WORLD War Three fears are growing after China vowed to invade Taiwan and explained how it would do it as the Communist Party celebrates its centenary.
An article in a state-controlled publication has offered a glimpse of a terrifying three-stage plan to pave the way for an invasion force to storm the breakaway island.
It comes as President Xi Jinping yesterday pledged a "complete reunification" with Taiwan as he delivered a speech to mark 100 years of the Chinese Communist party.
The warning came as tensions were increasing in the seas around China where the US and Japan are reported to have been holding joint military exercises amid fears of a possible conflict. Any invasion would represent a serious escalation of hostilities and could drag in the US through its pact to defend Taiwan.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: The Chinese government is not hiding its goals and intentions. But any invasion is not going to be easy. This is what China needs to be successful .... Here's What China Would Need to Invade Taiwan (Popular Mechanics). And this is what will probably happen .... Here’s what could happen if China invaded Taiwan (Business World).
Update: This is a good read .... Why a Taiwan Invasion Would Look Nothing Like D-Day (The Diplomat).
15 comments:
The big problem for Taiwan is not surviving the initial attacks. There is a very good chance that Taiwan will be able to defeat any invasion. The problem is when the conflict shifts to the long term and China adopts a strategy of attrition to weaken Taiwan until it falls, even if it requires five years or more. I don't see China simply giving up and making peace after a failed invasion. I see it committing to a long war if needed.
Taiwan is farther away from China that Great Britain is from the European continent, but Britain was always a peer of its continental rivals. Taiwan is not a peer of China. Time if therefore on China's side, not Taiwan's. Taiwan needs the ability to force China to make peace. It can't rely on international diplomatic pressure to do so.
For Taiwan to win any long term war of attrition, it needs the means to make the price too high for China which requires the ability to retaliate on the mainland in a massive way and to severely deny China's access to the sea to cut off its trade (probably not all of it, but enough to severely harm China's economy). Does Taiwan have that ability (most likely by producing lots of appropriate missiles) and can it sustain that under a long term attempt by China to blockade it? I have not read anything that indicates that. All articles are very short term in their perspective. My assumptions are that Taiwan doesn't. It needs to develop that ability.
Taiwan also needs the ability to keep its trade lanes open so it can receive supplies and earn foreign currency. Can it become self-sufficient in food? Can it stockpile any resources needed for a long war to keep its factories going (especially wartime industries) or to meet minimum civilian needs? Taiwan needs to be looking at this.
Chris
If China attacks and then starts a policy of attrition, then people sourcing goods in China for sale in the West should have done to them what is happening to statues.
China can nationalize the part of the supply chain of foreign nationals in China but do they really want a food and oil embargo?
For an oil embargo to work will Joe quit pissing in the Crown Prince's Cheerois?
India will attack soon Chinese fools
With a nuclear
Bombs all of them
It's over communist fools
It's both amazing and terrifying to see Unknowns brain in action
Well said Chris. I completely agree that the war would become one of attrition and I highly doubt Taiwan could survive that for long.
I do think it's possible for Taiwan to win a defensive war, but only if it prepares to do so and is ready before the shooting starts. It won't have enough time once war actually begins. Even big countries do become exhausted and determine the costs aren't worth it in certain conditions. The chances of that would depend on a lot of specifics of the exact scenario.
If nothing else, Taiwan clearly has the potential to create nuclear weapons. Simply having a half dozen nuclear weapons that could be delivered onto the mainland after being attacked would likely deter Beijing from attacking or even force it into peace. Taiwan likely has a clandestine nuclear weapons program to some degree, but probably don't have any actual weapons. Do they have any in secret? Or could assemble warheads in short enough time if the components are already available? If yes, their chances of survival improves greatly.
Chris
Unknown is not crazy. He is just a determined asshole of no great intellect. Uses a random number generator to create his comments.
His comments are to clutter up a thread to impede or stop comments on a thread. If you think of a website, where people comment as a small electronic town square, Unknown does not want to talk, because eventually they might come to a consensus. The further off he can put in the future to make the consensus less than a unanimous or a majority, then he feels he has done his work.
In his off time Unknown likes to molest barnyard animals.
The Diplomat article claims there were few civilians in the area of the d-day landings, yet preliminary bombardments killed over 19 000 civilians
Taiwan's weakness is its oil ports.
It has only 2 major ones. Take them out and their military runs dry in 2 weeks and as it's so close to China no way toy could supply them with oil and get away with it
Taiwan can easily be taken if China wants to and no one will do a thing, just like no one did a thing after the Wuhan virus and no one did a thing when they stole trillions from the west through IP, copyright and industrial espionage on a grand scale where everything from designs to floor plans was taken and the profits in the trillions were then weaponized against the west through further financing subversion, cultural attacks etc
And we, the west, raised their income, raised them from poverty and they hate us and are viciously aggressive.
I have a hard time to think China will said exactly what it will do before doing it. I know surprise is difficult in this century, that said telling about detail...especially from China which is the less transparent in the world is laughable.
Lol
"Mainland Taiwan" can talk all they want, but they'll never take back Taiwan. China can keep screaming into their collective pillows, it's never going to happen. Cope.
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