The Hill: Biden opens 13-point lead over Trump in Kaiser Family Foundation poll
Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a 13-point lead over President Trump in the latest Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) tracking poll released on Friday.
The poll shows the presumptive Democratic nominee garnering about 51 percent of the vote in the general election, while Trump trails with 38 percent. Among those who preferred Biden, 37 percent said they would “definitely” vote for him in November, while another 14 percent said that they “probably” would.
For Trump, 30 percent of respondents said they would “definitely” cast their ballot for him in the general election, while about 8 percent said they “probably” would.
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WNU Editor: Regular readers of this blog know that I follow polls closely. I always look at the methodology that is used in making a poll, and from there I try to determine if the poll makes any sense. It is through this analysis that I noticed four years ago that the polls that were being published were using samples that tilted Democrat by about 10%. The result were totally inaccurate polls like this one .... Clinton Opens 12-Point Lead on Trump as Two-Thirds See Him as Biased (POLL) (ABC News). And the polls of today are still doing the same mistake, as I pointed out in this CNN poll .... Is President Trump's Approval At 38%? (June 8, 2020). But in the past week I have noticed something new. Most pollsters are no longer giving information on the sample that they used in making their polls. If that is not a red flag, I do not know what is.
Update: They are only fooling themselves .... Shut Up About 2016 and Trust the (Good) Polls (Vice).
19 comments:
That's a really good poll: 100% of the left are against Trump and 0% of the left are for Trump. Well Biden will win with 200% of the vote, of course.
The polls may be as phony today as they were 4 years ago, but with mail in ballots the Left can steal the election, Afterwards, they will opine that the polls were correct.
I see Democrat governors going all out such as in California to crash the economy. They know in a a blue state that it has such a built in cushion that they will stay n power, but the president may not, so they crash the economy with health restrictions.
Newsom Forces CA County to Reinstate COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Order, Says 15 Counties on “Watchlist” – Threatens to Withhold Funding to Counties Who Flout Order
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06/newsom-forces-ca-county-reinstate-covid-19-stay-home-order-says-15-counties-watchlist-threatens-withhold-funding-counties-flout-order/
If a poll does not indicate what you like, refer to the Clinton election.
If a poll shows what you do like, then cite it.
If polls are not good indicators, then never list what any of them say
"Don’t forget, there is an undeniable truth in politics, and it is this: Polling data is used to shape public opinion. Polling data… Whether it’s presidential races or anything else, if it’s a poll, it is being used to make news. Polling has become the mechanism by which the media can write their own stories, can set their own agenda, and make it look like they’ve got nothing to do with it. The polls have these reputations of independent, nonpartisan, bipartisan, uninterested in the outcome.
“Why, we don’t do anything funny with our polls. We just go out there, we try to find the best sample we can, and try to give you the most accurate presentation we can, and that’s it.” But they use polls to make and shape public opinion and they will do so until a week before the election. Pay attention to the polls in the last five days. That’s where the pollsters will want to actually have it right. And I’m just telling you, I don’t want you to be surprised if we get down to 10 days and five days and these polls show a sudden surge by Trump that they can’t figure out, they’ll say"
That is how pollster can have their cake and eat it too.
Lie before the election.
When the actual vote date is near, release unbiased polls. Many many times long time polling organizations have oversampled certain segments of the population.
They forget how to poll?
They ave a new guy and he made a rookie mistake?
Numerous times people including WNU have looked at the internals of the polls and seen over sampling.
So 5:47 what is your excuse de jour for oversampling? How many times in a month are you going to wear that excuse out?
Clinton did win using popular vote, don't forget. Trump is in office due to the states' delegate vote. Thank goodness.
if polls are, as anon says, used to get votes prior to the election, why post "results" for any candidate?
Betting sites represent a form of polling but used for gambling. They are more often right than wrong
Will the winning ever end?
I think not!
you lose
Democrat operative James Carville seems supremely confident, however, if watched carefully, this may not be the case. He reminds of the character in the Shakespeare play "thou doest protest much." Essentially the brash behavior is cover for a lack of confidence.
Also, on the one hand he says the race isn't going to be close but pn the other hand he says the only way Trump can win is if he cheats!! If an election is lopsided as Mr. Carville so brazenly predicts it will be, cheating would be impossible!! Essentially he's not as confident as his rhetoric indicates.
"if polls are, as anon says, used to get votes prior to the election, why post "results" for any candidate?"
What is the purpose of propaganda and psyops?
Surely you asked that in jest or as a troll. You cannot be that stupid.
Well maybe you could. You always said you never did well in school.
Is the Parrot, a devout follower of the NYT Fane, going to watch 'Mr. Jones' in theatre or DVD?
Or is that cat too down with the struggle to see the truth?
ah, the stalker who sends me email and has a strange obsession with me is back again! Welcome, little wanker
I have never sent you email. Server logs would show as much. They do keep server logs for 6 months, so watch what you say. Nor do I visit your website.
But I see that you have went off on a tangent to avoid answering, if you had seen the movie. Anything to avoid truth eh Mr. Parrot?
Why would I bring the move Mr Jones up? Because you are an admitted aficionado of the fiction that the NYT prints and the move is about the many lies the NYT has told.
Walter Duranty was not before your time, but it was a long time ago. Normally, that would be true and a good argument. But when did the NYT stop lying? When did the NYT get well and was discharged from the loony farm?
"Gareth Richard Vaughan Jones (13 August 1905 – 12 August 1935) was a Welsh journalist who first reported in the Western world, without equivocation and under his own name, the existence of the Soviet famine of 1932–33, including the Holodomor."
server logs record fake names and toss away emails from someone here who now has the legal and birth name: Anon
if you do not stalk me, why do you claim to quote me from some other place?
Stalking?
I don't go to your website or leave nasty comments at your website or any comments at your website. I do not send you email. I have not replied to musings on any other site other than this one.
However, since you posted under your name, I did look up your public posts in the public domain, which are publicly available. Why?
Because I cannot believe that you post what you post. I figured you were a troll. No one could be that illogical, I thought.
What I found was a virulent athiest (I have a kid, who is an athiest, and I told them I am okay with it so long as they are not virulent about it.), a typical anti-racist racist (IMO), a partisan hack and other not so good stuff.
I do not claim to quote you. I actually quote you. Those other places ... are public domain.
I hold you in the same high regard as the street preacher with his fortification in a bottle wrapped in a brown paper bag yelling on the university quads on a hot spring day, when I am taking a test in a building with out air conditioning. I hold in the that high of regard.
If other people actually email you, well that is on them I sleep good at night.
sir or madam--
you do go to my website. You accuse me of posting porn and/or NSFW...how would you know what I post unless you go specifically to my website. You not only then are a stalker but also a liar
You have bragged about posting porn at this site. If people take you at your word and people consider you truthful in at least some things. One could reasonably surmise from your posts here that you post porn at your website and have not gone to your site.
You believe that look at the logs.
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