Why The Over-the-Horizon War of 2021 Will Be Difficult, Long, And Costly

United States President Joe Biden delivers remarks on Afghanistan during a speech in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, DC, the United States, on August 31, 2021 [Carlos Barria/Reuters] 31 Aug 2021  

Lawfare: The dawn of America’s latest (“forever”?) conflict: the Over-the-Horizon War of 2021 

Ending a “forever war?” Forget it. It seems we are now embarking upon a new conflict, and one that—even if successful—will be difficult, long, and costly: the Over-the-Horizon (OTH) War of 2021. 

In this second installment of our series analyzing the Afghanistan disaster (see Part 1 here) , let’s unpack the implications of some of President Biden’s recent statements about his intention to use OTH capabilities against terrorists. 

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WNU Editor: A sobering read on why President Biden's push for "over-the-horizon" operations will not be be easy to implement.

U.S. Defense Secretary Austin: The Next Major War Will Be 'Very Different'

 

Reuters: Next major war will be 'very different,' U.S. defense secretary says 

The United States needs to prepare for a potential future conflict bearing little resemblance to "the old wars" that have long consumed the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday in his first significant policy speech. 

Austin called for harnessing technological advances and better integrating military operations globally to "understand faster, decide faster and act faster." 

"The way we fight the next major war is going to look very different from the way we fought the last ones," Austin said during a trip to the Hawaii-based U.S. Pacific Command.  

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WNU Editor: The US Defense Secretary is 100% correct. The next major war will be very different, and IMHO it will be fought with missiles, drones, and long-range artillery that will be incredibly deadly and accurate.

Space Force Scientist Says It Is 'Imperative' That The US Military Experiment With Human Augmentation And AI

 

Daily Mail: Space Force scientist warns it's 'imperative' the US military experiment with human augmentation and AI to stay ahead of Russia and China 

* Dr. Joel Mozer believes combining humans and machines to work as a team 

* He suggests using AI's abilities to create 'unimaginable' strategies, coupled with a human's ability to resolve ambiguity, apply judgment, morality and ethics 

 * Mozer says the result would be superhuman intelligence that should be employed by the US military to compete with its adversaries 

Combining humans with machines to create superhuman intelligence may soon no longer be the plot of science-fiction films, as the US Space Force's chief scientist say it will happen in 'the coming decade.' 

Dr. Joel Mozer, speaking at an event at the Airforce Research Laboratory Wednesday, announced we are entering the age of 'human augmentation,' which is crucial to the US's national defense in order to not 'fall behind our strategic competitors.' 

However, his proposal does not turn humans into cyborgs, but employs 'AI agents' to assist with strategic military planning.  

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Update: Space Force Chief Scientist: “Human Augmentation” Is Now Necessary (Futurism).  

WNU Editor: Technology is changing and developing at a rate that has never happened before in history. That is why I agree with Dr. Mozer's statement that human augmentation and AI platforms is the next great frontier. The theoretical advantages of having a military built around these concepts is why the research necessary to explore these possibilities will be moving forward.

This Is How The U.S. Navy Will Fight The Chinese Navy

USS John Finn fires an SM-6 missile on Sunday. U.S. Navy 

Forbes: Robots Hunted A Mock Chinese Ship—Then a U.S. Navy Destroyer Lobbed A $5 Million Missile At It 

The U.S. Navy just showed us how it could fight the Chinese fleet. With stealthy robots, sophisticated communications systems and powerful warships firing high-tech missiles over long distances. 

The Navy last week sortied, from San Diego, a flotilla of manned and unmanned surface vessels and submarines. Crews positioned unmanned aerial vehicles to support the ships. 

The stealth cruiser USS Michael Monsoor, sporting what appeared to be an experimental communication system on its flight deck, led the other ships from Destroyer Squadron 21 into the Pacific Ocean.  

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WNU Editor: As I said in a post a few days ago. This is the future of naval warfare .... U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer Used Air And Navy Drones To Hit A Ship 250 Miles Away In A Test Early This Week (April 28, 2021).

