Militiamen joined a gathering in Kabul on Wednesday to declare their support for Afghan security forces in fighting the Taliban. Photo: Reuters
Wall Street Journal: Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After U.S. Withdrawal, New Intelligence Assessment Says
Taliban advances prompt agencies to revise outlook for how long Kabul can hold out
KABUL—The U.S. intelligence community concluded last week that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after the American military withdrawal from the country is completed, according to officials with knowledge of the new assessment.
American intelligence agencies revised their previously more optimistic estimates as the Taliban swept through northern Afghanistan last week, seizing dozens of districts and surrounding major cities.
Afghan security forces frequently surrendered without a fight, leaving their Humvees and other American-supplied equipment to the insurgents.
The new assessment of the overall U.S. intelligence community, which hasn’t been previously reported, has now aligned more closely with the analysis that had been generated by the U.S. military.
The military has already withdrawn more than half of its 3,500 troops and its equipment, with the rest due to be out by Sept. 11.
On Wednesday, Taliban fighters were battling government troops inside the northern city of Kunduz after occupying the main border crossing with Tajikistan the previous day and reaching the outskirts of northern Afghanistan’s main hub, Mazar-e-Sharif.
Tajikistan’s border service said 134 Afghan troops at the crossing were granted refuge while some 100 others were killed or captured by the Taliban.
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WNU Editor: Even the UN is issuing the same warnings .... Time running out to prevent ‘worst case scenario’ arising in Afghanistan (UN News).
What's my take.
If current trends continue, Kabul will fall in the spring/summer of next year. The geopolitical consequences of such a defeat will be enormous, and the refugee crisis it will spawn will impact all of central Asia and beyond. Politically .... the Biden administration will be blamed for this disaster, and the Democrats will be paying a severe price in the midterm elections next year.
4 comments:
By spring 2022, Afghanistan will be the least of the disasters the “Biden administration “ will be facing.
Well, next spring is very optimistic, it will be much faster. Yes, democrat's will take the blame even they are not the only guilty. I don't think it will be a game changer in the US political game, it will be quickly forgotten.
For the geopolitical consequence I still have difficulties to understand the critical strategic importance of Afghanistan. Good luck for our successor.
The UN can go to Hell. The UN is suppose prevent barbaric groups such as the Taliban form seizing power by force and enslaving people.
The UN had 20 years to do something besides fulminate, break wind, and collect salaries.
Another disastrous foreign intervention costing life and treasure AND NO CONSEQUENCES FOR THOSE WHO STARTED THE WAR
Until this ends, the "start a war and get away with it", you'll never see your tax dollars go to schools or infrastructure or healthcare.
You're paying for the failure of politicians.
Over and over and over again.
Your system doesn't work. It spreads misery and evil.
We need a new system. I don't know what it'll look like, but it cannot be like this.
All these senseless deaths. Wrapped in a flag, and you're not allowed to criticise it, because of patriotism. Right.
They take your money
They take your sons
They spread death
They spread misery
If we cannot contain this most basic evil, and are afraid to speak of this corruption that keeps the wars going, then we are not only slaves but slaves of a dark army that gets more and more twisted and vile by the year, now turning against its own people.
Wake
The
Fck
Up
Evil is spreading
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