.@WSJ uses ISW CoT data to map & report on 🇺🇦's cross-river #Dnipro ops., which have the potential to “advance into territory where #Russian defenses are less extensive than those further east that blunted the main thrust of #Ukraine’s counteroffensive.” https://t.co/GrR3zjU75T pic.twitter.com/1JeTr5ekLP
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 15, 2023
Southern #Ukraine 🧵
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 15, 2023
Ukrainian forces continued ground operations on the east (left) bank of #Kherson Obl on Nov. 14 & made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage posted on Nov. 13 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced in Krynky (30km NE of Kherson City). https://t.co/1egXjjMC25 https://t.co/79ADwIcsHO pic.twitter.com/k2lIIdPL0K
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Seeks to Reignite Counteroffensive With Daring River Crossings
Ukrainian toeholds across Dnipro River in the south are rare bright spot
KHERSON, Ukraine—Ukrainian marines slip across the Dnipro River at night in small groups to reinforce a growing contingent of troops engaged in a daring operation to reinvigorate Kyiv’s military efforts in the occupied south.
They have established three toeholds in and around villages on the eastern bank of the river in recent weeks, cutting off a road Russia uses to supply troops in the area, according to soldiers involved in the operation. The Ukrainians are hunkered down in basements and trenches and heavily outnumbered. Their hold is precarious.
Still, it is a rare bright spot for Kyiv amid a number of somber developments, including the failure of its counteroffensive to gain much ground, a new Russian offensive in the east and uncertainty over additional military aid from the U.S., Ukraine’s most important backer. Ukraine first publicly acknowledged the cross-river operation this week.
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WNU Editor: Russian military bloggers have been covering this story for the past month. Bottom line. These river crossings will not change the tide of the war. The real battles and bloodshed is happening in the east.
Update: We shall see .... Russia says ‘hell’ awaits Ukrainians after confirming they’ve crossed the Dnieper river into occupied territory (CNBC).
7 comments:
Bottom line Russia has had to pulled large units off the line at Robotyne and send them south.
Bottom line pushing the Russian back from the river saves civilian lives. Russia indisrciminately shells civilian towns.
Part of the reason that Ukrainian counter battery is better than Russian counter batter is that they are better. Another reason is because Russia wastes shells and effort shelling civilians and exposes themselves to counter battery.
Does WNU get off on it?
Actually, there are 4 toe holds. For killing Russians at a high kill ratio and bleeding units form other Russian areas, the 4 dismissively labeled toe holds are doing their job.
At this point, it is too early do determine what impact these crossings will have. If the Ukrainians are able to push the Russians far enough from the Dnieper so that the Ukrainians can repair the actual bridges and build pontoon bridges to support operations east, then they can outflank the Russian defenses or at least pull Russian troops away from the east. If the Russians are still able to threaten destroying any Ukrainian bridges over the river then it won't lead to much.
What it does show is that right now Russia does not have enough forces to hold the line everywhere. They stripped the Dnieper front thinking Ukraine could not attack. Now they are hoping the Ukrainian attack won't lead to much. The Russians have staked a lot on their attacks around Avdiivka and elsewhere. They have expended a LOT of armor, vehicles, artillery, airpower, and troops and so far have little to show for it. A lot of Russian reserves are being squandered. You can only accept 70-80% casualties for your units for so long.
No reason for the Russians to panic just yet, but they should be legitimately concerned with what might happen. Putin won't order any new mobilizations until after the presidential "elections" in March. And then if he does, it'll be even longer before the mobilized can be equipped and trained (by current Russian standards which is very low). That's a long time before Russia can recover its manpower losses.
Chris
😂 Ukraine is losing this war and you are high on copium. Keep on wishing harder and maybe, just maybe you can will into existence a Russian defeat in Ukraine 😂
Ukraine l8sing and Russia winning are 2 different things, by what yardstick is Russia winning?
Well lets see.
RUSSIANS still hold Crimea and have a large part of the Donbass I. Thier possession to include some major cities. I think that is a good yard stick.
the other part is that Ukrainian is an economic and political basket case which relies on US and EU funding just to barley survive. A good analogy would be a corpse on life support or zombie government/economy.
Well the only thing that made sense was that the comment.
"Russia does not have enough forces to hold the line everywhere."
True of any military operation in history. You cannot be everywhere at once.
What MR. arm chair, non combat , fails to mention is "economy of force" operations. Look it up sometime.
It makes sense when your main effort is somewhere else.... like Adeevka.
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