A Commentary On How Long We Are Going To Stay In Afghanistan

MRAP CONVOY - U.S. Army soldiers walk through the village of Kotub Kheyl in Logar province, Afghanistan, as a convoy of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles passes by, June 24, 2010. The soldiers are assigned to the 401st Military Police Company, 720th MP Battalion, 89th MP Brigade. U.S. Army photo by Spc De'Yonte Mosley

One Way Out -- Russ Douthat, New York Times

Here is the grim paradox of America’s involvement in Afghanistan: The darker things get and the more setbacks we suffer, the better the odds that we’ll be staying there indefinitely.

Not the way we’re there today, with 90,000 American troops in-theater and an assortment of NATO allies fighting alongside. But if the current counterinsurgency campaign collapses, it almost guarantees that some kind of American military presence will be propping up some sort of Afghan state in 2020 and beyond. Failure promises to trap us; success is our only ticket out.

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My Comment: Permissible Arms has an interesting analysis on this NYT's commentary, and I strongly recommend reading her post after reading the above New York Time's story.

As to what is my take on a long term U.S. presence in Afghanistan .... it is not going to happen.

The U.S. and its allies have already passed a certain critical point in which Afghan support for a continued presence in Afghanistan is now quickly declining. Nato support is also dwindling, with Dutch and Canadian troops leaving within a year, and others now laying the groundwork for their own departures a year or two later.

In the end, the Taliban know that there will only be the Americans .... and a few Afghan supporters .... who will be the only force left that will stop them from taking over much of the country. The Afghan army may reach their 300,000 or more level, but like the Soviets who cobbled together an Afghan army closer to 500,000 in 1988 .... the discipline and commitment was not there then .... and it will not be there today.

General McChrystal's bleak assessment on the war .... delivered a few days before he was fired .... outlines these concerns .... and more. It is difficult to stay in a country when much of the population is either neutral at best .... or openly hostile (at worse) to your presence .... but that is the exact situation on the ground today. The Russians killed a million Afghans during their war from 1980 - 1988 .... and they stilled failed. Our counter - insurgency policy will also kill a lot of Taliban, but employing such a strategy when there is not enough force on the ground to be every where at the same time .... pacifying this country will be next to impossible.

As to the reason that we are in Afghanistan because of Al Qaeda .... and our fear that they will reconstitute themselves should we leave .... CIA Director Panetta discounted that idea when he mentioned in an interview with ABC News that there are only 60 - 100 Al Qaeda members in Afghanistan. Hmmm .... if 60 Al Qaeda members are a threat to our survival .... then we are truly a weak and insecure nation.

Why Did Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Mullen Make An Unscheduled Stop In Israel

MULLEN MEETS BARAK - U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, greets Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Tel Aviv, Israel, June 27, 2010. DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Chad J. McNeeley

US Military Chief In Israel For Top-Level Talks -- AFP

TEL AVIV — The top US military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, on Sunday held talks in Tel Aviv with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak and other members of the military's top brass, officials said.

A US embassy spokesman said Mullen, who was paying a flying visit to Israel, was also meeting Israeli Chief of Staff Gaby Ashkenazi and senior military officials.

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More News On Admiral Muke Mullen's Visit To Israel

Mullen makes unscheduled stop in Israel -- JTA
Mullen: I see Israeli perspective -- Jerusalem Post
Admiral Mullen: “I see the challenges from an Israeli perspective” -- Israel Defense Forces
U.S. army chief: I always try to see challenges from Israeli perspective -- Haaretz

My Comment: My guess is that he is going to certain countries to reassure them that the firing of General McChrystal will not change U.S. military policy in Afghanistan and elsewhere .... and Israel is one of those countries.

Here Comes The Pentagon Budget Cutters

CARTER BRIEFING - Under Defense Secretary for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Ashton Carter holds a press conference at the Pentagon, June 28, 2010, to talk about new Department of Defense Acquisition strategies to incentivise DoD contractors to cut the costs of their programs. DoD photo by R. D. Ward

Military Costs Under Review In Bid To Trim Waste -- New York Times

The Pentagon’s effort to cut more than $100 billion in administrative costs over the next several years is expected to take a new direction on Monday with proposals that could lower profits for military companies.

Industry officials said that Ashton B. Carter, the under secretary of defense for acquisition, had called a meeting with contractors and lobbyists to address ways to cut waste. In addition to trimming its own bureaucracy, the Pentagon is looking for savings in how it hands out hundreds of billions of dollars in contracts for weapons and services each year.

