'I promised you we would win. We have won. Glory to Russia,” Vladimir Putin said Sunday after a landslide victory in the Russia's presidential election. AFP PHOTO / RIA-NOVOSTI / KREMLIN POOL / DMITRY ASTAKHOV
Russian Tycoon: We Must Prepare For Putin’s Inevitable Downfall -- Josh Rogin, Daily Beast
The man who spent 10 years in prison for crossing Putin says the Russian regime will fall, one way or the other, and those who want a democracy to replace it need to get organized now.
In December 2013, when Vladimir Putin released Mikhail Khodorkovsky from prison after 10 years, the former oil tycoon and political prisoner said he would not enter politics. Only months later, however, he is spending millions to build a new political infrastructure to prepare for what he says is the inevitable fall of Putin’s regime.
“When I left prison, I announced that I am not interested in engaging in politics. I never promised anyone I wouldn’t engage in it and I continue to be not interested in engaging in it,” Khodorkovsky told The Daily Beast in an interview in Washington. “At the same time, I feel it imperative to attempt to influence the power. I feel it imperative that that section of the population that is Europe-centered would have the opportunity to impact the way the country develops.”
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My Comment: A few days ago I called my aunt who lives in Moscow. She had just turned 75 years old and lives in a brand new apartment complex that caters to seniors (courtesy of the Putin government a few years ago). She was excited because she had just received a brand new stove and fridge for her kitchen .... courtesy of .... you guess right again .... the government of Vladimir Putin. So .... who do you think she (and all of her neighbors) vote for when it is election time.
Putin's base are the seniors, those who are deeply religious (Russian Orthodox), the military, government workers, and the rural vote. Mikhail Khodorkovsky's base is Moscow and Saint Petersburg (to a certain degree), intellectuals, .... and some in the expat community. Unless the economy implodes and Putin cracks down on the few liberties that Russians enjoy (which he will not) .... Mikhail Khodorkovsky can spend a billion dollars .... and he will not make a dent in the polls.
8 comments:
Since you emphasized in your Glorious Return post a bit ago that you started this to practice your English, I'll point out that it should be "Are Putin's days limited?" "Days" is the subject, and is plural.
Welcome back from your brief visit to non-existence! :)
I concur, also i doubt Putin will leave his post peacefully if somone try to force him out or USA try to meddle in Russian politics, which i doubt will happen since if it fails the consquenses would be catastropic. Just to quiqly ask do you think the ceasfire in eastern Ukraine is going to last? Also the Germans are considering to send 200 soldiers to moniter the ceastfire in eastern Ukraine. If the govermnet aprove it and one of the soldiers get killed by artillery shrappel, would there be fatal consquenses? I am unsure how the rules for foreign soldiers stationed in another country, if they get attacked or killed. Sorry if this is badly formulated.
Thank you Dan for pointing this out .... and I have corrected the title as per your suggestion. The proper use of language is important to me .... so I do appreciate your input.
I hate to admit it .... but it has always been a struggle for me to write good English. What does not help is that I usually spend my days talking only Russian and/or French .... and when I do sit down to write a post for this blog .... my English grammar .... especially in the first two or three posts .... is usually not the best.
Sighhh .... I hate to admit it .... but when it comes to writing it looks like I should slowly drift into one language instead of jumping into it right away ... especially when it comes to writing in English.
I'm curious, what makes you think Putin won't crack down on Russian liberties?
Damn you James .... I was hoping that I would not be called on the carpet to explain that one. Sighhh .... for me to do a proper answer .... I would have to write a book .... because the answer is not that straight forward.
Suffice it to say that how Americans see liberty and how Russians see liberty ... it is like talking about bananas and oranges. The cultures are that different. What is important in the U.S. .... not so in Russia .... and vice versa. Case in point .... Putin's clampdown on the main stream media would be unacceptable in the U.S., but in Russia .... it is understood and accepted. But if Putin should limit the rights for expression on the internet and/or in social forums .... Putin's popularity would plummet to zero. Hence ... no crack down there .... at least not directly.
