Is Former US Vice-President Biden Ahead In The Polls? Is The US Presidential Election Over? This Is My Analysis

                                                                       Morry Gash/Pool via REUTERS 

CNBC: Biden is still leading in the polls, and voters say he won his first debate against Trump 

 * Democrat Joe Biden came into the first debate ahead of President Trump in the national polls. 

 * The first scientific polls to ask who won the debate Tuesday night show Biden coming out on top. 

 * A CNBC/Change Research poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday found 53% of likely voters nationwide said Biden did a better job in the debate, compared with 29% for Trump. 

Democrat Joe Biden came into the first debate ahead of President Donald Trump in the national polls. If voter reactions to the first debate are any indication, Biden is likely to keep a hold on the lead after the face-off, too. 

Here’s what some of the national polling trackers said Thursday morning: 

 * The NBC News national polling average had Biden up 7.9 points over Trump. That figure is based on an unweighted average of the 10 most recent reliable public opinion polls. 

 * The RealClearPolitics general election polling average showed Biden with a 6.6-point lead over Trump. 

 * FiveThirtyEight’s national polling tracker gave Biden a 7.6-point advantage. Three polls asking who won Tuesday night’s debate show Biden coming out on top – though respondents, along with most commentators and even the moderator himself, gave dismal reviews to the contest itself, which appears to have changed few minds. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: The pollsters who said that President Trump was going to lose in a landslide in 2016 are the same pollsters who are predicting the same thing this year, only that he will lose in an even bigger landslide than what they were predicting in 2016. And when I look at the polls that were accurate in 2016, like Rasmussen, they are giving a different picture. They are saying that President Trump's approval numbers are the same as President Obama's were in 2016 if not better ... Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen). People are not going to vote out a President that they approve. But most polls are predicting a landslide defeat for President Trump. So who is right? 

I know that almost half the country hates President Trump. Their focus is always on President Trump, and who the Democrat candidate is and his policies are for many of these Democrat voters and never-Trumpers not important. What is important for them is to see President Trump gone. That is why I expect most of these voters will to go to the polls on election day. Their hatred towards President Trump is personal for them, and as I have learned recently from reading their Tweets and social media accounts, their contempt for the President is off the scale. On the flip side less than half of the country strongly support President Trump. Maybe their numbers are less than those who hate the President, but their support of the President is very real, and nothing will change their mind. Bottom line. They are going to vote in numbers we have never seen before for a Republican candidate. As for the remaining electorate .... many who view themselves as independent. I see these people staying home. None of the candidates appeal to them, and they have zero enthusiasm to go and vote.

Another group that I always look at during a US election cycle is the voting behavior among non-white voters. President Trump polled poorly among Blacks and Hispanics in 2016. But in this election cycle my American Black and Hispanic readers are telling me that President Trump is going to do well. His outreach to the Black and Hispanic community has resonated and they predict that President will get about 20% of the Black vote, and about 45% of the Hispanic vote. I am skeptical of these opinions. Blacks always vote enmasse for Democrats. And Hispanics are leery of President Trump's border pronouncements. But I was surprised by this poll .... Spanish Speaking Viewers Of Telemundo By A Margin Of 2 To 1 Say President Trump Won Tonight's Presidential Debate. And then I was surprised by this .... BET founder suggests he's voting against Biden: 'I will take the devil I know over the devil I don't know' (FOX News). We shall know for sure in 5 weeks, but making promises like this one do have an impact .... President Trump Unveils $500 Billion Economic Plan For Black Americans And Will Designate The KKK And Antifa As "Terrorist Organizations". Also Promised To Make Juneteenth A Federal Holiday (September 25, 2020). 

