What if Things Don't Go Back to Normal?

Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: What if Things Don't Go Back to Normal? 

 One of the most frequently asked questions in these uncertain times, often uttered without the expectation of a definite answer, is “what’s going to happen next?” The honest answer is no one really knows. The failure of zero Covid, the Afghan collapse before the Taliban, the unexpected energy dependency of Europe on Russian gas, and the stubborn failure of Ukraine to collapse before the Putin blitz caught the experts by surprise and shows all too clearly the limits of prediction. Gone for now is the touching belief the policymakers had in models. For a time, due to the impressive increase in computing power, confidence in models became so great that predictions were treated as facts (‘trust the science’), forming the actual basis for government policy, in effect overconfidently moving reality to somewhere in virtual reality.  

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WNU Editor: I certainly do not see life returning back to normal. At least the normal that I grew acustomed to.`

The Russia - Ukraine war and the West's response to it all but guarantees that difficult times are ahead for all of this, and that the societal, economic, and political changes that it will produce will reverberate with us for a very long time.

Has 'People Power' Failed In Places Like Minsk, Caracus, And Hong Kong?

Will Hutton, The Guardian: From Minsk to Hong Kong, people power just isn’t working any more  

Last week’s detention of an activist in Belarus is only the latest of many signals that we must relearn how to defend our values 

The west’s ineffectiveness in the face of the arrant use of torture, unlawful arrest, savage imprisonment without trial and flagrant abuse of international law, even close to home in Europe, is among the bleakest symptoms of our times. The people power we saw embodied in the strikes in the Gdańsk shipyards, the fall of the Berlin Wall and even the Arab spring has not presaged the new era of democracy we once hoped for. Instead, the 21st century is becoming defined as a new era of agile autocracy and vicious strong-man rule. 

As the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, prepared the UK’s response to last Sunday’s forced landing of a Ryanair jet by a Belarusian MiG-29 over its airspace to secure the trumped-up detention of a well-known democracy activist, Roman Protasevich, it must have crossed his mind that Britain’s response would have been so much stronger within the EU. The UK is now a little Sir Echo, weakening the west. It is part of the reason why Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, can act with impunity, as he refuses to acknowledge his loss of last’s August presidential election.  

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WNU Editor: Belarus, Venezuela, Hong Kong .... when the government has the will to stay in power and it has the support of the intelligence and security forces, people power is not enough to change the government. It is only when the general population have made the decision to match the "cracking of heads" that the government is imposing on everyone that everything changes. 

Unfortunately for places like Venezuela, Belarus, or Hong Kong right now, that critical point has not been reached. The central governments are still in the driver's seat.

How Elon Musk Sees The World

WNU Editor: Westworld and The Expanse are my favorite shows. Two science fiction shows .... but  both that accurately reflect how people behave today (with excellent characters and a well written plot-line) .

Did Chuck Norris Bring Down Communism?

Chuck Norris. YouTube

Lewis Beale, Daily Beast: How Chuck Norris Helped Bring Down Communism

At a time when travel and video players were illegal in Romania, smuggled Chuck Norris tapes gave people a window to the West.

In the 1984 Chuck Norris film Missing In Action, there’s a scene in which Norris, as a former POW who has returned to Vietnam looking for MIAs, is captured and strung upside down by Vietnamese soldiers. One ties a bag over his head with a rat in it. But when the bag is untied, they discover that instead of the rat chewing Norris’ head off, it’s Our Hero who has killed the rat by biting into its neck.

In Soviet-era Romania, they loved scenes like this.

WNU Editor: Growing up I had my share of watching "banned" western movies. And yes .... they did have a huge impact throughout the eastern bloc. People quite often were more focused on the cars, clothes/fashion, homes, and how people interacted than on what the movie was all about.

Update: Speaking of Chuck Norris .... Top 100 Chuck Norris Jokes - Facts

Bob Woodward: Obama's Decision Not To Deploy U.S. Carrier To The Persian Gulf "A Kind Of Madness"

Update: Journalist Bob Woodward blasts Obama "madness" in handling cuts -- Reuters

My Comment: Ouch! Bob Woodward is really taking it to the Obama administration and its handling of sequestration.

WNU Editor: It is now getting very ugly .... BOB WOODWARD: A 'Very Senior' White House Person Warned Me I'd 'Regret' What I'm Doing.

Top Military/Defense/National Security/International News Stories For 2012

Top 10 Security Clearance Stories Of 2012 -- CNN

2012 has been a busy year at Security Clearance. From the U.S. diplomatic facility attack in Benghazi, Libya to the Petraeus sex scandal to the future of Afghanistan and the Pentagon preparing(or not) to fall off the fiscal cliff.

But there have been numerous other stories that have caught your eye this year.