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More News On The Pentagon Trying To Find Savings In Its Budgets

Pentagon looks for 100 billion in cost savings -- Washington Post
Gates Taps Carter to Lead Procurement, Services Efficiency Effort -- Defense News
Gates: Overhead Savings Would Benefit Warfighters -- U.S. Department of Defense
Industry Wary Of ‘Productivity’ Moves -- DoD Buzz
Pentagon launches affordability push for weapons -- Reuters
Defense Unveils Cost-Savings Plan -- Wall Street Journal
Pentagon calls on defense industry to bring down costs -- AFP
Pentagon eyes $100 billion in savings by trimming overhead -- CNN

Mexico's Drug Cartels Are Now Killing Mexico's Politicians

MEXICAN PRESIDENT: Felipe Calderon addressed the nation after Rodolfo Torre Cantu, a gobernautorial candidate pegged to win a July 4 election in the northern Mexican state of Tamaulipas was killed by suspected drug cartel hitmen on Monday. Reuters

Rodolfo Torre Cantu Assassination: Why Are Drug Cartels Killing Mexican Candidates? -- Christian Science Monitor

Mexican gubernatorial candidate Rodolfo Torre Cantu, the leading PRI candidate in Tamaulipas state, was gunned down Monday by suspected drug cartel hitmen. President Felipe Calderon says the drug lords are interfering with Mexico's election process.

The leading candidate for governor of the northern Mexican state of Tamaulipas, Rodolfo Torre Cantu, was gunned down Monday in one of the highest profile assassinations since a presidential candidate was murdered in 1994.

Gunmen opened fire on Torre Cantu’s campaign van days before the July 4 election in 14 states and one month after a mayoral candidate was killed in the same state.

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More News On Mexico's Drug Cartel War

Leading politician Rodolfo Torre Cantú murdered in Mexico -- The Guardian
Assassins hit leading candidate in key Mexican border state -- Miami Herald/McClatchy News
Mexican governor candidate killed, cartels blamed -- Dallas News/AP
Mexican governor candidate killed by gunmen, Calderon says assassination tied to drug gang violence -- New York Daily news
Candidate killing marks peak in Mexico election bloodshed -- AFP
Mexican Candidate for Governor Is Assassinated -- New York Times
Rodolfo Torre Cantu Assassinated; Drug Cartels Suspected, Say Reports -- CBS News
Mexican candidate shot dead on campaign trail -- BBC
Mexico state to hold vote despite candidate murder -- Reuters

Dem lawmakers feel the heat on border security -- The Hill
President Obama Wants $600 Million More for U.S.-Mexican Border -- ABC News
Mexican state security minister can't trust her own police -- L.A. Times
Drug War Besieges Mexico's Northern Metropolis -- NPR
Gunmen kill Mexican singer on the way to concert -- CNN
Discovery of mass grave reveals horror of Mexico's drug war -- The Irish Times
"Cocaine Nation": The argument for legal cocaine -- Salon
Worst flashpoints in Mexico's drug war -- Vision/Reuters

Donald Rumsfeld Visits The Pentagon

Did Gates Diss Rumsfeld? -- The Cable/Foreign Policy

It's the obligation of each U.S. secretary of defense to make a speech when the portrait of his predecessor is unveiled in the halls of the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Robert Gates's speech Friday, delivered while standing next to former Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, was full of not-so-subtle indications about how Gates views Rumsfeld's stewardship of the Defense Department.

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My Comment: Two different men .... two different styles. I will always remember Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld on 9/11 .... helping with the wounded that were on the grounds of the Pentagon .... and in the following days and months being a consistent face on the news as we all started to gear up for war in Afghanistan.

A Brief Analysis On The New Cybersecurity Bill

Are We Ready For A Cyber-Pearl Harbor? -- James Carafano, Washington Examiner

Somebody in the Pentagon had an idea. "Let's take down the Internet."

In 1997, the Department of Defense led an exercise called Eligible Receiver. A team of cyber-experts was given three months to plan and execute an attack on unclassified computer systems using commonly available hardware and software. The red team came from a not-to-be-named shadowy agency -- but we know it was the National Security Agency.

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My Comment: A brief but sobering analysis on the pros and cons of a cybersecurity bill that is now making its way through Congress.

The New York Times Wonders Why General McChrystal Was Fired

In a photo in the last issue of Rolling Stone, Army Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal is seen on board a C-130 aircraft over Afghanistan. (Navy Petty Officer, U.S. Navy/NATO / June 24, 2010)

McChrystal’s Quality Time With Rolling Stone: Impertinent? Check. Insubordinate? Maybe Not. -- New York Times

You could say General Stanley A. McChrystal was a victim of his own hubris – the archetypal field commander who got too intemperate with the suits back at headquarters.

Then again, you might not.

Let’s stipulate that allowing a reporter from Rolling Stone with a skeptic’s view of the war in Afghanistan unfettered access for a month was not the best career move. But those who’ve read the full piece by Michael Hastings — as opposed to just the juicy bits being tossed around cable news — might be forgiven for wondering what exactly got him whacked so quickly. Or at least, you might wonder if it has less to do with what the general said and more to do with the relentless velocity and recklessness of the modern media ecosystem.

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My Comment: The paragraph that caught my eye in this New York Time's report was the following ....

.... The general is not quoted at any length in Mr. Hasting’s piece, but from my close reading, here is what he did: said that Vice President was prone to unexpected public statements, moaned audibly when he got an incoming mail from diplomatic envoy Richard Holbrooke, and complained that the White House took a long time to review his war plan. That’s it. The rest was all atmospherics and innuendo ....