The last factor that I look at is enthusiasm. On this metric President Trump beats everyone hands down. Wherever he goes tens of thousands attend his allies, and a good number of them are not even Republican. The energy and excitement is there. I have never seen anything like this. This is in complete contrast to what is happening on the other side. The rallies for former Vice-President Biden are non-existent. There is no base of support. The passion is not there. That tells me that his supporters are not enthusiastic of  the former Vice-President and his policies. They will vote for him, but the reason why is because of President Trump, not because of the former Vice-President. So what I think will finally decide this election will come down to how many of Biden's voters will stay home, and how many will go out and vote for him. That is an answer that I do not know. But if 5% of those who say to the pollsters that they will vote for Biden but actually stay home .... President Trump will be re-elected. I think the Democrats know this. That is why the media went crazy over labelling President Trump a white supremist and worse today. They need to motivate that part of their base that may not like the President, but are not visceral about it. But to keep that level of hate at such an intensity for any period of time is hard. I do not know if the Democrats can pull it off. All that I can say is that for a political party that is suppose to be way ahead of the polls, they are certainly not acting the part.

Update: I forgot to mention this .... Biden Breaks Fundraising Record Again, Buoyed By Debate (Bloomberg). Hillary Clinton outspent Trump two to one in 2016. It looks like Biden is going to out-spend Trump four to one in this cycle. But I do not think the regular rules of politics and running a campaign work here. Everyone I know in the US has already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for President. They are not going to change their minds because of 24/7 ads. It may actually turn them off. But Republicans do have to worry. This spending may have a very real impact on close  Congressional, Senate, and Governor races. 

Russian Soldiers Fight Each Other To Earn A Crimson Beret

Volga Federal District's National Guard special forces servicemen fight each other to earn a crimson beret in the Republic of Tatarstan, southwest Russia, today 

Daily Mail: Russian soldiers beat each other black and blue in gruelling annual test to qualify for Spetsnaz crimson beret 

 * Volga Federal District's National Guard special forces servicemen took part in the gruelling test today 

 * The soldiers fought each other at the Bars training ground in the Republic of Tatarstan, southwest Russia 

 * Elite members of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) Spetsnaz units wear the beret and have to take the test 

 * It is split into three rounds including a run through minefields, a weapons stage, and a 12-minute fist fight 

Russian soldiers have been captured slugging it out in a gruesome boxing fight as part of their qualifications for a special forces beret in a spectacular set of photos. 

Volga Federal District's National Guard special forces servicemen took part in the gruelling test to earn a crimson beret today. 

Striking pictures show the men battering each other's faces bloody at the Bars training ground in the Republic of Tatarstan, southwest Russia. 

The soldiers also performed a series of other qualifications tests, including weapons and ammunition drills, kickboxing and obstacle courses. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: Two of my cousins served years ago, and they got their Spetsnaz crimson beret. One of them gave me his beret to me as a gift which I still have at my home in Russia. I think his blood is still on it. On a side note. This same cousin read this post that I put up yesterday .... US Navy SEALs Have Adopted A Gender-Neutral Language In Their Ethos (September 30, 2020). He emailed me this morning shocked. He has trouble believing that it is true. Sighhh .... but it is.

Hundreds Of Millions Of Chinese Are Going On Vacation Today

 

Daily Mail: Hundreds of millions of Chinese rush to take their first major holiday since COVID-19 outbreak as the nation promotes 'revenge travel' to boost economy 

 * Footage and pictures show renowned scenic spots swamped by visitors in China 

 * Hundreds of millions are flocking to celebrate the Chinese National Day today 

 * Officials hope to boost the coronavirus-ravaged economy with 'revenge travel' 

 * About 550 million are expected to travel during the first major post-virus holiday 

Hundreds of millions in China have hustled to enjoy their first major national holiday since the country claimed to have contained its COVID-19 outbreak.  

The nation is also hoping to boost its coronavirus-ravaged economy by encouraging its citizens to take part in 'revenge travel'. 

Authorities estimate that around 550 million people will make trips within the country during the 'Golden Week' this year, an eight-day holiday celebrating China's National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. 

Read more .... 

Update #1: Hundreds of millions in China to go travelling this week despite COVID-19 pandemic (ABC News Online) 

Update #2: China contained Covid-19. Now, hundreds of millions of people there are about to go on vacation at the same time (CNN) 

WNU Editor: Beijing has made the calculation that they can control any outbreak if it happens. We shall see.

