Ukrainian servicemen attend an exercise, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, May 15. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
WNU Editor: There has recently been a lot of specualtion on why Ukraine has not launched its much publicized spring offensive. Here are some reasons why .... Why Ukraine’s spring offensive still hasn’t begun — with summer just weeks away (AP).
It is true that the weather has not been favourable. It is also true that about 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers are only completing their training now, and that ammo and weapons have been slow to arrive.
But I think a lot of important points have been ignored by the West, and my list and explanations are below.
1) The battle of Bakhmut. A lot was riding on the battle of Bakhmut, and the belief was that if Kyiv kept on deploying soldiers and material to the battle, the Russian forces would be repulsed. That did not happen, and because it did not happen a lot of time, manpower, and equipment was lost.
And now with this defeat, the Ukraine military will need to reassess the battlefield conditions. Establish new fortifications, and more importantly, deploy fresh units to new front lines, units that would have been used in the counteroffensive.
Bottom line. A lot of time is going go to be lost.
2) In the past 10 days Russia has conducted multiple missile and drone attacks against critical and strategic Ukrainian ammo dumps. Some of them have been spectacular, with the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in ordinance and ammunition .... Massive Explosion Rocks Western Ukraine After Ammunition Storage Site Attacked (May 15, 2023).
You cannot launch an offensive if you do not have the ordinance to back you up.
3) Not enough experienced and trained men to launch a counteroffensive. Russia currently has about 200,000 soldiers on the front-lines, with another 300,000 in reserve in Ukraine. There is also a minimum of 300,000 soldiers in Russia on the border of Ukraine that are ready to be deployed. You cannot launch a counteroffensive against a minimum of 500,000 Russian soldiers who are behind heavy fortifications and who command the air when you only have anywhere from 50,000 to 80,000 soldiers that can be used in the offensive. It would be suicide for the soldiers involved.
4) Russia is ready for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Here is some somber reading on how prepared Russia is for this Ukraine offensive .... Russia’s military has adapted and is now a more formidable enemy for Ukraine, defense analysts say (CNBC). More here .... Russia Adapted Arms and Tactics Ahead of Ukraine Offensive (Bloomberg). I am sure Ukraine's top generals know this, and want a revaluation on what they can realistically do.
5 comments:
Fortifications are death traps.
Well if Ukraine troops are up to date on there boosters ....then they will have no worries
WNU writes #1 as if the Russians have not lost any troops or equipment in and around Bakhmut.
What we have seen is:
- The Russians have conducted a partial withdrawal from Syria.
- It has withdrawn troops from Belarus.
- It has withdrawn troops form the Kola Peninsula.
With drawing troops from Belarus allows Kyiv to withdraw troops from that front.
All these troop withdrawals look like a lot of stress on the MoD. the key point is has it gone beyond the knee in the stress strain curve?
The Russian Navy has not been heard from beside abandoning Crimea. We will hear a lot less of them due to cruise missiles. The Russian stayed out of harpoon range, but now with cruise missiles they will be 'hangar queens".
with the navy MIA focus is going to shift to the Russian Airforce. Russian planes are going to die over Belgorod. the russians are going to sit farther back to launch or be relegated to shooting surface to surface missiles.
The Russian have a good train track repair department. They are dedicated and efficient. Still all the derailments have got to hurt.
Russia is doing so good it is using T-55s.
Well, I would guess that for thier sake, the Ukrainians hope you are right.
But if the Russians are so inept, why are the Ukrainians not winning?
Why are the Ukrainians having greater manpower losses?
If Ukrainian air power and armor power has been so effective, why do they need all this equipment from the West?
Why does the Ukrainian army need DU rounds if all the Russians have is T55s?
The standard APFSAS 120MM Round is complete overmatch for a t55.
The Ukrainians can go on the offensive. It is what the Russians want. This way the Ukrainians will expose the new western tanks and vehicles.
They will also expose all those new units with eu/Us trained personnel.
Then the Russians can bomb the snot out of them and kill them in a meat grinder.
If this happens, as McGregor says, it will be the third army the ukies have lost.
But future history is never assured. Maybe the Ukrainians will pull a rabbit out of thier hat.
I just hope the US does not do something stupid like fly the 101st airborne into Odessa to secure the southern flank. It will get ugly real fast.
Possibly, Ukraine will delay offensive in order to culminate during fall rains.
Article on Russian military evolution that is giving NATO pause:
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine
Full report:
https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
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