Zero Hedge: Ukraine's Fate Will Be Decided In Coming Year, Top Zelensky Aide Admits
In surprisingly blunt words, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the coming year will essentially decide the fate of Ukraine and its war with Russia.
"A turning point in the war is approaching," Andrii Yermak, who serves as chief of staff for the Office of the President of Ukraine, said Monday. "The next year will be decisive in this regard." He issued the words while appealing for more urgent aid from Washington in an address to the hawkish DC-based Hudson Institute think tank.
Yermak sought to assure the audience that Zelensky has "a clear plan" forward even as Western media has by and large soured on Kiev's prospects for success. Much of this is about Zelensky sending envoys to do damage control in Washington at a moment the US administration's focus is off Ukraine and on Gaza events instead.
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WNU Editor: My sources tell me that they easily see this war going into 2025. Ukraine has suffered terrible losses this year (so has Russia), but Kyiv still has a huge pool of people to draw upon to continue the war. Ukraine also has a lot of weapons and ammunition. But the war has shifted in Russia's favor, and with their greater resources, control of the skies, and simply having more fire power, the war will end on Moscow's terms.
8 comments:
You better go over to Moon of Alabama and take a look at yesterdays post which includes a Ukrainian population graph. Look at the population of 20-30 year olds.
Then subtract into that population all the millions who have fled. Than all those killed, wounded and currently serving.
You say Kiev has a large population pool? Then of who? females, yes. Old men ? yes. And how long is that going to carry the war effort?
I ask you this. Does Ukraine have the ability to launch a significant offensive? Meaning do they have the manpower and arms to take back Donbas, not to mention Crimea?
But the war has shifted in Russia's favor, and with their greater resources, so let Russia have Estonia.
Rinse Repeat
But the war has shifted in Russia's favor, and with their greater resources, so let Russia have Latvia.
Rinse Repeat
But the war has shifted in Russia's favor, and with their greater resources, so let Russia have Lithuania.
Rinse Repeat
Might makes Right
Arbeit Macht Frei
Russia must be defeated. Trimming its claws so it cannot aggress for 10 years is a foolish move. A bleeding operation is a foolish move.
Take a bush that has many dead branches and is not shooting forth too many new ones. Seems like it is dying. Prune all those dead branches away and the same bush puts forth all sorts of new growth. Russia can do the same even though Putin in Hitler's second coming.
Russia must be defeated.
Like many of WNU Editor's comments, this has more the look of what he wants to be the truth than the actual facts.
The war has not shifted in Russia's favor. Russia just has the initiative now after Ukraine's own offensives have culminated. But they are not making much headway and are taking heavy casualties. Bakhmut - whose battle still hasn't actually ended - was a Pyrrhic victory that saw atrocious casualties for unimportant tactical gains but not strategic advantage. Once Russia's current offensive culminate, the initiative will swing back to Ukraine.
Russia does not have control over the skies. Both sides practice aerial denial. Russian warplanes don't dare cross into Ukrainian airspace. Russia simply has a slight tactical advantage because its aircraft can get closer to the battlefield and drop munitions. But because of ATACMs Russia has had to move their aircraft farther back. And once Ukraine gets its F-16s, the F-16's superior radar range and missile range will eliminate that. We'll have to see how well Russia's missile attacks strike Ukraine's civilian infrastructure this winter, but we also know that Ukraine also has a deterrent force that can strike deep within Russia now too. So it is air parity with a slight Russian advantage right now which will likely become air parity with a slight Ukrainian advantage in the future.
Russia does have a material advantage right now, but much less so than at the beginning of the war. Russia is using up huge amounts of its leftover (obsolete) stock of equipment. Its production advantage will disappear once NATO countries manage to scale up production. It takes a while to reverse decades of neglect. But once that's done, Russia will not be able to outproduce NATO.
Western support and training has been insufficient to allow Ukraine to quickly win the war, but the clear trend is that Ukraine has increased its capabilities while Russian capabilities have declined.
Around this time last year, WNU Editor was crowing that 1) Bakhmut was going to fall within weeks, 2) it would lead to trapping tends of thousands of Ukrainian troops, 3) Russia had artillery superiority everywhere, and 4) a brand new Russian Army was going to strike west from Belgorad and threaten to encircle and destroy the entire Ukrainian army.
Instead what happened was that 1) Bakhmut didn't fall until half a year later, 2) there was no encirclement but incredible Russian losses that would eventually lead to a mutiny by Wagner that would see that organization disbanded and its leaders killed, 3) Russia would lose its artillery advantage to Ukraine, and 4) it became obvious no such new Russian army existed as Russian troops were sent into meatgrinder assaults with inadequate training and equipment.
While I used to think Russian losses (as reported by Ukraine) would reach 300k by the 2nd anniversary of the war in February, not only has that threshold already been reached, if the current pace is kept it'll reach 350k by the end of the year and almost 400k by the second anniversary. That pace of loss cannot be sustained for long. A war that lasts until 2025 would have appalling losses for Russia.
For all of the serious problems Ukraine is facing, Russia is facing its own problems that are just as serious if not more. While it is entirely possible that the war could end in a negotiated settlement that will have some bitter things for Ukraine, the idea that Russia will dictate terms is a fantasy.
Chris
Winter is coming. It will be harder on the Ukrainian citizens then the Russians. So far Winter is very early for much of the country. IF this portends what winter will be like for eastern Europe, then Ukraine is in for a tough couple of months.
350k losses for Russia eh? Keep drinking the kool aid Bud.
Yes. Eventually Ukraine will wake up to the genocide being committed on them by NATO and stand up to the puppet regime. The families of the dead know what’s going on and will want justice and revenge
That 350000 number is directly from the AFU propaganda sheet. Just like most of the other things said in this thread.. Its trash. But who cares , these ukie rah rahs have been wrong every time.
And the surprising part is that they keep on repeating the same "russian is dying" story, thinking the situation is going to change.
It's not, the Ukrainians are going to lose this war. The knuckleheads on this blog, like there progressive allies, will never admit they were wrong, they will just spew more garbage.
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