FBI Releases Movie To Alert Americans On How Chinese Intelligence Is Using Social Media Platforms To Target Them

 

Bloomberg: FBI Releases Movie to Alert Americans of Foreign Spy Threats 

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. national intelligence agencies released a movie Wednesday to raise awareness of how foreign intelligence entities use social media to target Americans. 

The film, called “The Nevernight Connection,” tells the fictional account of a former U.S. intelligence official who went to spy for the Chinese. The official was targeted by a Chinese foreign intelligence service through a fake profile on a professional networking site and recruited to turn over classified information. It was inspired by the true story of former Central Intelligence Agency officer Kevin Mallory, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2019 for passing national defense information to a Chinese intelligence officer. The 30-minute film, released by the FBI and the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, is free and available on the FBI’s website. 

Read more .... 

Update: FBI and NCSC Release New Movie to Increase Awareness of Foreign Intelligence Threats on Professional Networking Sites and Other Social Media Platforms (Homeland Security Today) 

WNU Editor: The movie is focused on China. Not Russia. It's about time on the FBI realizing where the real threat is coming from.

North Korea Continues To Build It's Nuclear Capability

         North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un in an image released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency today 

 Joby Warrick and Simon Denyer, The Washington Post: As Kim wooed Trump with 'love letters,' he kept building his nuclear capability, intelligence shows 

In a secret letter to President Donald Trump in December 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un likened the two leaders' budding friendship to a Hollywood romance. Future meetings with "Your Excellency," Kim wrote to Trump, would be "reminiscent of a scene from a fantasy film." Yet even as he penned the words, Kim was busy creating an illusion of a different kind. 

At six of the country's missile bases, trucks hauled rock from underground construction sites as workers dug a maze of new tunnels and bunkers, allowing North Korea to move weapons around like peas in a shell game. Southeast of the capital, meanwhile, new buildings sprouted across an industrial complex that was processing uranium for as many as 15 new bombs, according to current and former U.S. and South Korean officials, as well as a report by a United Nations panel of experts. 

The new work reflects a continuation of a pattern observed by analysts since the first summit between Trump and Kim in 2018. While North Korea has refrained from carrying out provocative tests of its most advanced weapons systems, it never stopped working on them, U.S. intelligence officials said. Indeed, new evidence suggests that Kim took advantage of the lull by improving his ability to hide his most powerful weapons and shield them from future attacks.  

Read more ....  

Update: North Korea HAS created miniature nukes and has been developing its ballistic missile programme at an ‘intense pace’ despite coronavirus pandemic, UN report warns (Daily Mail)  

WNU Editor: There is no arms or peace treaty with North Korea. They could do what they want, and this point was made very clear by others, including this blogger, when talks began with North Korea two years ago. What currently exists is an understanding between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to not raise tensions on the Korean peninsula, and to definitely not conduct nuclear tests. Nothing less and nothing more. This reminds me of the nuclear arms negotiations between Reagan and Gorbachev in the 1980s. The negotiations took years, and the development and production of nuclear weapons only started to wind-down when a treaty was finally signed. The same thing is going to happen with North Korea. My big worry is what will happen if President Trump loses the election next month. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will no longer feel oblige to honour his promises to President Trump, and I do not sense North Korea is a priority for Joe Biden and his team. It would not surprise me if the North Korean leader would then resume inter-continental missile tests and nuclear tests within a year.

FBI Say Russian Intelligence Is Using A 'Right-Wing' News Site To Target U.S. Voters

Reuters: Exclusive: Russian operation masqueraded as right-wing news site to target U.S. voters - sources 

LONDON (Reuters) - The Russian group accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. election has posed as an independent news outlet to target right-wing social media users ahead of this year’s vote, two people familiar with an FBI probe into the activity told Reuters. 

The latest operation centred around a pseudo media organisation called the Newsroom for American and European Based Citizens (NAEBC), which was run by people associated with the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency, the sources said. 

U.S. prosecutors say the agency played a key role in Russian efforts to sway the 2016 election in favour of President Donald Trump, and Facebook and Twitter exposed a fake left-wing media outlet in September which they said was run by people connected to the organisation. 