Wow .... I never expect critical or objective reporting from the New York Times on any issue that involves President Obama. But this article is a zinger .... and the reporter is 100% right in his analysis. Read also the comments on this New York Times piece .... opinion is split on both sides.

Unfortunately, the NYT reporter does not examine the question on why General McChrystal was fired. If it was not for insubordination .... why was he let go so quickly?

My guess .... a few days before being fired, General McChrystal had issued a bleak assessment on the pace of the war in Afghanistan. I am sure that President Obama (and his aides) .... when reading this negative assessment .... recognized how large of a mess (and quagmire) Afghanistan had become for his Presidency.

I do not know if President Obama gets mad at these things, but if I was him I would be steamed at General McChrystal for convincing me (last fall) that this was the strategy that should be adopted. A few days later .... with parts of the Rolling Stone's article being leaked and then published .... President Obama had the opening to get rid of the General that got him into this losing situation .... which he did in a very effective and astute manner.

More Warnings That The Financial Crisis Is About To Get Worse

RBS Tells Clients To Prepare For 'Monster' Money-Printing By The Federal Reserve -- The Telegraph

As recovery starts to stall in the US and Europe with echoes of mid-1931, bond experts are once again dusting off a speech by Ben Bernanke given eight years ago as a freshman governor at the Federal Reserve.

Entitled "Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here", it is a warfare manual for defeating economic slumps by use of extreme monetary stimulus once interest rates have dropped to zero, and implicitly once governments have spent themselves to near bankruptcy.

The speech is best known for its irreverent one-liner: "The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."

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More News On The Financial Crisis

The Third Depression -- Paul Krugman, New York Times
Krugman's Depression -- IBD Editorial

Obama says he's serious about tackling deficits -- Reuters
G-20 Calls for Higher Bank Capital to Avert Financial Crisis -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Gargantuan financial reform bill: It's not just for banks -- Christian Science Monitor
Report Warns That Many Banks Still Vulnerable to Crises -- New York Times
Fragile global economy 'at risk of new crisis' -- ABC News (Australia)
US state budget crises threaten social fabric -- Financial Times

Gen. McChrystal To Retire

General Stanley McChrystal - leaving the army.
Photograph: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

Gen. McChrystal To Retire -- Wall Street Journal

Less than a week after President Barack Obama fired him as commander in Afghanistan over intemperate remarks to Rolling Stone magazine, Gen. Stanley McChrystal has told the Army his 34-year career in the military is over.

According to an Army spokesman, McChrystal today informed the office responsible for administering the careers of general officers that he intends to retire. The spokesman, Army Col. Thomas Collins, said McChrystal has yet to submit his formal retirement paperwork.

“We don’t have a date yet or anything like that,” Collins said.

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More News On The Retirement Of General McChrystal

General Stanley McChrystal to retire from US military -- The Guardian
Gen Stanley McChrystal to retire -- The Telegraph
Cashiered general tells Army he'll retire -- AP
McChrystal to retire from military: US Army -- AFP
Army spokesman says McChrystal to retire -- CNN

My Comment: The only thing that is now left for General McChrystal is his pension .... and after that he can fade away.

Russian President Criticizes Kyrgyzstan's Vote For Parliamentary Democracy

Members of a local electoral commission empty a ballot box at a polling station in Bishkek on June 27. Photo from Radio Free Europe

Why Russia's Medvedev Is Blasting Ally Kyrgyzstan -- Christian Science Montior

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev unexpectedly criticized a government reform vote in Kyrgyzstan that passed Sunday with 91 percent support.

Turbulent Kyrgyzstan's weekend referendum on reforming its political system has won overwhelming support from the population. But Russia, Kyrgyzstan's closest ally, has unexpectedly criticized the effort.

Speaking to journalists at the G-20 meeting in Toronto, President Dmitry Medvedev poured cold water on the referendum's goal of changing Kyrgyzstan's Constitution from a president-dominated system into one in which a popularly-elected parliament holds the lion's share of power. He also warned that the tiny central Asian country faced the "threat of breaking up" and being overrun by "extremists."

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More News On Kyrgyzstan

Russia Warns Kyrgyzstan Could Implode After Vote -- New York Times/Reuters
Russia warning over Kyrgyz reform -- Montreal Gazette/The Daily Telegraph
Western Nations, Institutions Praise Kyrgyz Referendum, As Russia Expresses Doubts -- Radio Free Europe
Kyrgyzstan faces tricky political future -- AP
Kyrgyzstan vote for parliamentary democracy welcomed -- The Telegraph
Kyrgyzstan Referendum Held Under Tight Security -- Voice of America
Kyrgyzstan observers say vote peaceful -- CNN
Kyrgyzstan Readies for Parliamentary Rule After Referendum Win -- Businessweek/Bloomberg
Mass Return of Kyrgyz Refugees Disrupts Relief Effort -- New York Times
Lying Satellites and Kyrgyzstan’s Course -- Registan
After Kyrgyz Unrest, a Question Lingers: Why? -- New York Times
Timeline: Unrest In Kyrgyzstan's South -- New York Times/Reuters