U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer Used Air And Navy Drones To Hit A Ship 250 Miles Away In A Test Early This Week

U.S. Navy photo by Boatswain’s Mate Seaman Clark Lappert  

Popular Mechanics: A Navy Destroyer Teamed Up With Drones to Hit a Ship 250 Miles Away  

Welcome to the future of naval warfare. 

* A U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer targeted a simulated enemy ship at a range of more than 250 miles. 

* The destroyer relied on targeting data supplied by uncrewed ships and aircraft. 

* Using drones to act as scouts for the crewed ship allows the warships to remain hidden, protecting them from enemy attack.

The U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer USS John Finn recently achieved what could be the farthest anti-ship missile shot ever—all with the help of drones. 

The John Finn, acting on targeting data provided by uncrewed air and sea platforms, struck a simulated target at more than 250 miles. 

The use of drones for targeting purposes will allow the Navy to detect, track, and destroy enemy targets at long distance without exposing friendly ships to enemy sensors. 

The missile shot took place on April 25 during the U.S. Pacific Fleet’s Unmanned Systems Integrated Battle Problem 21 (UxS IBP 21). 

The battle problem, which is underway off the coast of southern California, is testing new concepts in teaming crewed and uncrewed ships and aircraft, including the MQ-9 SeaGuardian, inflatable balloons, warships like the Sea Hawk and Sea Hunter, and even submarine drones like CARINA.  

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WNU Editor: This is indeed the future of naval warfare.

UK Defense Secretary Says Drones Could Replace Troops In Future Wars

Mr Wallace said a future fighting force would not be about ‘mass mobilisation’ like the wars of the past but instead about speed and readiness

Daily Mail: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace signals drones could replace troops as he warns that the UK must be ready to fight 'tomorrow's battles, not yesterday's' because Britain's enemies have 'studied our vulnerabilities'

* He set out his plan for the military to become ‘relentlessly innovative’ in future
* Ex-Scots Guards officer spoke ahead of publication of a major defence review
* Said it would lead to a ‘step change’ with military reshaping never seen before

Ben Wallace signalled tonight that drones will replace troops in future wars as he warned Britain’s enemies have ‘adapted far more quickly than us’.

The Defence Secretary set out his plan for the military to become ‘relentlessly innovative’ as he unveiled new lethal autonomous kit for use by the Royal Navy.

He was flanked by a quadcopter drone carrying a torpedo – which could also be used to evacuate casualties - and a flying battering-ram drone-bashing machine.

Mr Wallace said a future fighting force would not be about ‘mass mobilisation’ like the wars of the past but instead about speed and readiness.

The former Scots Guards officer was speaking ahead of the publication of a major defence review whilst touring Britain’s newest navy ship, HMS Tamar, in London.

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WNU Editor: You will always needs boots on the ground.

Drone-Launching Submarines?

Popular Mechanics: Drone-Launching Submarines—Not Aircraft Carriers—Could Win the Next Battle of Midway

Out of sight, out of firing range.

On April 26th, 2017, the shipyards of Dalian, China were buzzing with activity. The Chinese Navy was about to launch a new warship, one that would cement China’s status as a major naval power. As nearby vessels blew their whistles in celebration, a Chinese official smashed a bottle of champagne against the gray hull, blessing it in the mariner’s tradition. China’s national anthem played as confetti and streamers shot into the sky surrounding the 66,000-ton ship—tentatively known as Type 002. This past summer it conducted sea trials in the Yellow Sea.

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WNU Editor: Interesting concept. But I do not see this happening anytime soon.

U.S. Air Force Believes It Is B-21s With Air-To-Air Capabilities And Drones That Will Dominate Future Air Combat

USAF Composite

Warzone/The Drive: "B-21s With Air-To-Air Capabilities," Drones, Not 6th Gen Fighters To Dominate Future Air Combat

The Air Force's vision of the future of aerial combat has evolved greatly as of late and has moved away from plans for new, costly manned fighters.

