oblige. Eventually they were abandoned because it made sense to abandon them.
In Avdiivka, however, it represents the hardest fortification in all of Ukraine. There is no better place to make your stand. There will be no chatter from the political class that it's an "insignificant city" or that the blood spilled would be better spent fighting on more defendable terrain, as happened with Bakhmut. There is no mightier fortress in Ukraine than Avdiivka. It's been prepared for this battle for nearly a decade and it really feels like this is the battle where neither side will run.
The Russian marshalled 40,000 In month they lost 10,000.
in a few months that WNU throws out there it will have lost 30,000.
Think of it. 30,000 out of 40,000. They will have lost 75% of the attacking force. Only a Russian could think of it as success. And only a stupid, goose stepping, totalitarian Russian would.
If Biden "lost" Afghanistan and we passed the mile marker about 3 or 4 days ago and are officially in an election year, what are the chances that Biden wants to loose Ukraine?
Sort of an alpha and omega to his presidency. I do not think he could stand an alpha and omega campaign commercial with those words.
The US was doing 14,000 artillery shells per month. Not they are doing 80,000. Word is that they could do more, but the contractors want to see that the demand is not a blip. Meanwhile the Russians are relying on the North Koreans. 10 years ago the North shelled the South in another Soviet/Russian-esque provocation. The dud rate was quite high.
Colonel Yan Sukhanov, was Chief of Staff of the 810th Brigade died in Moscow on November the 8th/.
The 810th is in Krynky. Wait, no they are not. They lost it. They are trying to get it back.
So did Yan die of a heart attack or was he executed for failure?
What happens to the trolls, when they fail?
Yan wasn't executed. It appears he was evacuated after being wounded. chief of Staff on the front lines and the Russians are still losing in Kherson.
It seems Murz already fell out of a window. The http://t.me link you provided is dead
Murz was not executed. He was sent to a meat battalion.
The losses here are not unusual. If and that is a big IF, the Russians did lose 10,000 men in the last month, it should not come as a surprise.
But the russians have not lost 30,000 men yet. maybe the will in the next 3 months , or maybe not.
The Ukrainians lost approximately 90, 000 men on the recent offensive Jun to October. ( 5 months) , which equals about 18,000 casualties a month.
This new form of warfare is a throw back to WW2 and WW1.
"The losses here are not unusual. If and that is a big IF, the Russians did lose 10,000 men in the last month, it should not come as a surprise."
Ha ha
Troll told big funny.
Like the "big IF" part. At least unlike Biden the Troll can stay on message of the Ukrainians are taking more casualties than the Russians or "It does not matter if we trade 1 for 1" because Russia has more men.
Nowhere in there does it show that Russia was justified in invading nor that with their material advantages that they should have won by now Western aid or no.
Even before Bakhmut fell I wrote here about this development around Avdivka. The counter offensive must have slowed the Russians down..
803
You make a statement that you know the truth. So what is the truth then? Where did your get your facts concerning Russian casualties?
You also try to steer the issue with totally different issues, such as the reasons for the invasion itself and the ideas of material advantage.
Now what does that mean? It means....
You are a dumb-ass rock head who does not know what the F they are talking about. Otherwise you would have stayed on task and defended your Russian casualty numbers. But those are all fiction and you got those numbers when they magically appeared after you had another snort of airplane glue.
Wake up Troll-on -the -brain. It aint going to get easier.
Catamite,
A lot of stuff is geo confirmed.
There also rules of thumb such as tanks to infantry ratio. X amount of tanks destroyed usually means y number of infantry is dead. It is a rough estimator. But since Russia lockdown its social media, journalists and people in the best of NAZI traditions, it is what we have.
The tank infantry ratio is one estimator. There are others. You can use them to check the rough validity of each other.
The tank thing. There are several people or groups that geoconfim tank, BMP, artillery and other losses. Oryx is just one of them.
There are so many indicators such as the Russians being kicked out of the Western black Sea. that was not some rope-a-dope strategy. That was them kicking and screaming being thrown out. It has consequences. what are you going to tell those poor souls on Kinburn Spit that are going to be left dying on the vine. you will be brave, but of course you will. YOu are not starving.
Trolls on the brain. It is reality that trolls are allover. the have AI trolls posting on climate change. If they will do that for climate change you know they would do it for war. Plus it is well know that the Kremlin pays people to post on social media. the more followers the have, the more they get.
WNU is another Anna Chapman. Only without the plumbing and the good looks. That's it. It has been one long con.
That's nice hero
Now for a dose of reality. NO ONE knows the real casualty figures. The best you can do is look at funeral notices or "have you seen my lost soldier" posts and take a count.
Which the BBC is trying to do. How good is it? No one knows.
'As for the weapons counts, that is up in the air too. Unless you know how to examine photos you do not know if it is a new kill or 2 weeks old. The videos are the best bet, but how many of them are fake or repeats?
So how do you figure out who is winning or stronger? The one who is taking territory.
That has been true for every war. So at the present time who is winning? Looks like the russians
Are they getting slaughtered doing it? may be. The Japanese won the siege of Port Arthur too.
As an aside
Even though General Nogi Maresuke won the battle. The losses were horrendous. He personally apologized to the Emerpor for the men who died at his command at Port Arthur, and asked permission to kill himself.
The Emperor denied his request and stated you must live at least until I die.
When the Emperor Meji died, General Nogi Maresuke committed suicide on the same day. He was a true soldier, loyal, respectful , dedicated to his men, people and country.
You wont see any of these new selfish butchers , on either side , doing that any time soon.
I have yet to see one leader in this war to match General Vladimir Kappel and probably will not see one either.
"Now for a dose of reality. NO ONE knows the real casualty figures. The best you can do is look at funeral notices or "have you seen my lost soldier" posts and take a count."
Counting funerary notices is one method. counting tanks kills is another method. I already said there are multiple methods> Yet, here you are lying. But of course you are. You are a troll.
I saw a documentary of the 6th Panzer army on it way to Stalingrad. They said that the army was bleeding long before the Soviet offensive. They took a lot of ground and held it for 2 years. Then the end.
It is instructive that things are going so poorly for Russian in Kherson. Such small beachheads and they cannot throw them back, but get mauled, severely mauled instead.
left out an important part 225
So how do you figure out who is winning or stronger? The one who is taking territory.
The Germans were taking territory right up until November 1942. So by your strawman , they were winning.
There is a French word you should learn starts with den.
the situation you refer to is called....... change.
You are right. The Germans were the stronger until "that point of time," Nov 1942.
Then the germans hit their culminating point and it was down hill from there.
What I said is not a strawman. It is a point of fact.
So how do you figure out who is winning or stronger? The one who is taking territory
OOOOOOOh! OOOOH, I can write culminating point like the analysts at ISW! Look at me!
Dumb! Look up the French word.
Culminating point is uttered by the same type of people, who utter profit taking.
Post a Comment