America's Troubled Allies

Three Troubled Allies, One Superpower -- Ian Bremmer, Wall Street Journal

Japan, Israel and Britain are facing big problems of their own just as the U.S. needs their help.

There are three big unfolding stories for international politics and the global economy: The next stage of China's rise, the continuing turmoil in the Middle East and the redesign of Europe. The three countries with the most to lose from these trends are, respectively, Japan, Israel and Britain. They also happen to be America's most reliable allies in the world's three most important regions. As 2013 unfolds, the special relationships that these countries enjoy with Washington won't protect them from the worst effects of these sweeping changes. That is also bad news for U.S. foreign policy.

The further expansion of China's political, economic and military power leaves Japan in an increasingly tough spot. The broadening and deepening of China's consumer market creates critical opportunities for Japanese companies, but Beijing's new assertiveness, particularly on territorial disputes involving Japan, is fueling nationalist anger inside both countries.

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My Comment: A sobering assessment .... read it all.

Are We Repeating History?

French troops in the trenches in Verdun during World War I

Eve of Disaster -- Charles Emmerson, Foreign Policy

Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913, on the cusp of the Great War.

The leading power of the age is in relative decline, beset by political crisis at home and by steadily eroding economic prowess. Rising powers are jostling for position in the four corners of the world, some seeking a new place for themselves within the current global order, others questioning its very legitimacy. Democracy and despotism are locked in uneasy competition. A world economy is interconnected as never before by flows of money, trade, and people, and by the unprecedented spread of new, distance-destroying technologies. A global society, perhaps even a global moral consciousness, is emerging as a result. Small-town America rails at the excessive power of Wall Street. Asia is rising once again. And, yes, there's trouble in the Middle East.

Sound familiar?

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My Comment: It is very hard for me to visualize in today' world a war between two and/or more major powers. Conflicts like Afghanistan or civil wars like Syria .... yes .... and if there is to be a big war, it will be between India and Pakistan. But a war between two major powers like the U.S. and China, the U.S. and Russia, Russia and China, China and Japan, NATO and Russia/China, etc. .... no. And on this matter .... fortunately .... we are not like 1913.

Rise Of The Middle Powers

The Rise Of The Middle Powers -- Bruce Gilley, New York Times

THE biggest news to emerge from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s visit to Asia last week came at a news conference with the Indonesian foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa. Mrs. Clinton acknowledged that Washington accepts Jakarta’s “leadership” in resolving the territorial disputes over the South China Sea — disputes that have led to bellicose rhetoric from China, Vietnam and the Philippines in recent months. A State Department official later told reporters that, in Washington’s view, “the leading state in the effort is clearly Indonesia.”

But Mr. Natalegawa emphasized that this leadership role “is not meant to be at the expense of any other party. It’s not about us rallying around to counter or to put any other country on the spot or to put them in a corner.”

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My Comment: The "middle powers" are stepping up because the big powers are stepping down. In this vacuum many of these nations are now stepping in with a focus on their own regional issues .... and making decisions independent of what the big powers may prefer. I predict that this trend will continue .... until this rigional "middle powers" start quarreling among themselves.

The Consequences Of Waging War In Secret

Image credit: Reuters

Waging War in Secret vs. American Democracy -- Conor Friedersdorf, The Atlantic

By fighting terrorism with covert CIA actions, President Obama deprives us of the ability to meaningfully evaluate American foreign policy.

The War in Iraq is mostly over. We're drawing down forces in Afghanistan. Barring an unexpected terrorist attack or another Libya-style troop deployment, Election 2012 will proceed in a world where the War on Terrorism is being waged by intelligence agencies making drone strikes in places like Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, and one in which we may be taking covert action inside Iran too.

In others words, much of American foreign policy will be a state secret.

Think about what that means for democracy.

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My Comment: While I doubt that U.S. policy will change if the Republicans gain the White House, I do have confidence that if President Obama is defeated in this year's election Democrats in Congress and in the media will not be as compliant as they are now, and will be more open to report the news that some in government may wish to keep secret.

How Good Intentions Can Sometimes Produce Something Worse

Ethiopan women, seen in a thick fog in this 2004 file photo, carry wood to their homes near Korom, northeast Ethiopia. Aid to help the severe poverty and hunger in Ethiopia has been diverted to support Ethiopia's totalitarian regime, says a new report from Human Rights Watch: Aid-funded education programs have been turned into government ideology reeducation camps; feed-the-poor projects are used to deprive the regime’s opponents of food; aid money is spent to ‘retrain’ judges and teachers. Radu Sigheti/Reuters

Ethiopia Shows The Damage That Aid Can Do -- Christian Science Monitor

The Ethiopian government is using western aid money to create a totalitarian regime, says Human Rights Watch.

Human Rights Watch have published a timely report on the use of foreign aid money by the Ethiopian government in repressing political opposition. Last week we spoke out against this country's mistaken aid policy, and this report shows why the need by the West to rethink its aid policies is so urgent.

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My Comment: This is not the first case of foreign aid going somewhere else .... nor will it be the last. For me .... the worse case of food aid going to a country that should not receive any is North Korea. Everyone knows that this assistance will only go to the elites and those who are obedient to the state (i.e. the ones who created the mess in the first place) .... and not to those who desperately need it. But after a three year lull, food aid to North Korea is resuming again.

Hiroshima, 2.0 -- A Commentary

From Wall Street Journal:

"Gentlemen," Henry Stimson once said, "don't read each other's mail." Neither do gentlemen hack into each other's computers, electric grids, military networks and other critical infrastructure.

Ours is not a world of gentlemen.

Stimson was referring to cryptanalysis, or code-breaking, which he forbade as Herbert Hoover's Secretary of State. (He would revisit that opinion as Franklin Roosevelt's Secretary of War.) I am referring to Siobhan Gorman's front-page story in last Wednesday's Journal, in which she reported widespread cyberspying of the U.S. electricity grid, much of it apparently originating in China and Russia.

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