Is President Trump's Attempt To Develop A Detente With Russia Upsetting The Balance Of Power?

Kambiz Foroohar, Bloomberg: UN Braces as Trump’s Detente With Russia Upsets Balance of Power

* Historic alliance between U.S., U.K. and France seen at risk
* Foreign diplomats are said to be ‘flying blind’ with Trump

President Donald Trump’s outreach to Russia is reverberating through the United Nations, where U.S. allies worry that a partnership between Washington and Moscow could undermine a historic balance of power dating to the early days of the Cold War.

For decades, the five veto-wielding members of the 15-nation Security Council have fallen into two camps -- France, the U.K. and the U.S., referred to as the P3, on one side and Russia and China on the other.

Just days into his presidency, Trump is upsetting all that.

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WNU Editor: Too early to say that the U.S. is entering a period of "detente" with Russia .... but I know that many in the Kremlin are hoping that this will be the case. As for the role of China and Russia in the Security Council .... they are making it very clear that they want the U.S. to join them .... Russia And China Wants The U.S. To Join Them To Split Up The World (January 26, 2017). If such an alliance ever comes to past (which I do not see happening now .... but later .... who knows what the future holds).... the UN will definitely then become a minor payer.

Detente 2.0 (An Update)

WNU Editor: A lot has happened since this post was put up last week .... Should The West Push A New Policy Of Detente With Russia? (August 4, 2016). To begin .... Jeffrey Taylor at the Atlantic put up a similar post post a few days later .... The Time Is Ripe for Détente, 2.0 (The Atlantic), and I have been receiving feedback from some WNU readers who are in the U.S. foreign policy establishment who have shifted their positions (in just one week) that maybe a different approach should be undertaken with  Russia to lessen tensions.

I personally hope this is the case .... a reset between the West and Russia is badly needed, because the alternative .... another Cold War .... would not only be incredibly destabilising to all of Europe, but it would also open the door to the nightmare scenario of a possible major war.

In closing .... special kudos to Gabriel Elefteriu for getting the conversation going. His post .... Détente 2.0: Playing the long game with a rearmed Russia .... is a must read.

Should The West Push A New Policy Of Detente With Russia?

Gabriel Elefteriu: Détente 2.0: Playing the long game with a rearmed Russia

We have no long-term strategy to deal with Moscow. Kissinger’s original concept of détente can help.

On 28 April the lower house of the French parliament voted through a (thankfully, non-binding) resolution to lift sanctions on Russia. Not longer ago than March, John Kerry’s visit to Moscow occasioned talk of a possible new “thaw” between the Kremlin and Washington. Even the NATO-Russia council has been revived recent weeks. These are not freak political “accidents” but simply expressions of an obvious reality: the relationship with Moscow is complex and sometimes contradictory, particularly given the growing diversity of NATO’s membership. A varying level of openness for conciliation with Russia, whether driven by political preference or interest and necessity, will always exist within the alliance. While the approaching NATO summit, with its displays of cohesion and robust language on Russia, has now placed a lid over some of these tendencies, we can expect them to resurface sooner or later.

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WNU Editor: This is my must read post for today. The author of this report .... Gabriel Elefteriu .... asked me to review his post ... and I am glad that he did. It brought back memories that I have forgotten, and a reminder on how important detente was in de-escalating West-Soviet tensions at a time when war .... and a nuclear one at that .... was a real possibility. When I started working for the Soviet Foreign Office .... I can say without any hesitation that the policy of detente was working .... and it worked because it benefited both sides. There were rough roads that needed to be passed .... and speaking on behalf of the Soviet side .... the older generation had no confidence or faith that detente would work. But there was nothing to be lost if detente was to be pursued .... and the argument was made that there was much to be gained. What I did not like personally about the policy of detente was that it cemented the status quo .... many of us in the Soviet Union wanted reform .... but detente was used by many in the Soviet establishment to make the argument that because of national security considerations and the current state of international relations .... nothing was going to change. In the end it did change .... and the best part of this story is that this change did not result in a catastrophic war that many of us feared at the time would happen. But there were rough patches during that time .... and no one knew for sure where it was all going to end.

Flash forward to today .... we live in a different world. The Soviet Union is gone, and the Russia of today is a completely different country. But some of the old historical grievances are still with us .... and it is these grievances (in Ukraine and in the Baltics to name a few) that the old Cold War rhetoric and thinking is coming back. Can this trend be stopped .... yes .... but for it to be done successfully the West will have to engage directly with Russian President Putin, and it has to be ready to sacrifice and/or back-track on some policies. Will this happen .... I am personally optimistic that a new policy of detente is workable. I know that Putin's foreign policy priority right now is (1) to get rid of sanctions, and more importantly (2) to avoid another Cold War. Detente is a good platform for this to happen .... but for it to be successful it has to be implemented now .... and it has to be done in a neutral and non-partisan way. Will this happen .... I do not know .... but eventually an understanding between the West and Russia will have to be ironed out .... so why not do it now when emotions are low and everyone is enjoying the summer. And yes .... to also do it with an altitude that this is going to be a long tern project.