The New Middle East Arms Race Involves Kites And Drones

Michale Peck, National Interest: The New Middle East Arms Race Is Not What You Think

'Tis the time's plague when toy drones battle kamikaze kites.

In the long, bloody Middle Eastern arms race, two new contenders have appeared. In the one corner is Hamas, which is so outgunned by Israel that it has resorted to launching flaming kites across the border to set Israeli farms ablaze. But the Israelis have their own secret weapons: toy drones, flown by civilian hobbyists, to intercept the incendiary intruders.

The weird aerial duel began in March, during bloody clashes between Palestinian protesters and militants, and the Israeli military, along the fence separating the Israel-Gaza border. Lacking weapons to take on Israeli forces, and also wary of firing rockets into Israel that might trigger an Israeli invasion, the Palestinians came up with a clever solution.

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WNU Editor: As I had mentioned in the previous post .... the Israelis have brought in the "heavy artillery" to stop those who are sending these burning kites .... Israel Targets Palestinians Launching Burning Kites and Balloons Into Israel.

Middle East Governments Are Cutting Their Military Budgets

Dominic Dudley, Forbes: Middle East Governments Are Cutting Their Military Budgets Even As Wars Rage Around The Region

Military spending in the Middle East has fallen over the past year, despite a string of ongoing conflicts across the region, including those in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen.

According to data published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) on February 14, total spending across the region fell to $167bn in 2017, down 4% from $174bn the year before. Measured by a number of other metrics, the fall was even faster. Defence spending on a per capita basis was down 5% to $388 while spending as a percentage of the region’s GDP dropped from 5.73% of GDP in 2016 to 5.4% last year.

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WNU Editor: I think it is a combination of not having the money .... and also waiting to see what happens in the coming months in the countries that are engulfed by war. My prediction .... this cut in military budgets is just a blip. The situation in the Middle East is still chaotic .... and it will be for the foreseeable future.

Did President Obama's Iran Nuclear Deal Ignite An Midle East Arms Race?

Austin Bay, The Observer: Obama’s Iran Deal Didn’t Halt Aggression—It Ignited an Arms Race

Regime uses sanctions relief to beef up weaponry, leading their neighbors to do the same.

On July 25, the latest battle in the Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution’s long war on America occurred in the northern end of the Persian Gulf.

When a speedboat manned by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel approached American vessels operating in open water, the U.S. Navy patrol craft USS Thunderbolt issued a series of warnings, all translating as “stay away, keep safe distance.” The Revolutionary Guards kept coming, as they often do, probing until the USN reacts.

A fanatic’s boat weaving among American warships could disrupt the U.S. formation and cause a collision. Tehran propagandists would tout that as a victory at sea. Worse, an Iranian boat might be a water-borne bomb capable of sinking a big ship. The deadly October 2000 terror attack on the USS Cole is very much on the minds of Navy sailors when Iran’s small boats appear. A suicidal zealot in an explosive-packed Boghammer could zig-zag through a USN defensive screen, particularly if the zealot’s boat is one of several in a “swarm.”

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WNU Editor: There are many reasons why there is an arms race in the Middle East right now. The Sunni-Shiite conflict has exploded. Almost every country in the region is now gripped with war .... directly or indirectly. The big powers are reluctant to expand and escalate their role in the Middle east  to defuse the situation over fears that they may get dragged into a quagmire. And while it is true that the Iranian nuclear deal did give the Iranians some money as well as  markets for their oil .... the regional tensions that are driving this arms buildup have been around for centuries .... and having a few extra dollars in the treasury will not be the reason that makes everyone decide that they now may need to buy weapons. On a bright note .... at least we are not having a nuclear arms race in the Middle East .... for now.

With Oil Prices Crashing Will This Slow Down A Middle East Arms Race?

Can the oil price go down further? Here's the case for and against. https://t.co/4E1bCDtxw0 pic.twitter.com/HSUEnTdI87

— Financial Times (@FT) January 12, 2016

Christopher Harress, IBTimes: Amid Falling Oil Price, Middle East Arms Race Led By Saudi Arabia Expected To Slow Down

As Middle East nations look to build up their weaponry amid regional civil wars, that arms race is now at risk of grinding to a halt. The price of oil kept sliding Tuesday, past the point where the oil-based economies in the region are able to balance their budgets.

In particular, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates are among the countries whose economies are strongly pegged to the price of oil, which is expected to keep falling well into the new year. But while their respective budgets will likely see swift reductions across domestic spending, their funds set aside for defense will almost certainly have to be slashed as well, said energy and defense experts, who predict a ripple effect on the U.S. military industrial complex with major orders being scrapped as cash reserves becomes scarce.

