Showing posts with label u.s. elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label u.s. elections. Show all posts

Saturday, November 12, 2022

Democrats Keep Control Of The US Senate

 

 Daily Mail: Democrats keep control of Senate after Catherine Cortez Masto holds off Adam Laxalt to win tight race in Nevada with one seat still up for grabs in Georgia 

* The AP called Nevada race for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto on Saturday evening 

* It gives Democrats 50 seats in the Senate and means they retain control 

* Cortez Masto fought off the challenge of Trump-endorsed Adam Laxalt 

* Laxalt played a key role in trying to overturn Trump's 2020 defeat in the state 

* Chuck Schumer said voters had rejected 'extremist MAGA Republicans' 

Democrats will keep control of the Senate after multiple news organizations forecast on Saturday night that Catherine Cortez Masto would hold on to her seat.

It means Democrats have won 50 seats, enough to hold the majority with Vice President Kamala Harris's casting vote - and with one race still undecided in Georgia. 

Cortez Masto beat Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. 

 Read more ....  

WNU Editor: In a normal situation someone like U.S. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell will lose his job because of these poor election results. But we do not live in normal times. 

It looks like the Republicans are going to control the House of Representatives, albeit with a razor thin majority. 

Democrats Keep Control Of The US Senate  

Democrats keep Senate majority as GOP push falters in Nevada -- AP  

Democrats seal control of U.S. Senate with win in Nevada -- Reuters  

Cortez Masto wins in Nevada, securing Democratic control of Senate -- The Hill  

Democrats keep the Senate -- Politico  

Democrats will keep control of Senate, bucking historical trend -- The Hill

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Tweets On The U.S. Midterm Elections

What Does The Mid-Term Election Results Mean For The Future Of President Biden?

President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama attend a campaign for Democratic senatorial candidate John Fetterman and Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Picture: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters 

WNU editor: President Biden and the White House should be happy. Correction. They should be overjoyed!

All the expectations of a red wave fell flat.

Keeping control of the US Senate will mean his court and executive office appointees will still be approved.

There is an outside chance that the Democrats may still keep control of the House of Representatives. But even if they do lose the House, the Republican majority will be so small, maybe by a seat or two, that blocking the President's agenda will be challenge for the Republican leadership. 

Within the Democrat party itself, the push to convince President Biden to not run in the 2024 Presidential race is going to fall silent. 

President Biden, at least publicly, has stated that he will run in 2024. Unless there is a change in his physical health by then, he and Kamala Harris will be on the ticket for 2024. 

And as to questions on President Biden's mental capacity to run in 2024. As John Fetterman's Senate victory in Pennsylvania has shown. Being mentally impaired after suffering a stroke and facing years of rehabilitation was not an obstacle for him to run for office and to win convincingly. 

So what do I expect from the White House in the next two years?

I expect the White House, with help from the media, to say that this election cycle validated President Biden's policies, and he has mandate to continue on. 

Policy wise the White House and the Democrats in Congress are going to double down on their domestic agenda and policies. Ditto on foreign policy.

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

U.S. Midterm Elections Update - Republicans On The Verge Of Taking The House. US Senate Still Too Close To Call

WNU Editor: There is no red tsunami. The predictions were wrong. 

The Republicans have lost two Governor-ships. Massachusetts and Maryland. It also looks like Kari Lake will not win the Governorship in Arizona as many Republicans were hoping. 

In regards to the US Senate. Georgia is headed to a run-off election. Pennsylvania is trending towards Democrat John Fetterman, but there are still a lot of votes to count outside the big cities. If all other trends continue, Georgia may decide who will be the majority party in the US Senate. 

I am also looking at the Senate race in Alaska. Because of how the vote is decided, the Democrats may actually win the state. 

The Republicans will win the House of Representatives. They have already flipped 5 seats, and leading in a number of others. This is the big story of the day.

Bottom line. I expect gridlock in Washington. The key is the US Senate. If Republicans win 51 seats, President Biden's appointees are not going to be easily approved.

U.S. Midterm Elections Update - Republicans Poised To Take The House. US Senate Too Close To Call

WNU Editor: I know it is too early to predict who will control Congress, but Republicans are flipping the seats that they need to flip to be the majority in the House. 

The US Senate is another story. The Democrats are doing better than expected in Ohio and North Carolina. And as for Georgia, it is going to be very close, but the signs are that there will be a run-off election because no one got over the 50% threshold. 

Florida is now a solid red state. 

 It is still too early to predict the final results, but I do not see a red tsunami that many were predicting in the past week. 

 I will be doing another more thorough update at 23:00 EST.