The U.S. Air Force is still working to iron out just what it thinks air-to-air combat will look like a decade from now and what types of aircraft it will need to come out on top in any future fight. As part of its ongoing Next Generation Air Dominance program, or NGAD, the service is exploring a wide array of manned, unmanned, and pilot-optional concepts, as well as advanced associated technologies, including increased network connectivity and autonomous capabilities. At the same time, however, it has steadily moved away from plans for a once much-touted sixth-generation fighter jet.

A number of senior Air Force leaders have offered updates about NGAD recently, all of who stressed that the final force mixture will include a variety of different platforms, as well as munitions and other systems, all tied together at various levels. This could include manned aircraft networked together with “loyal wingman” drones, fully autonomous unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAV), swarms of low-cost unmanned aircraft, and more.

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WNU Editor: I would not write-off manned 6th generation fighters just yet.

The U.S. Military Is Preparing For The Era Of ' Feral City' Warfare

American-backed forces have largely driven the Islamic State from Raqqa, above. The big question is who will rule it next. Credit Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

Kyle Rempfer, Military Times: Why US troops ‘flattened’ Raqqa and Mosul, and why it may herald an era of ‘feral city’ warfare

The U.S. military’s biggest successes against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria involved uprooting the militants first from Mosul, Iraq, and then Raqqa, Syria.

But those operations are also catching the most flak for what many human rights groups and international organizations viewed as a callous use of artillery and air power that killed too many civilians.

The battles, as terrible as they were, serve as an important bellwether that may mark a new era of urban warfare involving mega-cities, according to retired Army Maj. John W. Spencer, chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point’s Modern War Institute.

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WNU Editor: Urban warfare has always resulted in massive destruction and loss of life. The only difference now is that the cities are much bigger.

Is This The Future Of Warfare?

Popular Mechanics: This Crazy Ad for an Israeli Future Tank Is Something Else

This is the most convincing video yet on how buzzword technologies could actually become useful for 21st century armor troopers.

This hype video is a rare blend of funny and fascinating. And it might just show us the future of armored warfare.

Behold Israeli defense contractor Rafael’s new promo for the company’s Advanced Suite for Armored Fighting Vehicles. The clip is a vision of how automation, sensors, new self-defense technologies, and giant screens could revolutionize the way soldiers fight from armored vehicles.

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WNU Editor: IMHO this is the future of warfare.

The U.S. Military Strikes On Syria Was The First Time That U.S. Air Force Space Experts Were Directly Involved In A Military Operation

Lockheed Martin

Popular Mechanics: How a Syrian Airstrike Got Help From Space

A glimpse at the early days of a new kind of space war, where 30-somethings are rewriting the rules from a command center in Qatar.

* On April 14, the U.S. and allies attacked chemical weapons plants in Syria, in retaliation for that country using chemical agents against its own citizens.
* The airstrike was different in one important way: Air Force space experts used satellites in tactical ways to plan and execute the attack, something the military has just started doing.
* This kind of teamwork makes airstrikes more accurate, resulting in more effective targeting with fewer civilian casualties.

It's early April, and the U.S. and its allies at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar are planning an air strike—retaliation against the Bashar al-Assad regime after another chemical attack on Syrian civilians. This particular planning mission will have two unusual participants.

Col. Dewitt Morgan, the director of spaces forces at U.S. Air Force Central Command, tasks two of his officers join the team crafting an attack plan. Space electronic warfare Capt. Andrew "Ghost" Harris and space weapons officer Capt. Ryan "Pippin" Foster have an urgent task—to make sure the coming allied strike takes full advantage of U.S. satellites in orbit.

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WNU Editor: This is where warfare is heading .... and in the event of a war between the major powers, a certainty that space assets will be targeted.

A Photo-Gallery On The Future Of Warfare

U.S. Marine Ryan Ramirez is assessed utilizing a capture system for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) drones. U.S. Marine Corps/Lance Cpl. Cutler Brice/Handout via REUTERS

WNU Editor: The link to the photo-gallery is here .... The future of warfare (Reuters).

