Will War Return To Lebanon?

From Beirut To The Beltway:

In one of his most aggressive speeches since the civil war, Walid Jumblatt said March 14 will go to war against Hizbullah if that’s what the militia wants. “Our existence, dignity and Lebanon are more important than anything else. You want disorder, so be it.”, he said, addressing Hizbullah and the forces he said are trying to bring back Syrian hegemony. ”You want war, so be it. We have no problem with weapons, no problem with missiles. We will take your ready-to-use missiles. We have no problem with martyrdom and suicide.”

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From The Middle East Journal:

Just a few nights ago I said to some out of town friends that I thought another war, between Hezbollah and whichever adversary first decides to pick up the sword, is all but inevitable in Lebanon. I wish it weren't so, but it probably is. If the Israelis don't do it, someone in Lebanon will unless the Syrian and Iranian regimes are first brought to heel.

Right on schedule, Druze chief Walid Jumblatt throws down the gauntlet.
Abu Kais has the story, from articles he translated from Arabic:

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My Comment: Hizbullah has rearmed itself, and with internal problems growing in the countries of their sponsors (Syria and Iran) another war can only help to divert attention from their own problems.

So .... will there be another war?

All sides have rearmed, political disputes have not been solved, political leaders murdered, and resentment and bitterness are now open for all to see. I do not know if a war will break out, but all sides are clearly positioning themselves for war.

Nuclear Watchdog Warns Of 'Disarray' -- Biggest Threat Is Extremist Groups, Not Iran, He Says

From The San Francisco Chronicle:

The United Nations' chief nuclear watchdog provided a singularly bleak vision of a world "in disarray" Saturday, warning that the most imminent threat is not a new nation joining the nuclear club but deadly material falling into the hands of extremists.

The specter of nuclear terrorism is not a new theme for International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who has been managing the crisis over Iran's nuclear program for the past six years, but his language was particularly gloomy at a conference of international leaders on security in Munich.

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More News from Threatswatch: "Revelation" – Dirty Bomb Vulnerability

My Comment: Unfortunately, a number of terrorist organizations have direct ties to governments and their officials. If a country decides to produce nuclear material, and that nuclear material is found after an explosion in a city like New York .... well .... accountability has to stop somewhere. To blame terrorists is one thing ..... but if one cannot keep the nuclear material that one is willing to produce under lock and key .... if that material is used then the blame will rest at the producers door.

Nuclear bombs do not kill people .... it is the people who produce and use them that do.

UN: 12,000 Flee Darfur For Chad

From The San Francisco Chronicle:

Up to 12,000 refugees fled Sudan's Darfur region to neighboring Chad over the weekend following air strikes by the Sudanese military and thousands more may be coming, the U.N. refugee agency said Sunday.

The agency was bringing emergency assistance to the Chad border where the Darfur refugees were giving detailed descriptions of air attacks Friday on three West Darfur towns.

The refugees are "destitute and terrified," said Helene Caux, spokeswoman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees headquartered in Geneva. "They told of their villages being looted and burned, and encircled by militia." Most of the new refugees in Chad are men and they told the U.N. that thousands of women and children are on their way, Caux added.

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My Comment: This has been going on for a number of years .... and unbelievable as this is, it is going to get worse.

Afghanistan War News Updates -- February 11, 2008

Gates: NATO Survival At Stake In Afghanistan -- MSNBC

Gates Is Right About NATO's Counterinsurgency Deficiencies -- Threatswatch

US Warns Failure In Afghanistan Is A Threat To Europe -- Yahoo News

US Warning On Nato's Afghan Role -- BBC News

Norway Closes Embassy In Afghan Capital -- MSNBC

The $9 Billion Spring Offensive -- Aby Muqawama

McCain Wants More EU Troops For Afghanistan -- Telegraph

All-Clear For Afghan Combat Video Diaries -- The Guardian

Good Books: Afghan Campaign, Rifleman Dodd -- Kings Of War

My Comment: Now entering the seventh year, most NATO members are now beginning to realize that this is a long term commitment that will need NATO participation (both combat and reconstruction) for the next 10 to 20 years (minimum).

This realization is now beginning to give many members cold feet. Like Iraq, an evaluation is now needed on what needs to be done to take the upper hand again.

This winter has been a bitter and cold one in much of Afghanistan. Fighting has all but the disappeared, with many Taliban staying at home or in Pakistan. How the west will respond when the snow melts in the next two months will dictate how long we will be staying in that country.

Iraq War News Updates -- February 10, 2008

More Than 50 Killed In Iraq -- Yahoo News

Series Of Iraq Attacks Mark Bloody Sunday -- CBS News

More Than 50 Killed In Iraq -- Newsweek

Car Bomb In Balad Kills 23, U.S. Military Says -- MSNBC

The Diary Of An Insurgent In Retreat -- MSNBC

Diary Of Defeat -- Commentary From Tigerhawk

Insurgent Diaries ... And The IO Campaign -- Abu Muqawama

al-Qaeda On Last Legs In Iraq According To AQ Documents -- Strata-Sphere

Al Qaeda In Iraq Under Pressure In Balad, Anbar -- Long War journal

Gates: Iraqis Showing Signs of Progress -- U.S. News And World Report

The Link Between Security and Identity in Iraq -- Threatswatch

Look What Made The News -- Iraq Pundit

Murder or Exhaustion in Iraq? -- Time Magazine

U.S. Army Buried Study Faulting Iraq Planning -- International Herald Tribune

US Military Deaths In Iraq At 3,959 -- Yahoo News

My Comment: Sunday, February 10, 2008 was a bloody day in Iraq. Over 50 killed, many wounded. While the direction for this scale of violence is downward, it will still happen. The next few months will prove critical for Iraqi reconcialition and compromise.