Live U.S. Election Results 2022

 

WNU Editor: Reuters is live posting the Senate results of the US midterms (see video above) 

 Live U.S. Election Results 2022

 U.S. election results 2022 -- Reuters

Live US Senate Results -- Politico  

Live U.S. House of Congress Results -- Politico  

The Hill’s Election Central: Live results from Senate, House & Governor races -- The Hill  

US midterm election results 2022: live -- The Guardian  

The 2022 Midterm Elections: Live Results Map -- The New Yorker

2022 U.S. Midterms Live Updates

Michigan voters cast their ballots at Louis Pasteur Elementary School on midterm election day in Detroit, Michigan, November 8, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

2022 U.S. Midterms Live Updates 

2022 midterms live updates: Latest election news from AP -- AP 

Live Coverage: 2022 Midterm Elections -- The Hill 

Live Updates: Midterm elections 2022 are underway as voters head to polls, control of Congress is on the ballot -- FOX News 

Live Updates: It's Election Night in America -- CNN  

Election 2022 live updates: Watchdog groups report routine problems; stocks rally on GOP expectations -- USA Today  

Live Updates: Midterm elections underway as millions head to the polls -- CBS News 

Live: Inflation and abortion top issues as US voting enters final hours -- BBC  

Midterm elections 2022: US voters head to polls as Republicans fight to take Senate control – live -- The Guardian 

 Live: Voting under way in US midterms to determine control of Congress -- France 24  

Midterm election: Voting enters final stretch — LIVE -- DW 

Live updates — Midterm elections: Inflation and abortion are voters’ top concerns, NBC exit poll finds -- CNBC  

Live Updates: MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2022: Follow DailyMail.com's coverage on a tense night of elections - as voters line up to cast their vote in the final hours before the polls close -- Daily Mail  

Live updates: Voters head to the polls for the US midterm elections with the balance of the House and Senate at stake -- Insider

US midterms live updates: Americans turn out to cast ballots as Democrats and Republicans vie for control of Congress -- ABC News Australia

Tweets On The U.S. Mid-Term Elections

Monday, November 7, 2022

Americans Go To The Polls Tomorrow

A final midterms poll projection shows Republicans with a grip on the majority in the House and picking up three seats in the Senate, with less than 24 hours until millions of Americans head to the polls

Thirty-four races for Congress are still considered toss-ups but it is becoming clear that Republicans have the momentum, despite the Democrats making a small comeback in the closing stages  

Daily Mail: Red wave in the House! Final midterms forecast shows GOP will take THREE Senate seats and take House majority by winning at least 15 seats -with record FORTY MILLION early votes already cast 

* Real Clear Politics has issued its final projection of poll averages before Tuesday

* Prediction says Republicans will pick up three Senate and 227 House seats 

* Thirty-four races for Congress are still considered toss-ups 

* Polls in four Senate races show the candidates separated by just one point 

* Dr. Oz is leading John Fetterman by just 0.1 points in Pennsylvania's Senate race 

* GOP flipping seats in New York and Virginia could spell trouble for Democrats 

* More than 40 million people have voted early, more than the 39 million in 2018 

A final midterms poll projection shows Republicans with a grip on the House majority and picking up three seats in the Senate, with less than 24 hours until millions of Americans start heading to the polls. 

In their last prediction based on poll averages, Real Clear Politics has the GOP with 53 Senate seats when the votes are counted and picking up at least 15 in the House races to take their total to 227, with the Democrats winning 174.  

Read more ....  

Update: Dems, GOP make urgent final pitches as election season wraps (AP)  

WNU Editor: My prediction. The Republicans are going to win control of the House of Representatives and the US Senate. The question that remains to be answered is .... how big will their margin be?

In a normal election cycle the Democrats would be toast. A loss of 4 or more Senators, and 45 or more House seats is what would be expected. Inflation/high energy prices/higher interest rates/the cost of living/crime/open borders/imposing a "woke" culture .... these issues would always destroy the party in power.

But we are not in normal times. Democrat support is still strong, and I expect many of them are going to vote for their party tomorrow. 

The key are the independent voters. The ones I know are motivated to vote tomorrow, and they are going to hold their noses when voting Republican. 

 I expect 40+ Republican gains in the House, and 4 US Senate seats. 

What are your predictions? And will anything change if the Republicans are the big winners tomorrow?

Will Soaring Energy Prices Harm The Democrats In Tomorrow's Midterm Elections?