Future Wars Will Depend On Software As Much As On Ammunition

Photo from U.S. Army

Washington Post: Future wars may depend as much on algorithms as on ammunition, report says

The Pentagon is increasingly focused on the notion that the might of U.S. forces will be measured as much by the advancement of their algorithms as by the ammunition in their arsenals. And so as it seeks to develop the technologies of the next war amid a technological arms race with China, the Defense Department has steadily increased spending in three key areas: artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing, according to a recent report.

Investment in those areas increased to $7.4 billion last year, up from $5.6 billion five years ago, according to Govini, a data science and analytics firm, and it appears likely to grow as the armed services look to transform how they train, plan and fight.

“Rapid advances in artificial intelligence — and the vastly improved autonomous systems and operations they will enable — are pointing toward new and more novel warfighting applications involving human-machine collaboration and combat teaming,” Robert Work, the former deputy secretary of defense, wrote in an introduction to the report. “These new applications will be the primary drivers of an emerging military-technical revolution.”

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WNU Editor: As my programmer friends like to tell me when we talk and speculate about these type of military platforms .... it all comes down to software

The Shape Of Things To Come In Warfare

Advances in technology mean that fully autonomous weapons, like killer robots, could one day become a reality, transforming warfare pic.twitter.com/khf4nsqE1g

— AFP news agency (@AFP) November 25, 2017

A New Way To Transport Soldiers?

Speaking at an air power conference, David Goldfein said the military needed to 'jump on' industry plans when it came to innovative technology such as Virgin Galactic (file pic)

Daily Mail: SAS could one day travel through space to get to war zones in an hour, says US Air Force head

* Chief of Staff David Goldfein raised idea of elite troops using mothership
* Speaking at London conference, he said military needed innovative technology
* He referred to Sir Richard Branson's space travel company, Virgin Galactic

Special Forces troops could travel through space to get to war zones in future, the head of the American air force suggested yesterday.

Chief of Staff General David Goldfein raised the prospect of elite troops travelling on a mothership to anywhere in the planet within an hour.

Speaking at an air power conference in London, he said the military needed to 'jump on' industry plans when it came to innovative technology.

He referred to Sir Richard Branson's company Virgin Galactic, which plans to make intercontinental space travel a reality.

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WNU editor: The problem with this type of delivery system is that it is very expensive to use, and you will need a long runway to land your military forces. I do not see it happening at anytime in the near future.

The Growing Role And Importance Of Multi-Domain Combat

Iraqi Army soldiers training in January 2017.

Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., Breaking Defense: Iraq: Proving Ground For Multi-Domain Battle

ARMY WAR COLLEGE: The brutal ground war in Iraq holds vital lessons for sophisticated future operations in the Pacific, Australian Maj. Gen. Roger Noble said today. Military pundits often draw a sharp distinction between what they consider low-tech warfare against irregular forces, as in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, and high-tech war against states like China and Russia. But when Noble went from a tour in Iraq last year to the Hawaii headquarters of US Army Pacific, he said, the cutting-edge concepts of Multi-Domain Battle that USARPAC is experimenting with forcefully reminded him of coalition operations against Daesh, the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

“Last year, we saw the future,” Noble told the Army War College here. “We came back and read Multi-Domain Battle (and thought) ‘we saw version 1.0 in Iraq.'”

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Update: Multi-Domain Battle Will Require a Totally Different Type of Leader (A.J. Shattuck, Modern War Institute).

WNU Editor: History is full of examples of successful military operations where combined arms operations were the rule. Case in point .... an infantry squad facing a similar foe in a battle will be facing a stalemate, but backed with air-power, drones, artillery, and an armoured unit .... such a squad will be a formidable force that can easily break such a stalemate

The Future of Warfare Is Happening Now

Colin Clark, Breaking Defense: A Glimpse Of Warfare’s Future, Today

WASHINGTON: Building seamless ties between US and allied forces is a dream long held and oft delayed. Allowing a friendly foreign commander to call in pinpoint US airstrikes simply, reliably and quickly with a phone is exactly the kind of military miracle science fiction and military visionaries have dreamt of since at least the late 1990s.