Top 10 Security Clearance stories you, the readers, made the most popular in 2012:

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My Comment: What are my top ten stories .... in no particular order:

1) Sequestration .... it's impact on the U.S. defense budget
2) Civil war in Syria
3) Afghanistan
4) The Petraeus scandal
5) Benghazi consulate attack
6) Euro crisis
7) China's border disputes with it's neighbors
8) The growth of China's military
9) The growth of Al Qaeda and militant Islamic groups in Africa, and the proliferation of wars and internal conflicts in Africa.
10) The expanding U.S. involvement in global/regional conflicts and counter-terrorism operations.

Why America Is NOT The Greatest Country In The World, Anymore.

This Is One Reason Why Eastern Europe Has "Trouble" Working With President Obama

Lech Walesa

President Obama Shuns Lech Walesa -- Rory Cooper, NRO

The Polish Solidarity leader is “too political” for the administration.

Lech Walesa was once a trade-union activist. He was often arrested for speaking his mind against Communist oppression behind the Iron Curtain in Poland and for defying the Soviet Union. He was an electrician who, with no higher education, led one of the most profound freedom movements of the 20th century — Solidarity. He became president of Poland and swept in reforms, pushing the Soviet Union out of his homeland and moving the country toward a free-market economy and individual liberty. And President Obama doesn’t want him to set foot in the White House.

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My Comment: This snub was reported throughout eastern Europe .... and even in Russia .... which is not a fan of Poland (and vice versa). Bottom line .... the political elites in eastern Europe know who President Obama is .... and his treatment of Lech Walesa only reinforces it.

This is one of the reasons why there is a problem in the U.S. - Russian reset. Russian President Putin may not know who President Obama is .... but he knows what he is .... and he has made it very clear that he has no desire or interest to meet President Obama personally .... preferring instead to send Russian PM Medvedev as his stand-in during the G-8 and NATO meetings a few weeks ago. The sentiment in the Kremlin right now is to wait until after the U.S. Presidential elections .... and (if the Russian pundit class is to be believed) their money is on the unknown Mitt Romney who they may disagree with .... but know that they can respect and trust.

A Year In Review From Dave Barry (Humor)

Dave Barry’s 2010 Year In Review -- Dave Barry, Miami Herald

Let's face it -- 2010 was a disaster. A month-by-month reminder of just how awful it was.

Let’s put things into perspective: 2010 was not the worst year ever. There have been MUCH worse years. For example, toward the end of the Cretaceous Period, the Earth was struck by an asteroid that wiped out 75 percent of all the species on the planet. Can we honestly say that we had a worse year than those species did? Yes we can, because they were not exposed to Jersey Shore.

So on second thought we see that this was, in fact, the worst year ever. The perfect symbol for the awfulness of 2010 was the BP oil spill, which oozed up from the depths and spread, totally out of control, like some kind of hideous uncontrollable metaphor.

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My Comment: I have been feeling miserable and under the weather for so long .... but reading this post just puts a smile to my face. We all need a break once in a while, and Dave Barry provides a good break right now.

News Coverage Of Lindsay Lohan And The U.S. Marines

From Theo Spark:

Lindsay Lohan,24, gets her name and face all over the news because she went to jail.

Justin Allen, 23,
Brett Linley, 29,
Matthew Weikert, 29,
Justus Bartett, 27,
Dave Santos, 21,
Chase Stanley, 21,
Jesse Reed, 26,
Matthew Johnson, 21,
Zachary Fisher, 24,
Brandon King, 23,
Christopher Goeke, 23,
and Sheldon Tate, 27,

.... are all Marines who gave their lives for you this week.

Semper Fi.

My Comment: Yup .... Theo Spark puts everything into perspective.

This Puts Everything Into Perspective

From Theo Spark:

Two planes landed in England the other day :

One carried a group of over paid, under achievers who complained that they were tired and missed their families after two weeks in five star accommodations.

The other carried the coffins of 7 fallen soldiers who had spent months away from their loved ones, living in tents in a war zone & giving their lives for their country.

Who are the Hero’s??

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My Comment: How very true.

The Best Allies Money Can Buy -- The Growth Of Private Contractors In War Zones

From Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times:

In 2003, I was on a trip to Iraq and had arranged an appointment in the Green Zone with a member of the then-Iraqi Governing Council. Security was tight. I was with my Iraqi translator, a middle-aged man who had once been a teacher. When we arrived at the council, after a long walk, I showed my ID to two young uniformed U.S. soldiers. They told me to wait, went inside and out came a man wearing civilian clothes, one of those fishing vests and an Australian bush hat.

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My Comment: Are Iraq and Afghanistan our nation's first "contractor wars" ..... with 57% of the work that is needed to be done in Afghanistan being contracted out .... I would have to say YES.