Bloomberg: Sky-High Electricity Is Biden’s New Pain Point Before Elections 

(Bloomberg) -- For months now, high gasoline prices have been arguably the most visible political pain point for President Joe Biden.In most towns, they can be seen every few blocks on signs at filling stations. It’s the fundamental commodity Americans need to go to work, buy groceries and get around. 

But in the runup to the US midterm elections, another energy cost is coming into focus: skyrocketing electricity bills.

It’s a topic that led off a recent gubernatorial debate in California, home to some of the nation’s priciest power. In Maine, politicians have clashed over whether renewable energy is making electricity more expensive. In New York, the Republican candidate for governor is urging the state to reverse its ban on natural gas drilling to lower utility bills.  

Read more ....  

Update #1: "People Are Fed Up": Soaring Electricity Bills Become New Pain Point For Biden (Zero Hedge)  

Update #2: High energy prices dog Democrats heading into midterms (Houston Chronicle)  

WNU Editor: I am willing to bet that soaring home heating oil prices (primarily in the US northeast), rising gasoline prices (basically everywhere), and rising electricity prices (also basically everywhere) will motivate a lot of voters to the polls to punish the Democrats. When your pocket book is being directly impacted as many are now facing with high energy prices, you are not a happy person. 

And the Americans are not alone. I know in my case where I live (Montreal) my home heating bill (I heat with oil) will, if current prices do not change, rise from $5000/year Canadian to a minimum of $12,000 Canadian this year. And I am pissed!!! But I should not complain. Diesel is now $3.07/liter Canadian in the Maritimes, or about $9/gallon US!!!!! (link here)

Sunday, October 30, 2022

A Republican Landslide In The Midterms Next Week?

CBS News: Republicans head into final week with lead in seats, voters feel things are "out of control" — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll 

The election is already underway; millions have voted, and tens of millions more will before Nov. 8. Amid that, eight in 10 likely voters describe things in the country today as "out of control," as opposed to "under control." 

That doesn't bode well for the party in power: Republicans are winning those who say "out of control" right now by more than 20 points, though they're often the ones feeling that way to begin with. So where do things stand?  

Read more ....  

Update #1: The US Senate races appear to be close .... Its a dead heat for the US Senate (FiveThirtyEight).  

Update #2: It looks like some Governor-ships are flipping Republican .... Governor’s Races Enter Final Sprint on a Scrambled, Surprising Map (New York Times).  

WNU Editor: The CBS/YouGov poll does not say how much of their sample size is Democrat/Republican/Independent. 

FiveThirtyEight says it is a dead heat, but when you look at their map projections it looks like the Republicans are going to pick up a minimum of two seats. 

The New York Times assessment on the governor-ships is blunt. A number of Republican pick-ups.

Bottom line. It is going to be a good night if you are a Republican. 

Friday, October 28, 2022

Is Republican Support Rising Before The U.S. Midterm Elections?

USA Today: Exclusive poll: Republican support rises ahead of Election Day, with inflation driving voters  

After SCOTUS reversed Roe v. Wade, some Democrats thought the issue would disrupt typical midterm factors like views of the economy. But the new poll shows many voters going back to basics. 

 * Voters overwhelmingly view the election as a way to send a message to the White House. 

 *  Biden's upbeat reassurances on the economy aren't breaking through with voters. 

 * Asked whether inflation or abortion mattered more to them, respondents chose inflation by 56%-40%. 

Republicans are resurgent as the midterm campaign heads into its final stretch, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, amid angst about President Joe Biden's leadership and the nation's economy. 

As Americans feel the bite of inflation in their daily lives, from eating out less often to canceling vacations, voters overwhelmingly view the election as a way to send a message to the White House – and by double digits, that message is to change course.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I tell my Republican friends to not get cocky. President Trump was polling similar numbers in 2020 ..... 40% of Hispanics and 21% of Blacks backing Republican candidates .... but the polls were wrong and he lost the election that also ended with the Democrats winning the House and Senate.

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Is This How U.S. Elections Will Be Run?

J. Christian Adams, Gatestone Institute: If You Thought the 2020 Elections Were Chaotic, Just Wait 

 * H.R.1 packs into one 791-page bill every bad idea about how to run elections and mandates that the states must adopt the very things that made the election of 2020 such a mess. It includes all of the greatest hits of 2020: Mandatory mail ballots, ballots without postmarks, late ballots, voting in precincts where you do not live.... The Senate companion bill, S.1, might be even worse. 

 * In 2020, states such as Nevada and New Jersey sent ballots through the mail to anyone on their registration lists despite having voter rolls full of errors. The Public Interest Legal Foundation documented thousands of ineligible registrations in Nevada alone that received mail ballots. Some were sent to vacant lots, abandoned mines, casinos and even liquor stores. 