The current edition of PRISM, the official publication of the National Defense University’s Center for Complex Operations offers this intriguing example of what will doubtless become the future of warfare, for us, our enemies and our competitors:

“The Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) Ground Force Commander surveys the farmland in front of him. His unit of ISOF soldiers has just captured two ISIL Commanders (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) at a house 50 kilometers from Baghdad—far enough away to put this unit in danger of being overrun if ISIL fighters respond quickly. He knows that his enemies must have received the call to arms only minutes ago, and are on the way to his location.

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WNU Editor: Rapid communications .... pinpoint strikes on the enemy .... and all done within the hour (or less).

The Next U.S. President Is Going To Decide The Role That AI And Robots Will Have In Future Wars

Clear-skies thinking: the prototype Tanaris stealth drone is being designed by BAE Systems and expected to be in use from 2030 © BAE

Financial Times: AI and robots line up for battlefield service

The future of the US arsenal lies in next president’s hands.

Artificial intelligences have a long history when it comes to visions of future conflict: from the medieval Golem of Jewish tradition to the robotic Martian handling machines of H G Wells’ The War of the Worlds and beyond. Even our darkest cold war visions had technology at their heart: the world ends in Stanley Kubrick’s Dr Strangelove because a machine wills it.

The past few years, however, have seen a flowering of revolutionary technologies that make many of these fantasies a near-achievable reality: robotics and AI are now at the forefront of the military technologists’ art.

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WNU Editor: The genie is already out of the bottle on this one. And while the U.S. Defense Secretary has stated that humans will always decide on when to pull the trigger .... U.S. Defense Secretary: The Pentagon Will Never Use Robotic Systems That Decide On Their Own When To Kill (October 30, 2016) .... |I can easily see how developments in technology can change all of this in the future .... specifically giving these weapon systems the legal guidelines on the "when and how" to use these weapons .... i.e. .... before launching such a strike and/or responding to an attack should the opportunity arise and if humans are not available at that moment in time.

DARPA Is Predicting That Future Wars Won With Hypersonic Weapons And Artificial Intelligence

Artist's concept of an X-51A hypersonic aircraft during flight. Wikimedia Commons

We Are The Mighty: DARPA sees future wars won with hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md — In comments that conjure up dystopian images of a future dominated by robot soldiers controlled by Skynet, researchers with the Pentagon’s futuristic think tank said they are working on better ways to merge the rapid decision making of computers with the analytical capabilities of humans.

In fact, scientists at the Defense Advanced Research Projects agency, or DARPA, are even looking into advanced neuroscience in hopes of one day merging computerized artificial intelligence with the human brain.

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WNU Editor: U.S. tests on hypersonic aircraft have been less than stellar .... and as for artificial platforms .... that is still far from being realised (if it is even possible). But should these platforms ever become real .... then yes .... future wars are going to be fought (and won) using these technologies.

The Pentagon Plans To Crush Russia And China With 'Swarm' Weapons

Dave Mujumdar, National Interest: The Mad Scientists at DARPA Plan to Crush Russia and China with 'Swarm' Weapons

The Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has awarded Lockheed Martin and Raytheon a contract to develop ways to control swarming drones inside heavily defended airspace called CODE or Collaborative Operations in Denied Environment (CODE). Defeating so-called anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) threats—such as zones defended by advanced Russian and Chinese built integrated air defense systems—is a top priority for the United States as the world enters an era of renewed great power competition.

The key technology that underpins CODE is what DARPA calls “collaborative autonomy.” Essentially, the DARPA concept envisions a future where autonomous drones “could perform sophisticated tasks both individually and in teams under the supervision of a single human mission commander.” The drones would have to share data, decide on how to divvy up tasks, synchronize their actions and communicate with each other and their human commander—all by themselves.

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WNU Editor: These drones are not cheap .... and building large numbers of them is going to be an expensive proposition.