How Would The U.S. Respond If Russia Or China Shot Down A Manned American Spy Plane ?

An MC-12W intelligence and reconnaissance aircraft returns from a mission over Afghanistan in 2014. (Senior Airman Kayla Newman/Air Force)

Air Force Times: War game: If China or Russia downed an ISR aircraft, how would the US really respond?

Will the rise of drone warfare unintentionally drag the world into more conflicts?

That’s what some pundits and policymakers have cautioned in the past, arguing that the absence of human pilots will allow military leaders to take on riskier missions without suffering political blow-back from losing crewmembers if a mission goes awry.

A war game held at MIT Lincoln Labs and Harvard University in September 2017, however, challenges that assumption.

The study makes the case that drone warfare could decrease the likelihood of conflict between states, as military planners will avoid the trap of escalating military options if an aircraft is lost.

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WNU Editor: There are cases in the recent past that give an insight on how the U.S., Russia, and China will respond today if a plane is shot down. When a Russian fighter was shot down by Turkey in 2015 (2015 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 shootdown), threats and an increase in military deployments was the Russian response. In the case of China and the U.S. .... the Chinese lost a fighter jet when it bumped a U.S. intelligence plane over the South China Sea in 2001 (Hainan Island incident). The U.S. and Chinese response was political and diplomatic .... a military response was not used. My guess is that if Russia or China deliberately shot down a U.S. plane today, and there were casualties, the pressure to retaliate will be there. But U.S. military force will not be used. But if it should happen again .... the U.S. will retaliate very quickly.