 * States also would be blocked by H.R.1 from signature verification procedures. * H.R.1 rigs the system for any lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the law. All lawsuits can only be filed in one court -- federal court in the District of Columbia. And all opposition must be consolidated into one brief with only one attorney being able to argue the merits. * There is a federal mandate, passed in the 19th Century, to have one single election day.... Like Obamacare earlier, H.R.1 transitions our federalist Republic to some other brave new system that purports to right generations of structural wrongs, while at the same time entrenching other wrongs. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: My prediction. With Democrats in control of the US government, their election bill will be passed and made into law, and US elections will be forever a mess.

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Results From Georgia US Senate Runoff Elections (Live)

 

WNU Editor: Live results can also be tracked here .... CNN, ABC News, and NBC News

What is my take on this US senate election (22:00 EST). The counties that lean Republican have already posted their results. What is left are primarily Democrat counties and the counting of their mail-in votes. Currently there is a small lead for both Republican senators, but there is still more than 20% of the vote that needs to be counted. IMHO .... using the results of the last election, the Democrats are currently well poised to win one of these Senate seats. And .... there is a chance to win both seats and effective control of the US government..

Update 22:15 EST: Both Republicans have increased their leads with 83% of the votes counted. But the remaining votes that need to be counted are in Democrat counties.

Update 22:50 EST: The Republicans are still maintaining their lead with 91% of the vote counted. But apparently there are still a lot of mail-in ballots that need to be counted.

Update 23:40 EST: With 97% of the polls counted, the Democrat's are on the verge of winning both Senate seats (see below).
Update 23:50 EST: It looks like the Democrats are going to be in full control of the government. Here is another easy prediction. The financial markets are going to be very volatile in the coming weeks/months.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

A Republican Explains Why The Democrats Are Well Positioned To Win Two U.S. Senate Seats In Georgia This January, And Control Of The U.S. Senate In 2021

Matt Towery, Real Clear Politics: A Realistic Primer on Georgia’s Senate Runoffs 

In the classic movie “The Godfather,” Michael Corleone travels to a small restaurant in the Bronx to meet with a rival Mafia boss. At the table the boss tells a corrupt policeman who is there to serve as a third-party witness that he is going to “speak to Michael in Italian.” In the movie they switch languages to keep the policeman in the dark. 

So I’m going to speak “Georgian,” not to keep anyone out, but to hopefully add context to two situations that the media has been conflating. 

First the recount. Despite assertions by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and in the local media, the effort has been disingenuous. There was a failure to properly authenticate ballots. Finding thousands of uncounted ballots in the process doesn’t help create confidence in what Georgia officials claim to be a smooth process. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: US stock markets, investors and bankers, corporations large and small, pundits and the media .... everyone is expecting a Republican senate sweep in Georgia's run-off election in January thereby guaranteeing Republican control of the US senate, divided government, and a stop to Democrat progressives and their agenda. 

But what happens if everyone is wrong? 

What happens if the Democrats do win these two Senate seats and thereby control of the Senate? 

Matt Towery just made the case in the above post on why this may happen. And yes .... it will be due to mail-in ballots.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

U.S. Congress 2020 Elections Results

Washington Examiner: Republicans won all 27 House races listed as 'toss-ups' — and then some

Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of the 36 seats the outlet rated as “likely Democrat" or "lean Democrat.” 

“The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my information ratings of the five outstanding races following today’s developments,” Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman said on Twitter. “#CA21 - Likely R, #CA25 - Lean R, #IA02 - Lean R (recount), #NJ07 - Likely D, #NY22 - Toss Up.” 


WNU Editor: The final outcome will most likely be 222 Democrats vs 213 Republicans. For latest results go here .... Reuters Election Results

So much for all the predictions before the election of a blue wave/tsunami. This is not even a blue beach-head.

Friday, November 13, 2020

Republicans Are Expecting Big Wins In The 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections

Washington Examiner: 2020 results set Republicans up for success in 2022 and beyond 

 Despite the presidential race being called for Democrat Joe Biden, November’s elections set up Republicans well for 2022 and beyond. President Trump remained competitive enough in the battleground states to help down-ballot Republicans across the finish line.

In other cases, Republicans such as Sen. Susan Collins of Maine were able to run well ahead of Trump to defy pollsters and hold onto their seats. 

"Republicans might not be happy over the presidential election, but we are poised to take back the House and are likely going to do very well with redistricting,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean.

“Additionally, the party was able to attract a sizable amount of Hispanic and Latino voters as well."  

