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Zachary Keck, National Interest: China Is Gaining Control of the South China Sea (Thanks to North Korea)
With the United States laser-focused on the North Korean nuclear problem, China is cementing its control over the South China Sea.
Earlier this month, CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI)—which closely tracks China’s island-building campaign using satellite imagery—reported that 2017 has been a productive year for Beijing. After completing most of its dredging work to create the artificial islands in previous years, China has turned its attention to transforming these into operational military outposts. As AMTI observed, “Beijing remains committed to advancing the next phase of its build-up—construction of the infrastructure necessary for fully-functioning air and naval bases on the larger outposts.” To this end, China used 2017 to build everything “from underground storage areas and administrative buildings to large radar and sensor arrays.”
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WNU Editor: The Chinese have definitely been methodical in their approach on establishing control of the South China Sea. The key question that still remains unanswered is when will the Chinese start enforcing their claims to the entire region instead of the areas around their reclaimed islands.
7 comments:
Wnu I think
1) the Chinese claim is outlandish
2) their policy is firmly rejected by almost every country in the region except north Korea and to some extent the Philippines (both countries ruled by murderers, one even bragging about his crimes)
3) China has made a lot of enemies over some rocky islands and they will not see any support
4) China's plan to distract the world by arming and helping North Korea is incredibly selfish, transparent, inhumane and reveals that they (China) are not ready to lead the region, let alone the world
5) the position China has forced on the US at the barrel of a nuclear gun is outrageous. They are risking the deaths of millions of Americans (and north Koreans)
6) I think trump will have no choice but to attack north Korea
7) China and the US will clash in 2018 over this very issue
8) the countries surrounding China, most notably Japan and Australia ate rejecting China's aggressiveness more and more openly - see recent Australian crackdown on Chinese meddling in their country and last week pacifist Japan decided to implement missiles facing China - a first in decades (!!) of pacifism
9) the world will side with the US on this, probably soundly. Nato will accept invoking of article 5 in this situation. And I think Russia, in a first, will side with the US too because they realise the injustice here and ultimately that there's no future between China and Russia (plus they see the opportunity here. ..keeping China down serves Russian interest) Despite all the bickering, the US and Russia are much, much closer culturally and ethnically. On top, orthodox Christianity - part of Russia's fabric still - is not welcome in China (see crackdown on any religion in China)
10) China will face massive and insurmountable opposition and will ultimately back down to avoid war it cannot win
11) As a consequence of this China will lose its puppet buffer state
12) there will be war on the Korean peninsula and hundreds of thousands will die thanks to China causing this issue
13) after the humiliating defeat ob this issue, China will be further isolated and return to domestic issues it needs to address (increasing debt, aging population)
13) the Chinese century is over before it began
14) as a consequence Xi will be replaced
15) north and south Korea will be united
16) a democratic, pro western state will result
17) 20-30 years from now China will be able to reflect on its mistakes and policy of aggression against APAC countries
Anon,
I love your long-term optimism.
Wnu that's my point. .you too want that outcome (you call it optimism). I'm in Asia right now and there's no love for China here. China has an untested army and is eating its own propaganda about its capabilities. Vietnam won't come to its help either, they resent their meddling in the north. Taiwan certainly won't help them. South Korea won't. Australia won't. Japan absolutely won't. Who will? Philippines? Maybe. The Philippines are deeply US friendly though. ..I've been there, have you? Duterte is hedging his bets at best. North Korea is the only country that for sure would back China
Don't you think that's a pretty pathetic score card for China if almost none of your neighbours want to help you?
Don't eat the Chinese propaganda, I keep telling you
Lots of blah blah blah...ok. Chinese are very aggressive in the China Sea, but we were told Tump, unlike Obama, tough and would stand up for our interests....when does that take place?
Fred ...I don't care about Trump. He's an intellectual loghtweight at best and a vulgar, dishonest man, but if you don't see that he has taken a lot of steps already that Obama hasn't, you're captured in your own bubble. Look beyond cnn/msnbc. I despise Trump, and like Obama infinitely more on a human level. But strategically Obama has been an amateur. Increase of drone wars led to massive resentment and didn't win the war. Ground troops did. Changing rules of engagement did. Russian involvement did. Obama made also huge mistakes with his publicly announced pivot to Asia - root cause to China's Aggression and prepping of North Korea. On top, the red line debacle... You have to be able to distinguish people from policies and strategy. The person Obama was great. The person Trump... let's just put it this way, I wouldn't leave him alone with my daughter. But in terms of moving interests forward, branding China as competitor, is a huge step already. Yesterday's UN fiasco again showed he's a bully and doesn't understand subtleties in politics. But you have to be able to look beyond that and see that he's actually had some successes as well and doesn't just accept what the media has been telling us for years under the umbrella of being PC and supporting bleeding heart SJWs. Look at what happens in universities across the country. People can no longer openly debate and oppose ideas. At universities ffs! Because everyone is so insulted and feels so entitled. That did happen under Obama, not Trump, and he's pushing back on it, which I applaud. Having multiple degrees and spending a lot of time at various universities, including ivy league, I can tell you this is very important for freedom of thought and expression. I count myself towards the left, believe it or not, but I hate what "my side" has become. A bunch of self- entitled whiners and weaklings. So ultimately I take the good (labeling China as competitor is huge to me) with the bad (Trump's stand on the EPA and environmental issues and him putting people like Haley in front of the UN). I don't mean to belittle you or your thoughts, Fred, I know who you are and love your website. But please don't be so one sided. The bubble exists on both sides. Look beyond it.
Did you read my comment in full or just the first two lines? ;)
"like Obama infinitely more on a human level. "
Obama is likable? Ted Bundy seemed likable. Obama spent 20 years in Rev Wright's church and claimed to have heard none of the racist spew coming from the good reverend'mouth. Wright is best buds with Louis Farakhan and Wright is Obama's rev. If you think the proximity socially and idealogical of Obama and Farahkhan is not detestable and worrisome, then you are living along the banks of de Nile.
"But strategically Obama has been an amateur. "
What president is not an amateur except one, who has 1 term under their belt?
Trump is more vulgar than JFK or Ted Kennedy? Really? You know there are picture of Ted Kennedy with behind sticking up in the air on top of some woman off the coast of Marthas Vinyard. Your type of guy?
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