David Axe
David Axe, Forbes: The Taiwanese Island Fortress That Could Halt A Chinese Invasion
There are only so many ways for China to invade Taiwan. The country’s main island is mountainous and rocky on its east coast. The good beaches are on the west coast, in particular in Taiwan’s southwest plain.
If China invades, it’s most likely going to land troops along that plain. But there’s at least one big obstacle to that approach. A fortified Taiwanese island that looms like a jagged speed-bump in the middle of the Taiwan Strait.
To be clear, it in theory is possible for a Chinese invasion fleet to directly attack Taiwan’s capital Taipei, in the country’s north, by sailing straight into the city’s port. Chinese planners reportedly have drawn up plans for just such an operation.
Ian Easton, senior director at the pro-Taiwan Project 2049 Institute and author of The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia, gamed out a Taipei gambit in a 2018 article.
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WNU Editor: I do not know if this "island fortress" will halt a China invasion. But I do know it will be a primary target for the Chinese in the event they decide to invade.
13 comments:
You won't "halt" a Chinese invasion. You may be able to make their ultimate victory so pyric that they won't invade in the first place especially when they know how difficult it is going to be. There are three steps one should take. This would especially apply to Taiwan. 1.) Build up your defenses to the point that it will be extremely costly for an invader. In Taiwan's case, this would mean developing a robust nuclear deterrent. They should have the technical knowhow and the financial ability to do this. As to why it was not done a long time ago is a mystery to me. No time like the present to get started!! 2.) Find something your enemy, in this case China, needs and find a way to supply it to them less expensively, more efficiently, and/or of higher quality than they can obtain anywhere else. In the event of an invasion of you, they risk losing access to this. This would give them pause in wanting to invade. 3.) Search out others and supply them with similar things they need ensuring if you are invaded you will actually have someone who may assist you as they will need to come to your aid lest they lose valuable things that they need. Furthermore the enemy knowing you have a robust system of alliances will be much less likely to invade you.
There is the sound strategy for Taiwanese self defense. Part 1 they can get started on right away. As for parts 2 and 3 this may take some time but I am sure resourceful people like the Taiwanese will be able to figure these things out if they have the right leadership. Hint: any reliance on "made in USA" is NOT a good strategy.
Maginot Island?
The island fortress is meant to act as a tripwire, a casus belli to declare war on an aggressor, and to inflict as much damage on an invasion fleet and.or delay it as long as possible.
Such a fort cannot survive. It can only hope to dish out more damage than it receives and make the cost benefit analysis such that it deters the aggressor.
In the lead up to WW2 the Germans scouted Switzerland. They determined that it was not worth the cost to invade. The Germans did not invade. If the Germans would have won against the USSR and England, there would have been an ultimatum to the Swiss.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Tannenbaum
The Germans would have don it earlier rather than later, but again at least one officer scouted the approaches and decided that the losses were too high for the eventual success.
The fort is intended to prevent the Chinese from giving the world a fait accompli. If China were able to do this you can bet your bottom dollar that liberals would accept it without protest.
Destroying airport, missile site and so on is something very possible. That said, entrenched defense coast is extremely difficult to get over it. This will be the worst challenge for PLA.
Stalin shot his wife in the face.
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