Is Russia Stable?

Steven Hall, Stratfor: Putin's Russia Is More Stable Than It Seems

A quick scan of the press, social media and even some scholarly literature reveals significant discussion about the prospects for instability that are facing Russia. The general theory usually goes something like this: The dramatic drop in world oil prices, coupled with Western economic sanctions in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, will cause enough economic and social unrest in Russia to become a threat to President Vladimir Putin's government. In support of this theory, observers point to recent protests (such as those by Russian long-haul truckers because of increased tolls), anti-Putin rhetoric authored by Russian opposition bloggers on the Internet, and even incidents such as the still-unsolved murder of opposition figure Boris Nemtsov. Some claim these are examples of how instability is growing in Russia, and the extent to which the Kremlin needs to go to stifle it.

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WNU Editor: Steven Hall is right .... Russia is far more stable than what it seems. But .... the economy does play a role, and if the poor situation continues, Putin's popularity will go down (which is happening now). Will this translate at the polls .... we shall know in two years when Putin prepares for the next Presidential election. But if this trend continues he will be in trouble, and his only saving grace is that the opposition is still too fractured and disorganized to mount an effective challenge. But a year is an eternity in politics .... and while Putin may be the only viable candidate on the political scene right now, that may all change by next year..