Is The Taliban Government Stable?

 

Spectator World: How stable is the Taliban government?  

The failure to form an inclusive administration means that the Taliban will have to rule by force as they do not have wide consent 

Some western governments and media have been involved in a collective act of wishful thinking in recent months over the Taliban — believing them somehow to be ‘moderate’ and on the way to forming an inclusive government. The idea began with their elevation of status as a partner in negotiations with the US in Doha. They were legitimized, so some believed they had changed. 

The last remnants of that belief must have been burnt out by the appointment of the Taliban cabinet this week, which was not inclusive in any sense, but was the result of three weeks of bartering between different Taliban factions, only resolved by the intervention of the head of Pakistani intelligence, the ISI, General Faiz Hameed. 

More than half of the members of the new government face international sanctions as terrorists. The list includes four of the five men released from Guantanamo in a prisoner swap in 2014 and four members of the Haqqani family, whose terrorist network was responsible for the largest attacks in Kabul in recent years, and who have US bounties on their heads. 

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WNU Editor: The Taliban government cancelled their oath-taking ceremony yesterday (see above video), and focused instead on the raising of their flag over the Presidential compound .... Taliban flag rises over Afghanistan presidential palace on 9/11 anniversary (AP). No foreign observers showed up.

Aside from the security situation, the Taliban are facing massive a financial and economic crisis that they cannot manage. The banks are either closed or operating at a fraction of their capacity. The curr3ency is worthless. Afghans who worked for the previous government are now out of work. Reports of hunger are now becoming widespread. And the aid that has been the source for survival for millions of Afghans has now dried up and/or frozen. 

Not exactly a stable situation.

There is an international aid conference on Afghanistan tomorrow .... U.N. seeks $600 million to avert Afghanistan humanitarian crisis (Reuters). And China with Pakistan are providing some assistance .... West ponders aid for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan quick to provide relief (Reuters). But this aid falls far short of the $19 billion that the West was giving each year. And you can take this to the bank. Qatar, China, and Pakistan combined are never going to give that type of money to the Taliban government. 

On the diplomatic scene the highest foreign official to visit the Taliban government happened today .... Qatar foreign minister in Afghanistan in first high-level visit (Al Jazeera). But he did not bring a check. The U.S. is again making it clear that they will not recognize the Taliban government .... Biden unlikely to formally recognize Taliban government (Politico). And I agree with this analysis that China is taking a wait and see approach .... China will be ‘very careful’ dealing with the Taliban government, former U.S. ambassador says (CNBC).