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WNU Editor: It may actually do the opposite. The budgets of every Middle Eastern government is being slashed because of declining oil prices .... to compensate for this loss government subsidies and assistance is being cut, and if history is any indication in the Middle East .... when subsidies are cut  unrest always breaks out. The wars that are engulfing the Middle east are also not abating .... in fact they are getting worse .... in such an environment guns will always be a priority over "butter".

Is Iran Triggering A Middle East Arms Race?

Bloomberg: Iran Deal Didn't Trigger the Middle East Arms Race

Critics of the Obama administration's Iran nuclear deal warn that, among other faults, it is setting off a new Middle East arms race. In Qatar this week, Secretary of State John Kerry seemingly admitted as much, saying that Washington had "agreed to expedite certain arms sales that are needed and that have taken too long in the past."

And how: Just weeks after the pact was announced, Saudi Arabia signed up to buy 600 Patriot missiles from the U.S. at $5 billion, and it is expected to purchase 10 Sikorsky MH-60R naval helicopters. Qatar has inked a $17 billion contract for French-made Rafale fighter jets, and wants to buy Boeing F-15s. Kuwait recently bought 28 F-18 Super Hornets. The United Arab Emirates is expecting $200 million worth of General Atomics Predator drones next year. (Iran, soon to be relieved of sanctions, has a deal with Russia for a missile-defense system and is eyeing French and Russian fighters.)

But the arc of history shows that the checkbook bellicosity of the Gulf monarchies is hardly new. The hyper-arming of the Middle East actually dates to the mid-2000s, before the U.S. and its partners began negotiating in earnest with Tehran over nuclear weapons.

WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember .... the Middle East has always been buying arms and weapon systems ....and  doubly so in the past decade. Is Iran the reason for this arms build-up .... I would say partly yes .... but much of this buying has been due to other factors. Factors such as Israel, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, the rise of radical Islam, .... just to name a few. But what is worrisome is the possibility of a nuclear arms race. The Iranian nuclear agreement freezes Iran's program for the moment .... and while everyone in the international community are confident that inspections will insure compliance from Iran .... the problem is that many in the region who live beside Iran are not so sure, and they may in turn pursue the same nuclear program that Iran has developed n the past decade. If that becomes the case .... expect military spending in the region to  explode exponentially.

The Middle East Is Gearing Up For A Nuclear Arms Race

Reuters: Saudi Arabia considers its own nuclear options after Iran deal

One likely Saudi Arabian response to the deal its biggest enemy Iran has struck with world powers is to accelerate its own nuclear power plans, creating an atomic infrastructure it could, one day, seek to weaponize.

But while it has recently made moves to advance its nuclear program, experts say it is uncertain whether it could realistically build an atomic bomb in secret or withstand the political pressure it would face if such plans were revealed.

"I think Saudi Arabia would seriously try to get the bomb if Iran did. It's just like India and Pakistan. The Pakistanis said for years they didn't want one, but when India got it, so did they," said Jamal Khashoggi, head of a Saudi news channel owned by a prince.

Update #1: Nuclear Arms Race: Saudi Source Reveals Plan for the Bomb -- Arutz Sheva
Update #2: Middle East rivals agree: Iran nuclear deal is no solution to regional turmoil -- Washington Times

WNU Editor: Whats my take .... quoting New York Observer columnist Micah Halpern is his latest post .... We’ll Have What They’re Having: The Iran Nuclear Deal Will Spur an Arms Race ....

.... Before, during and now after signing of this nuclear deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly maintained that they want the same rights as Iran. The Sunnis of Saudi Arabia cannot—and will not—permit Shiite Iranians to get the upper hand in the region and move toward improved nuclear technology under the safety shield of a signed and sealed deal.

I concur .... Saudi Arabia will never position themselves to be subservient to Iran .... something that Washington has probably underestimated.

The Middle East Is Now In An Arms Race

Saudi army artillery fires shells towards Houthi positions from the Saudi border with Yemen. Photograph: Faisal Al Nasser/Reuters

The Guardian: The $18bn arms race helping to fuel Middle East conflict

Security experts express fears for region’s stability amid record weapons sales from west and Russia’s missile deal with Iran

The Middle East is plunging deeper into an arms race, with an estimated $18bn expected to be spent on weapons this year, a development that experts warn is fuelling serious tension and conflict in the region.

Given the unprecedented levels of weapons sales by the west (including the US, Canada and the UK) to the mainly Sunni Gulf states, Vladimir Putin’s decision last week to allow the controversial delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran – voluntarily blocked by Russia since 2010 – seems likely to further accelerate the proliferation.

That will see agreed arms sales to the top five purchasers in the region - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt and Iraq – surge this year to more than $18bn, up from $12bn last year. Among the systems being purchased are jet fighters, missiles, armoured vehicles, drones and helicopters.

