Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Does Deterrence Still Work?

On August 9, 1945, the American B-29 bomber, Bock's Car left Tinian carrying Fat Man, a plutonium implosion-type bomb. The primary target was the Kokura Arsenal, but upon reaching the target, they found that it was covered by a heavy ground haze and smoke, pilot Charles Sweeney turned to the secondary target of the Mitsubishi Torpedo Plant at Nagasaki. Of the 286,00 people living in Nagasaki at the time of the blast, 74,000 were killed and another 75,000 sustained severe injuries. Source: National Archives

Deterrence Still Works For States, But Not For Terrorists -- The Telegraph

If a nuclear-armed Iran is worrying, the idea of al-Qaeda with nukes is appalling, says Alasdair Palmer.

The international conference on "nuclear disarmament" organised in Tehran this weekend by the Iranian government is an attempt to distract the world's attention from the fact that Iran is poised to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. An Iran armed with nuclear warheads, and the missiles with which to lob them at nearby countries, is a very frightening prospect – but it's not nearly as frightening as terrorists armed with nukes.

Read more ....

My Comment: Are we in a state of denial .... after reading this commentary I will have to say yes.

4 comments:

Mark said...

Hey.. care to elucidate why you believe so? cheers

WNU Editor said...

Good question Mark.

In my travels I have noticed that altitudes towards the use of nuclear weapons is different around the world.

The U.S., Europe, Russia, China, etc. .... these countries have a history of experiencing total war and destruction. With the exception of the U.S., these countries understand what mass destruction and the resulting millions and millions of casualties will mean. Hence .... there may be nuclear weapons in these countries, but I am confident to say that they will never be the country that will initiate the first use of nuclear weapons. The reason why is simple .... they know perfectly well the consequences of what such an action will mean.

Iran, Pakistan, India, most of the Middle East, Venezuela, Brazil, etc., the leadership (and peoples) in these countries may have experienced war and conflict, but they have never experienced what total war and total destruction can bring.

I recalled during the Clinton administration there was a crisis in which he had to send his personal advisers and Sec. of State Albright to India and Pakistan to dissuade them from starting another war. The fact that both countries had put their nuclear forces on alert .... and were prepared to use them .... only heightened this emergency.

When this crisis finally calmed down, U.S. officials made it known that they were shocked at the altitude that both Pakistan and India had towards the use nuclear weapons .... to them it was just another weapon to use.

I would not be surprised that countries like Iran, Syria, and Venezuela have this same perception. Nuclear weapons are weapons that may deliver a bigger bang .... but that is about it.

With such a mindset .... how can nuclear weapons be used as a deterrent when the other side is not afraid of it.

Are the Iranian mullahs afraid of nuclear weapons? Pakistan and India? Al Qaeda?

I do not think so .... and this is the scenario that concerns and brings fear to those who are trying to make a safer world. How can you bridge a gap in which the other side does not share the same worries and fears that you do.

I give credit to President Obama for trying .... but I have the impression that he is ignoring the failed results of his efforts .... and it is his current reactions that makes me wonder if he is a President who is in denial.

Then again .... he may know exactly what is happening .... but chooses to keep his policies and strategies private.

I guess only time will tell.

Mark said...

Hey, thanks for explaining.. I also fear that religious beliefs (after life, concept of Martyrdom, etc) will play a role in this.

Well, as I always put it: The next 50years shall be "interesting"

WNU Editor said...

In 50 years I will be exactly 100 years old .... hmmmm .... I may still be around.