Two Commentaries/Opinions That Will Stand Out In The News Today

Lockerbie Bombing

A Catalogue Of Errors That Shames The UK -- David Cameroon

After the bizarre release of al-Megrahi, the British public have been left disgracefully in the dark.

Twelve days ago, Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi was released by the Scottish government. His freedom came two decades after a bomb, which was smuggled on to Pan Am Flight 103, exploded over Lockerbie, killing 11 people on the ground and 259 people on the plane. The only man convicted of the crime, al-Megrahi spent just eight years in prison — less than a fortnight for each victim — and was welcomed back to Tripoli as a returning hero.

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Time to Get Out of Afghanistan -- George Will

"Yesterday," reads the e-mail from Allen, a Marine in Afghanistan, "I gave blood because a Marine, while out on patrol, stepped on a [mine's] pressure plate and lost both legs." Then "another Marine with a bullet wound to the head was brought in. Both Marines died this morning."

"I'm sorry about the drama," writes Allen, an enthusiastic infantryman willing to die "so that each of you may grow old." He says: "I put everything in God's hands." And: "Semper Fi!"

Allen and others of America's finest are also in Washington's hands. This city should keep faith with them by rapidly reversing the trajectory of America's involvement in Afghanistan, where, says the Dutch commander of coalition forces in a southern province, walking through the region is "like walking through the Old Testament."

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My Comment: I usually browse through 20 - 30 commentaries and editorials everyday (exception is Sunday). Many I agree with .... many of disagree with. This morning, I came across two commentaries in which the authors took a considerable amount of time and passion to write. They are stating exactly what this blog has been saying for a long time .... but written much better than what I am capable of.

David Cameroon will be the next PM of Britain .... and he writes like one. George Will has always been respected within the conservative intelligentsia .... his commentary is contrary to their accepted dogma on what should be done in Afghanistan. It will have an impact to make them realize that Afghanistan is a lost cause, and hence lay the groundwork for the political right to accept a withdrawal from that wretched country.

Two short and well written pieces .... they are must reads today.

How To Defeat Insurgencies: Sri Lanka's Bad Example

A body identified as that of the Tamil rebels’ leader, Vellupillai Prabhakaran, was carried Tuesday through Sri Lankan troops. Reuters

From Time Magazine:

The conflict in Sri Lanka has long provided lessons for militant groups around the world. The Tamil Tigers taught terrorists everywhere the finer (or more savage) points of suicide bombing, the recruitment of child soldiers, arms trafficking, propaganda and the use of a global diaspora to collect resources. The Tigers "were the pioneers in many of the terrorist tactics we see worldwide today," says Jason Campbell, an Iraq and Afghanistan analyst at the Brookings Institution.

But now that the Tigers have been defeated, governments and security forces around the world may try to learn from the success of the Sri Lanka government. President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his army have turned the conventional wisdom on fighting insurgencies on its head, adopting strategies and tactics long discredited, both in the battlefield and in the military classroom. Since they appear to have worked against the Tigers, other countries wracked by insurgencies — from Pakistan to Sudan to Algeria — may be tempted to follow suit.

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My Comment: In the end .... the eventual winner of this Sri Lankan civil war was never in doubt. The Sinhalese make up 80% of the population, they have the resources, the military, the international recognition, and the infrastructure to pursue a long drawn out conflict. What they lacked was the will .... a lack of will that quickly changed when President Mahinda Rajapaksa and "his army" took over the government and the military.

The error resides in the leadership of the Tigers. They thought that they were going to win, and it is with this mindset that they prosecuted the war. What they should have done (with hindsight) is that when they had attained military dominance in 2005 .... they should have sued for peace and form some type of accommodation with the Sri Lankan Government. They did not .... thereby setting in motion the sequence of events that led to the death and capture of the Tiger leadership.

Can the Tigers reconstitute themselves into a fighting force? I am sure that many will try .... but it will never attain the same status and power that it had 5 years ago. A lesson that many past insurgencies and civil wars have clearly taught us.

In conclusion .... while the Tigers may have taught many on how insurgencies should be fought .... their defeat should also be a warning to all insurgencies that if their political cards are not played right to attain their goals .... their defeat and destruction can then become their ever lasting legacy.

