Image: U.S. Department of Defense
Cortez A. Cooper III, National Interest: Is the U.S. Military Ready to Take on China's Armed Forces?
Here's what we know.
Americans are slowly but undeniably facing a new reality in global great power relations that will define the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy for the foreseeable future. The 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strategy mark an acknowledgment by not only the current administration but also a broad, bipartisan swath of government and private sector entities that China's increasing swagger as it emerges on the world stage warrants a more confrontational approach toward the country.
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WNU Editor: Some in the Chinese military are confident that they are ready to face the U.S. .... Senior Chinese Military Officer Calls For Attacks On U.S. Ships Conducting Freedom-Of-Navigation Operations In The South China Sea (December 10, 2019).
4 comments:
"Some in the Chinese military are confident that they are ready to face the U.S"
Is it dangerous? Yes and no.
Their confidence is making the war very close, and that's worrying.
In an other hand that's not that bad because they are blinded by their growing force. They can win the first few month, but they are not ready for a long war as we are.
At the end it will be very costly on blood and money, as WWII, but China will be defeated and have to make a regime change.
Jac, in all likelihood the place of confrontation will determine the outcome.
And in all likelihood a confrontation would happen in the asia pacific theater due to china's continued claims the international waters are not international but belong to them only.
The US and its allies will keep conducting freedom of navigation exercises and if anything happens my guess is it will be a limited exchange followed by long needed stern talks.
We all like to toss around ideas of nuclear exchange because it's dramatic but no man or woman will be OK with such an action unless there is absolutely no way out, which would be a lie in 99% of all cases - a crazed Xi or rogue general on either side is the only realistic scenario for this to happen, or a prolonged war in which both sides are increasingly inhumane to each other. Given the security steps required for a launch on the US side you'd really have to have two or more senior officers launch a previously remotely armed nuke from a sub. I don't know anything about china's fail safe steps, but my guess is - due to their limited experience-this might be a risk factor.
I don't think this is realistic at all since we all have an interest in these two military giants to relax.
What might happen though is a limited exchange/a bloody nose exchange in which one side seeks strategic and overwhelming advantage. And, I'm sorry to say this but home advantage (not just knowing the territory better/have better underwater maps in the area etc, but also reach of home defense systems like missiles and huge logistic/supply advantages go to china as their supply distances are much shorter..so any prolonged war will go to their advantage and bigly. On top the sheer numbers are on their side. Sure, from a mathematical point we could kill them all. But what victory would that be? It is unspeakable - there would be hundreds of millions of children too. It just cannot happen, must not happen and we all know that .so in reality, a small exchange when tempers flair is more realistic, but I do accept the fact that humans have done the unspeakable before. .it's our shared responsibility to never let it happen again. No matter of Chinese, American, German, Russian or Japanese. If our leaders cannot deliver on this core issue of humanity then they are either no leaders and we should not/must not follow
"We all like to toss around ideas of nuclear exchange because it's dramatic but no man or woman will be OK with such an action unless there is absolutely no way out"
The way I heard it, it is for real. I have to get confirmation. The idea is not actual planned nuclear exchanges, but it is where it leads. The Indian whisperer would get to see their 115 or 150 nukes come about.
" a crazed Xi or rogue general on either side is the only realistic scenario for this to happen"
That already happened it seems. Might not know until we get a description of the debris field and a forensic description of it, but this was posited in "Red Star Rogue".
The Soviet theologian (#3 guy) and a cabal of others planned on using a bomb made with Chinese uranium to blow up Honolulu. the Chinese uranium was obtained in payment for Russian machine tools. When Americans would study the radioactive isotopes it would be traced back to a Chinese mine. The sub used was one that had been mothballed by the Russians for the most part and a few sold to China. The plot failed due to a fail safe.
What can I say, communist true believes are nice people. It is why Stalin's daughter and Gorbachev lived in the US for so long and not the other way around.
If Hollywood even did a film adaptation of the book, the people on the missile sub would be Michigan militia or South Afrikaans (Sum of All Fears).
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