Will Russia Launch Their New Offensive From Moldova Or Belarus?

A Ukrainian serviceman of the 17th Independent Tanks Brigade drives a T-64 tank, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, near the frontline town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine February 23. REUTERS/Marko Djurica 

 DNYUZ/New York Times: Ukraine prepares itself for the possibility of Russian aggression via Moldova and Belarus. 

KYIV, Ukraine — As Ukrainian forces battle Russian attacks along the 600-mile front line and warn of an imminent large-scale missile bombardment, Kyiv is also casting an anxious eye on Russian threats via Belarus and Moldova that officials say pose minimal immediate risks but cannot be ignored. 

While military analysts have expressed doubt about Russia’s ability to open and sustain a new front in the war, Ukrainian and Western officials have warned that Moscow could try and divert Ukrainian resources through feints and deceptions, which could come from anywhere. 

This week, Ukraine deployed more troops to its border with Moldova, and the Ukrainian military has in recent months increased military drills near its border with Belarus and in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.  

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WNU Editor: Russia has troops and equipment in Belarus, but there is not enough there to launch an offensive on Ukraine from there. Even more so against Moldova. 

Update: A part of me is hoping and praying that Russia will not launch this major counter-operation that many have been predicting for the past month, and there are signs that it may not happen. 

Here are some of my observations: 

1) China has initiated a peace process. And while the US, NATO, and some EU states have rejected this effort, Kyiv has only publicly refused the provision of an immediate ceasefire but still wants to have talks with China. If this happens, Moscow will not order the start of this counter-operation until the Chinese have completed their efforts. That may take weeks, if not months. 

2) Russia has not ordered another mobilization. The military experts that I trust tell me that it would not make sense to launch a large-scale military operation if you do not have reserves in place to fall-back on if the offensive fails. But there is one big mobilization that is going to occur in the next two months. Every year young Russian males must serve in the military and that period of conscription occurs later in the spring. This may become the "second mobilization" of soldiers who will free up those who are currently providing the support structure of the Russian military and who may be deployed to Ukraine. Needless to say that the men who were conscripted last spring will not be permitted to go home until this war is over. 

3) Does Russia have enough weapons and ammo to maintain a major offensive? I know Russian industry is now in full war-time production mode. But it takes time to build-up your stockpiles and equipment. According to some Russian military bloggers that I follow, they believe it will only be in the summer time that Russia will have the firepower to launch such an offensive. 

4) Western intelligence has yet to see any mass movement of Russian forces to the front lines. It takes time to forward deploy a massive army, and unless the Russian army is very good at concealing their movements from Western spy satellites and communications interceptions (which I doubt), this offensive may be delayed.