The freedom to make money (and to keep most of it) is seen as a symbol of liberty and freedom in Russia (as well as security) .... hence no desire in Moscow or in Putin to limit that. But Russians shiver when they see what U.S. tax policy is all about .... even more so when they hear reports that the IRS is targeting opponents of the White House. For those who follow U.S. news .... they do not understand why the U.S. reaction has been subdued on this matter .... especially in much of the main stream media.
I understand that the fear in the West is that Putin will clamp down on the flow of information, throw dissidents into jail, limit free speech, punish those who criticize (via through loss of employment or worse), and rig the system to only benefit him and his allies. But this is also what Russians fear .... and if threatened I can guarantee you that they will react strongly and with force. Fortunately .... this is something that Putin also knows. He saw what happened in Moscow in 1993 .... and he knows that if you push the people so far .... they will react.
But for the moment .... Putin is enjoying immense popularity right now .... so why limit liberties right now .... there is no benefit for him. None. But a lot of downside if he does.
OK, I get that. But my thoughts go farther on than just the outer manifestations of why he does certain things (the quest for the keeping of power, etc). I have found it really hard to get an understanding of just who is this guy, what make shim tick. I've kept up on what has been written and said about him to a fair extant and he's still very elusive. He's not the kind of leader that you guys usually produce. He doesn't seem to be Nomenklatura, or an old Bolshie, Tsarist, or even Regionalist strongman. I'm might be missing something obvious, but somehow I don't think so.
PS: And I DON'T believe the rumors he's Andropov's great grandson.
Andropov's great grandson he is definitely not.
I now understand what you are looking for James. How did a KGB apparatchik based in Germany end up in Saint-Petersburg municipal politics .... and from there into Boris Yeltsin's office .... and from there to the Presidency of Russia.
James .... Russia is like England .... its all about one's family class and history. In the case of Putin his grandparents and his parents worked side by side with many of Russia's former leaders and "heroes". As a child he probably met some of them .... and it would not surprise me if one or two of them became his mentor. He fell under their wing .... they protected him .... they promoted him .... and they educated him. They introduced him to all of the right people .... and he always listened to them. When he was put in charge of selling state property and assets in Saint Petersburg .... he was then able to add financial contacts into his political network .... and as a reward he got an office in the Kremlin not far from Boris Yeltsin's office.
Boris Yeltsin liked Putin for a number of reasons .... but probably the big one was that Yeltsin knew that Putin respected him .... and that Putin always deferred and obeyed Yeltsin's decisions. On this point .... I commend Putin because I know that it must have been hard. When I was working in the FO I think I was the only one who admired Yeltsin .... and the reason why was/is simple .... I was there when I saw him stand on top of a tank in front of the Russian White House when the old Guard had launched their coup attempt in 1991 .... a coup that thankfully failed. That ... and the pulling down of the Soviet Flag from the Kremlin are the two images that I will never forget .... (my Berlin Wall moment).
While Putin was showing his loyalty .... the Russian political establishment and the elites never did .... something that Yeltsin could never forgive ... and did not. They were many better candidates than Putin when Yeltsin made the decision to retire .... but Putin was the only one who openly showed Yeltsin his loyalty .... something that Boris Yetsin as his last act as president returned by making Putin acting President .... a one finger salute to all of those who were laughing at him behind his back and who expected one of their own to be appointed to the President's office.
That is how Putin came to power .... but keeping power is another thing .... and that story is even more incredible. I credit one man for that .... Vladislav Surkov .... the brains behind Putin. But that is for another time.
As to how do I know all of this .... I mentioned his name once to you before (he is my father's cousin) .... but he was also my mentor who showed me "the ropes and the right contacts" .... Andrei G.
Damn .... I miss that old guy.
Hmmmm .... I better start writing that book. :)
WNU,
I was just kidding on the Andropov statement. Did a little checking up on Surkov. The Dudayev name caught my eye. I wonder is that a common Chechen name? Anyway thanks, that's closer to what I'm after, but still not exactly it. I mean is he a nationalist, religion motivated, old style Russian autocrat, or something quite different? He's managed to conceal what is he is very well, at least from the West. Maybe that's just old habits from his former occupation.
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