Opinions, Commentaries, And Editorials -- February 8, 2009

POWER SHIFT The war ended dictatorship in Iraq, which recently held elections. But it also left a regional vacuum. Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

An Opening to Iran? -- Middle East Forum
Iran: Still Haunted by Bloody Past -- Robert Fisk, The Independent
Iran Looks Hostile -- Daily Telegraph editorial
Why the Muslim World Can’t Hear Obama -- New York Times opinion
Iraq's Mandate for Stability -- Rocky Mountain News
Deja vu in Kabul -- Max Boot, Los Angeles Times opinion
A Russia Reality Check -- Fred Hiatt, Washington Post
Israel Is Not a Banana Republic -- Yoram Ettinger, Ynet News
Croatia: The Balkan Basket Case -- Jeffery Kuhner, Washington Times
Avoiding Disaster in Afghanistan -- Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune
What Japan Got Right -- Edward Lincoln, Newsweek
Cheney's Blind Spot -- Washington Post editorial
Would Panetta Object to Aggressive Interrogation? -- Wall Street Journal editorial
Torture on Trial? -- Los Angeles Times editorial
Speaking With the Enemy -- New York Times opinion
Defense Spending: An Indefensible Omission -- Washington Post opinion
Foreign Spies Are Serious. Are We? -- Washington Post opinion
US,Mexico Border: The Twilight Zone -- Washington Post opinion
U.S.-Mexico Border is Under Siege -- Tom Miller, Washington Post
Our Brave New World -- Victor Davis Hanson, Pajamas Media

Commentaries, Opinions, And Editorials For January 26, 2009

RUSSIA

Russia's Hard Bargain -- M K Bhadrakumar, Asia Times
Six Months Later, A Different Georgia -- Jonathan Steele, The Guardian
Russia: America's Favorite Bogeyman -- Nina Khrushcheva, Moscow Times
Human Rights Murders in Russia -- Dmitry Sidorov, Forbes
How to Improve U.S.-Russia Ties -- Alexandra Vacroux , CS Monitor

CHINA

The Chinese Model Has Failed -- John Lee, The Australian
Calling China's Bluff -- Gregory Chin & Eric Helleiner, Foreign Policy
Year of Ox Looks Ominous for Chinese -- John Lee, The Times
Geithner Wrong on China Trade -- Bret Swanson, Wall Street Journal
China's Obama Censorship -- James Fallows, The Atlantic
Sino-US War of Words over Economics -- The Economist

PRESIDENT OBAMA AND AFGHANISTAN

Obama's Afghan Trap -- Nikolas Gvosdev, National Interest
Obama's Afghan Challenge -- Washington Times
Afghanistan: Obama's Vietnam? -- Jeffrey Kuhner, Washington Times

GENERAL

Torture Weakened America's National Security -- Sen. John Kerry, CNN
Moderating the War on Terror -- Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune
Do We Really Want Detainees on American Soil? -- Andrew Levy, Forbes
Will Pakistan & Afghanistan Be Obama's Vietnam? -- Juan Cole, Salon
Drug Gangs Have Mexico on the Ropes -- Wall Street Journal
Iran's Nuclear Adventurism -- Times of London editorial
Hey Obama, What About North Korea? -- Donald Kirk, Asia Times
Warning from the Saudis -- Financial Times Editorial

Russian Analyst: 'The US Will Break Up Into 6 Parts' -- A Commentary

From American Thinker:

To lighten the doom and gloom we've all been reading these past few weeks, here's some unintended comedy from "one of the leading" Russian political analysts.

Professor Igor Panarin is not only predicting a collapse of the US economy but a break up of the United States into 6 parts. He predicts a catastrophe:

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

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Of Course You Realize, This Means War -- A Commentary

From The wall Street Journal:

Terrorists to President-elect Obama: The honeymoon's over.

Ah, for the lost innocence of . . . well, of three days ago, when David Ingatius of the Washington Post penned these words:

Let's try for a moment to read the mind of an al-Qaeda operative in the remote mountains of Waziristan as he listens to the news on the radio. His worldview has been roiled recently by two events--one confounding his image of the West and the other confirming it.

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Who'll Cause Obama's First 3 a.m. Call? -- A Commentary

From Real Clear World:

"Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking."

This ominous warning was not issued by President-elect Obama's campaign adversary John McCain or any of his surrogates. It came from Joe Biden, Obama's running mate and the nation's next vice president - merely two weeks before Obama's election victory

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Bush Leaves Office With Bin Laden And al-Qaeda Severely Wounded -- A Commentary

From Strata-Sphere:

The democrats are lucky. All they need to do is make sure they continue to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan and help Pakistan clear out the last remaining Islamo Fascists hold up in their northern tribal regions - then plan the victory parades. They will arrogantly claim they ended the Iraq war (hopefully in victory if they can show some self restraint), and be the laughing stock of people who know who stayed the course to victory.

Bin Laden was the future of Islam after 9-11. It was assumed to be de facto reality that the Muslim world would rally behind him and al-Qaeda and start a global military conflict against The West and America using a stealth fighting force of terrorists. If things went well for Bin Laden, those stealth terrorists would be armed with a variety of Weapons of Mass Destruction.

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