Monday, July 21, 2008

Pakistan And India -- Amidst Peace Talks, LoC Truce Disintegrates

Kashmir Region

From The Hindu:

NEW DELHI: Even as India and Pakistan have reported progress in their ongoing dialogue on Jammu and Kashmir, the 2003 Line of Control ceasefire, the keystone that holds up the détente process, is beginning to disintegrate.

Indian troops reported three attacks on forward positions on Thursday, the latest in over a dozen clashes this year that ruptured a ceasefire that went into place along the Line of Control in 2003. The clashes took place less than 24 hours before bureaucrats from both countries met to discuss cross-LoC confidence-building measures.

Read more ....

More News On Kashmir

Four killed in Kashmir violence -- BBC
Troops kill rebels in Kashmir after pilgrims targeted: police -- AFP
New round of violence in Kashmir kills 8 -- Radio Australia
8 dead as Kashmir unrest continues -- ABC News Australia
Grenade blast hits Held Kashmir mountain resort -- The Nation
At Least Nine Soldiers Killed in Explosion in Indian Kashmir -- Truth News
India, Pakistan begin new round of peace talks -- AFP
Top Indian diplomat blames Pakistan in bombing of Indian embassy in Kabul -- International Herald Tribune
India-Pakistan dialogue process under strain: India -- Thaindian
India makes its anger at Kabul attack clear -- Economics Times

My Comment: Expect the violence to escalate. Pakistan will use this increase in tensions to withdraw its forces from the tribal regions that border Afghanistan to the borders of Kashmir. This action will be used as leverage against the U.S. and Nato .... informing them that they can now no longer guarantee military action against the Taliban. By doing this, I am sure their strategy involves pressuring the U.S. and Nato to convince India in making concessions.

I can see how this strategy may have worked a few years ago, but because Pakistan has cried wolf so many times .... no one is now listening. The danger is that Pakistan may go ahead anyway, exposing their tribal regions to Taliban attack and occupation, and pressuring India into a military response with them.

This is the scary part. India and Pakistan have had numerous wars and skirmishes in the past 50 years. These conflicts have cost the lives of millions, and the ethnic cleansing of large communities. The bitterness and hate has never gone away.

I am sure that Pakistan's provocations and attacks against Indian embassies, military outposts, and the LoC will result in an Indian military response. If this is to happen .... many fingers will then be very close to nuclear triggers, and what happens after that is anyone's guess.

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