Trouble spots will be in the north with the Kurds demanding more autonomy .... and Turkish concerns over this development, Shiite and Sunni animosity, Al Qaeda and its few remaining units, and political obstruction and intolerance for compromise on the federal level.

The direction of the U.S. Presidential election is also important. Any scrap of hope for a quick American departure can only embolden groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq, Bathists, and foreign elements.

News On Kenya -- February 10, 2008

A Political Compromise in Kenya? -- Time Magazine

As Violence Escalates, Kenyans Turn Vigilante -- MSNBC

Kenya Lifts Ban On Public Rallies -- MSNC

Found: The Boy Caught In Kenya's Bloody Hell -- The Guardian

Sun, Sea And Miles Of Empty Beach: The Paradise That Faces Disaster -- The Guadian

Kosovo Independence Seen Likely For Feb. 17 -- Will Another Civil War Be The Result?

From The Washington Times:

BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — The Serbian minister for Kosovo said yesterday that his government has learned the province's ethnic Albanian leadership will declare independence on Feb. 17. Western diplomats said they expected the move a day later.

Slobodan Samardzic said Serbia's government has received "relevant information" that Kosovo's government will "illegally declare unilateral independence of Kosovo on Sunday, Feb. 17." He did not specify the source of information and Belgrade remains fiercely opposed to the loss of the province.

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More From The Guardian: Serbs warn of Kosovo clash

My Comment: Past decisions in the former country of Yugoslavia in calling for unilateral independence have led to strife, violent conflict, ethnic cleansing, and all out war. It looks like the groundwork for another stage in the Yugoslav civil war is being laid down without any appreciation of the consequences.

Poll: Bin Laden Popularity Fading In Pakistan

From MSNBC:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Sympathy for al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden and the Taliban has dropped sharply in Pakistan amid a wave of deadly violence, according to the results of a recent opinion poll.

The survey, conducted last month for the U.S.-based Terror Free Tomorrow organization, also identified the party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto as the country's most popular ahead of Feb. 18 elections, and said most Pakistanis want President Pervez Musharraf to quit.

The poll suggests Pakistanis are looking to peaceful opposition groups after months of political turmoil and a wave of suicide attacks.

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My Comment: Even though Bin Ladin's and Al Qaeda's popularity have gone down, a significant minority still support them. In the frontier regions .... where such polls can never be done .... my gut tells me that his popularity is still very high.

We can never succeed under these circumstances. The people who support and give shelter to the Bin Ladin's of the world are not held accountable for their actions. As long as this situation persists, Bin Ladin and his supporters will not be touched.

How To Make OPEC Blink

A must read piece from Foreign Policy.

Crude oil prices continue to hover around the $90 mark. And the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a consortium of the world’s top oil producers, has something to say to consumers: Tough luck. This message was delivered at last week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, where the cartel’s member states ignored consumers’ pleas to open the spigot and provide some relief.

For OPEC, whose flush-with-petrodollars members seem unconcerned by the pain inflicted on the global economy by oil’s meteoric rise, increasing output is not a matter of capacity, but of will. The cartel owns 78 percent of the world’s proven reserves and produces about 40 percent of its oil. Its members have plenty of cash to invest in new production, and OPEC has repeatedly claimed it holds spare production capacity of more than 3 million barrels per day. This claim is impossible to verify, thanks to OPEC’s notorious lack of transparency. But, if true, it means OPEC can inject a significant amount of oil into the market almost immediately, dropping prices by as much as $20 to $30 a barrel.

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My Comment: Many of the major wars and political battles that involve us revolve around the issue of energy. In particular oil.

Oil is not only the lifeblood for us in the West, but it is also the source of monies and funds for Al Qaeda and other Islamic extremists. If OPEC was not awash in petrodollars, I very much doubt that countries like Iran, Chavez in Venezuela, the growing militarism of Russia, Al Qaeda and their allies, as well as many other minor players would even be a factor in todays world.

I can even make the argument that U.S. forces would not be in Iraq or Afghanistan today.

This is unfortunately not the case now. To change this present environment it is clear that we must diversify our need for foreign oil. I know that this will take a long time, but this article is a good way to start this conversation.

Iraq -- The Diary Of An Insurgent In Retreat

From MSNBC:

BAGHDAD - On Nov. 3, U.S. soldiers raided a safe house of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq near the northern city of Balad. Not a single combatant was captured, but inside the house they found something valuable: a diary and will written in neat Arabic script.

"I am Abu Tariq, Emir of al-Layin and al-Mashadah Sector," it began.

Over 16 pages, the al-Qaeda in Iraq leader detailed the organization's demise in his sector. He once had 600 men, but now his force was down to 20 or fewer, he wrote. They had lost weapons and allies. Abu Tariq focused his anger in particular on the Sunni fighters and tribesmen who have turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq and joined the U.S.-backed Sunni Sahwa, or "Awakening," forces.

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More News From Times Online: Al-Qaeda Leaders Admit: 'We Are In Crisis. There Is Panic And Fear'

My Comment: With coalition and civilian deaths going down, especially now when the climate is ideal for insurgent activity (not too hot, not too cold), gives testimony to the hypothesis that Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgents are at the end of a losing battle. This small diary, if authenticated, definitely gives a clear indication of this trend.

The fact that coalition forces have released this diary now ..... 3 months after it was obtained ..... also gives the impression that coalition forces believe that it is an authentic item, and that it would serve a better purpose now to have it released to the general public. The information war is just as important as the real one. This diary is a clear win for the forces against extremism.