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: A lot can happen in 2 years. The pandemic should be over by then, and the focus will probably be on the economic recovery. If the economy is booming, Democrats may well be positioned to win a few seats. The US Senate will also be a tough year for Republicans. 20 Republican seats are up for election vs. 13 for the Democrats (see here). The Pennsylvania seat held by Republican Senator Pat Toomey is at risk .... he is also retiring.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Republicans Win In Contested U.S. State Legislatures

Time: Republicans Log Wins in State Legislatures. Democrats in Congress Should Worry 

Think the current map of congressional districts is ridiculously gerrymandered in a way that gives Republicans unfair favor? Brace yourselves. It’s about to get worse. 

 A week after voting ended in the presidential race that is sending Joe Biden back to the White House, a look down-ballot shows Democrats did fairly poorly. At best, Democrats claw their way to a tie in the Senate, assuming voters in Georgia give run-off wins to both Democrats campaigning hard there and deep-pocketed Republicans don’t block that. The House’s Democratic majority narrowed, prompting internal recriminations about polling, messaging and blame. Republicans picked up another governor’s office in Montana on a national map that’s already awash in red. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: Again .... so much for talk of a Blue-Wave. What all of this means is that Democrat hopes of changing the boundaries for some congressional districts is not going to happen. 

Democrats also need to worry on what is going to happen in 2022. 

A large number of Democrat state governors and Democrat controlled legislatures are up for re-election in two years. If a Biden administration fails in improving the economy by then, some of them are definitely going to be vulnerable for defeat. But if the economy does improve, the reverse may happen.

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Joe Biden Commits To 3 Debates, But President Trump Campaign's Wants 1 More


CBS: Biden says he'll participate in three debates with Trump

Joe Biden is planning to participate in three previously-scheduled debates with President Trump — and not one more, his campaign said Monday.

The Biden campaign is also calling on the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates to explain how it plans to hold the in-person debates scheduled for September and October, despite the coronavirus pandemic.

"There is no reason why Vice President Biden and President Trump cannot meet for debates with appropriate safety and social distancing measures (set by public health authorities) on the three dates the CPD has identified. Nothing should prevent the conduct of debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on these dates; again, we do not want to provide President Trump with any excuses for not debating," the Biden campaign wrote in a letter to the commission on Monday.

Read more ....

Update #1: Joe Biden Commits to 3 Debates, but Trump Campaign Wants 1 More (Time/AP)
Update #2: Biden campaign commits to 3 debates with Trump, claims president is shifting his stance on debate participation as ‘distraction’ (ABC News)

WNU Editor: The Trump campaign is reminding me of the cockiness of the Paul Ryan team before the 2012 Vice-Presidential debate. Everyone assumed that Paul Ryan would dominate and win the debate. That did not happen .... Biden goes after Ryan in VP debate (Politico). As debates go, that debate was one of the most one-sided debates that I have ever seen. And while it is true that former Vice-President is not the man 18 years ago, and he is exhibiting all of the signs of dementia. Do not underestimate Biden's capability or people like him who are suffering from memory problems. I noticed a few years back that my own mother was exhibiting signs of dementia. But everyone who talked to her said that she was fine and there were no signs of anything wrong. Even my own brother said that. But when my brother stayed over with his kids for a few weeks and had to deal with our mom on a regular basis, he noticed there was a problem. I expect Biden will be well prepared for his debate, and he will be acting by instinct. I also expect that he will be receiving medication that will keep him alert and focused. My prediction is that he will give a good performance that will placate those who are concerned that he is not well. But he is not well, and that is going to be a major problem for his family as time goes on, and for the country (and the world) if he is elected President.

Monday, June 15, 2020

A Trump Landslide This November?

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S. March 2, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo/File Photo

Politico: ‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection

Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated.

But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is hardening around a fundamentally different view.

Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The polls are predicting a disaster for President Trump .... Biden ahead by 14% among registered voters; Trump approval below 40% (Abacus Data). I think it is too early to predict what will be happening in November based on today's polls. Events are changing the political environment almost daily, and no one knows what will be the top news story next week let alone months from now. But there are certain things that I am watching. The first is who will be Biden's running mate. I do not think Biden will be healthy enough to finish his Presidential term. He is already having problems now, and it is sad to say that when you look at how he was 10, 15, 20 years ago to who he is today, he is just a shadow of what he use to be. That is why his running mate will be important. Because if she and Biden do win, she will be the next President before 2024. I am also watching how the pandemic is behaving. If we have a serious second wave in the coming months it will be a disaster for the economy, and many will blame President Trump.