WNU Editor: Here is an easy prediction .... if the Iranians get their nuclear deal, this "arms race" is going to explode coupled with the real possibility of a nuclear arms race at the end of any such agreement.

Clinton: A Nuclear Iran Would Spark A Regional Arms Race

Clinton: 'I Can Absolutely Bet' A Nuclear Iran Would Spark A Regional Arms Race -- The Hill

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cautioned that Iran not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon, not only because of own intentions, but because she believes it would spur a regional arms race.

"Everybody needs to know — most particularly the Iranians — that we are serious that they cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. It’s not only about Iran and about Iran’s intentions, however one tries to discern them. It’s about the arms race that would take place in the region with such unforeseen consequences," Clinton told Charlie Rose in an interview posted online Thursday and aired on CBS's "This Morning."

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My Comment: I call this a "DUH!" moment.

Saudi Arabia Will Build Nuclear Weapons If Iran Does

Image: (Credit: CBS)

Riyadh Will Build Nuclear Weapons If Iran Gets Them, Saudi Prince Warns -- The Guardian

Prospect of a nuclear conflict in the Middle East is raised by senior diplomat and member of the Saudi ruling family.

A senior Saudi Arabian diplomat and member of the ruling royal family has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict in the Middle East if Iran comes close to developing a nuclear weapon.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to Washington, warned senior Nato military officials that the existence of such a device "would compel Saudi Arabia … to pursue policies which could lead to untold and possibly dramatic consequences"

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More News On Saudi Arabia's Intent To Develop Nuclear Weapons If Iran Does

Saudi Arabia Threatens to Build Nukes if Iran Acquires Them -- Global Security Newswire
Saudi Arabia: If Iran builds nukes, so will we -- CBS
If Iran Really Is Testing Nukes, Saudi Officials Say It "Would Be Unacceptable And We Will Have To Follow Suit" -- Business Insider
Saudi will seek nuclear arms if Iran gets them - report -- Reuters
Saudi Arabia will build nukes if Iran does -- Pan Armenian
Tehran tests Saudis' nerve on nuclear weapons -- The Australian

My Comment: The last thing that the Middle East needs right now is a nuclear arms race .... but the groundwork is now being shaped to have such a unfortunately development occur.

Arms Race Continues In The Middle East. U.S. Renews Syria Sanctions

Barack Obama's administration has renewed economic sanctions against Syria. Photograph: Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images

Israel Says Hezbollah Missile Buildup Accelerating -- Yahoo News/AFP

JERUSALEM (AFP) – Syria's government routinely ships weapons to Lebanon's Shiite militia Hezbollah in an operation that goes well beyond sporadic smuggling, a top Israeli intelligence officer said on Tuesday.

The head of the military intelligence research department, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told a parliamentary committee that Hezbollah's arsenal included thousands of rockets of all ranges and types, some solid-fuelled.

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More News On The Arms Buildup In The Middle East

Military Intelligence: Hezbollah Scuds tip of iceberg -- Ynet News
U.S. Extends Syrian Sanctions For Another Year -- Global Security Newswire
Obama renews Syria sanctions -- Al Jazeera
U.S. Renews Sanctions Against Syria -- Fox News/AP
Syria warns U.S. on accepting Israel scud claims -- Washington Post/Reuters
Why the Syria-US relationship is likely to remain chilly for some time -- The Guardian

Arabs Go For Air Power To Counter Iran

Royal Saudi Air Force: Tornados (Photo from Defense Talk)

From UPI:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Nov. 17 (UPI) -- Arab states, particularly in the Gulf, are seeking to build up their air power and missile defenses to counter any challenger from Iran.

Mostly they're looking to their traditional arms suppliers in the West, the United States, Britain and France, but Russia is pushing hard for a piece of the action.

This year's biennial Dubai air show, which opened Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, provided a showcase for the latest technology on offer.

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My Comment: An arms race is underway in the Middle East, and the only way that the Arab states will be able to counter Iran's heavy investment in missile and nuclear technologies is to have an air force that can counter any Iranian land/naval invasion of the Arabian peninsula.

Clinton’s Leaky ‘Defense Umbrella’

From Small Wars Journal:

Iran’s nuclear program is suddenly receiving a flurry of attention from top Obama administration officials. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Israel today to exchange views on the subject with Ehud Barak, his counterpart. National Security Advisor James Jones will soon arrive in Israel, presumably to discuss the same topic.

Last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proposed a U.S. “defense umbrella” over the entire Middle East should Iran fail to cease work on its nuclear complex. Other officials in the Obama administration soon attempted to repeal Clinton’s remarks, while simultaneously implying that some kind of U.S. security umbrella has always been over the Middle East.

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My Comment: A sober assessment from the Small Wars Journal. I also remember what it was like to live under an "umbrella" during the Cold War. It was not a picnic nor a stable time for everyone.

During the 60s, 70s, and 80s I felt confident (most of the time) that the Soviet Union would never launch a nuclear attack against us, but their focus on conventional armies only helped to heighten the fear and worry that an accident and/or mistake could lead us to a nuclear exchange. Fortunately .... that never happened.

In the Middle East, the dynamics are different. To begin, the religious component of martyrdom is present. Also .... Israeli determination to protect themselves .... even launching a preemptive war .... is something that concerns everyone. What they would do if Iran does successfully obtain nuclear weapons .... I can easily picture the worse case scenario.

Pushing the idea of an "umbrella" may appeal to the American public .... but in the Middle East this is a non-starter for the simple reason that everyone knows that this will only heighten tensions, and will probably precipitate an arms race. An event that the Middle East certainly does not need right now.

Iran Fears Drive Mid-East Arms Rush

A Leopard tank is displayed by tank maker Krauss-Maffei wegmann in the International Defense Exhibition 2009 in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, Feb. 25, 2009. The International Defense Exhibition (IDEX) 2009, the ninth edition of the largest arms fair in the Middle East, opened here on Feb. 22 and attracted 897 companies from 50 countries and regions.( (Xinhua/Li Zhiping)

From The Danger Room:

Iranian protesters defied Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s warnings of “bloodshed” and took to the streets over the weekend, to protest the country’s allegedly rigged election. Riots cops responded with batons, tear gas and water cannons. Earlier, hard-line Basji militias reportedly broke into protesting students’ dorms, to intimidate or even beat them.

No one knows how the escalating protests will play out, in the end. More broadly, regional worries over Iran have propelled a lucrative arms market, dominated by U.S. defense firms. While most countries cut back their military spending, due to the global recession, many of Iran’s neighbors are continuing years-long shopping sprees for high-tech arms, apparently aimed at building an iron wall around Iran. Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for the majority of sales, projected to total $70 billion, this year. The bulk of the sales are for fighter jets and missile defenses.

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My Comment: Regardless of what happens in Iran, procurement projects for many Middle Eastern countries have now been committed, and there is no turning back.

U.S. Pushes For U.N. Censure Of Iran, Syria On Arms

Following its departure from an Iranian port, the Cypriot-flagged ship Monchegorsk was detained in Limassol, Cyprus in January, above, after U.S. intelligence suggested it was ferrying arms to Syria. EPA

From Wall Street Journal:

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration is pushing for a formal censure of Iran and Syria at the United Nations over an arms-smuggling case that U.S. officials see as highlighting the risks that Iranian weapons shipments pose to regional stability.

The move at the U.N. could impede the ability of Iranian shipping firms to deliver arms to militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, U.S. and other Western officials said.

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Update: U.S. Works to Block Arms Shipments to Mideast Militants -- Wall Street Journal

My Comment: On the one hand they are talking about opening a dialogue with Iran .... on the other hand they are censuring them. It is clear that the left hand is not knowing what the right hand is doing.

A Middle East Arms Race -- A Commentary

Secretary Rice meets with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at the Presidential palace. AP Photo. (Photo taken from State.gov)

From The Wall Street Journal:

Hosni Mubarak is no one's idea of a visionary, but in sensing the Middle East's political winds he has few equals. So when Egypt's president-for-life warned his ruling party last week that "the Persians are trying to devour the Arab states," it's worth paying attention.

The immediate cause of the remarks is a war of words by Iran that led Mr. Mubarak to recall an envoy from Tehran last week. Among other provocations was the recent release of an Iranian film celebrating the 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, Mr. Mubarak's predecessor. A Tehran demonstration late last month also called for Mr. Mubarak's execution, on the grounds of his alleged "subservience to the Zionists."

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My Comment: The write of this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal clearly has a sense of the pulse in the region. There is nothing in this article that I am in disagreement with.

The Coming Middle East Missile War

PATRIOT PAC-3 (Photo from Militaryphotos.net)

From The Weekly Standard:

Russia's plan for the new Iskander theater ballistic missile doesn't stop with their proposed Kaliningrad deployment. Aviation Week reports that once domestic requirements are met, Russia may export the weapon to Syria, India, and the UAE -- to start. Algeria, Belarus, Kuwait, and Vietnam have also expressed interest in the SCUD replacement, though Russia claims to be working on an "Echo" variant of the rocket for export that reduces the Iskander's range from 400km to appx. 280km.

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My Comment: I do not know if there is going to be a Middle East Missile War .... but there is a possibility of a missile arms race. But with oil prices collapsing and the financial crisis getting worse .... I doubt that most of the countries in the region will have the funds to indulge in this race.