 Read more ....  

WNU Editor: The FBI's focus is on the news website called Newsroom for American and European Based Citizens (NAEBC). I was naturally curious to see what they are writing about that got the attention of the FBI, so I tried to look for it. It was not easy to find this website. Its not highly ranked by Google, which tells me that the traffic to it must be very low. But I did find it, and the link is here. The site is basically a news aggregator that takes news reports from the main stream media, and puts a "conservative" bent/commentary to it. They do not post much .... maybe 2 or 3 posts a day, and most of what they post has already been reported by the wire services. From what I have seen .... this "news website" has little if any traffic. They are not present on social media. And what they are posting is not interesting. If this is the example that the FBI is using to make their case that Russia is trying to influence the US electorate, I am laughing hysterically right now.

Venezuela's Food Chain Has Broken

With domestic production of food hobbled, Venezuela relies on food imports, which make up 85% of the food supply. A market in Maracaibo. Photo: Luis Bravo/Agence France-Presse  

WSJ: Venezuela’s Food Chain Is Breaking, and Millions Go Hungry  

A report found 13% of children under 5 are stunted; oil-rich nation is ‘on the edge of an irreversible catastrophe’ 

Ana Nuñez, a 62-year-old retired municipal worker in western Venezuela, says her meals often consist of just a few corn-flour pancakes, known as arepas. 

Even when she has money to buy groceries in the city of Maracaibo’s teeming flea market, she said that “instead of quality food they sell garbage, like animal hides and rotten cheese.” 

A widespread scarcity of gasoline is the latest blow to domestic food production in Venezuela, preventing goods from getting to market and farmers from filling up their tractors. Food production in this oil-rich nation, led by its socialist president, Nicolas Maduro, had already been hobbled by shortages of seeds and agrochemicals, price controls that made raising crops unprofitable and government seizures of farms and food-processing plants. 

Venezuelans aren’t the only ones going hungry. Across Latin America the economic blow caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has thrown millions out of work and into poverty. 

From Mexico City to Santiago, people are skipping meals, lining up at soup kitchens and begging, United Nations agencies say. 

But conditions in Venezuela, which even before the pandemic was suffering the worst economic meltdown in its history, are by far the most dire.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I still have one contact in Caracus who has been feeding me info for years on what is happening in Venezuela. He mentioned to me during the summer that the availability of food was now only to those who can afford it and/or to those in government. And Venezuela is not the only one facing this crisis (albeit it is the worst one in the hemisphere). Central and South America along with a few Caribbean countries are now facing a humanitarian food crisis that is unprecedented in modern times .... No Meat, No Milk, No Bread, hunger CRisis Rocks Latin America (Bloomberg). More here .... Global Food Shortages Are Becoming Very Real, And US Grocery Store Chains Are Preparing For Worst Case Scenarios (Zero Hedge).

This U.S. Presidential Election Will Be Decided On Who Can Get Their Base To Go Out And Vote

This debate has actually convinced some undecided voters to not vote at all.

I’ve never seen a debate cause this reaction. #Debates2020

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 30, 2020

Hot Air: Luntz: For first time ever, undecideds in debate focus group decided not to vote at all 

Consider Frank Luntz flabbergasted. The experienced focus-group handler collected a number of undecided voters for the presidential debate, as he has in several cycles, in order to test the initial movement the event creates. Usually Luntz gets a sense that undecideds have moved toward one candidate or another, and those results are a fairly good test of instant reaction … if not lasting impact. 

 This time, however, the movement was less towards a candidate, and more toward the door:  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I agree with the above analysis, and it is what I said after the debate .... .... So will anything change from tonight's debate. There was a side of Joe Biden that was revealed tonight that I do not think will appeal to those voters who are looking to vote for someone other than President Trump. They needed to be reassured, and Joe Biden certainly did not deliver on that tonight. I can see these voters staying home.  

Update: LOL! this is so true. President Trump did to former Vice-President Biden what then Vice-Presdient Biden did to Paul Ryan in their 2012 debate (see video below).

Tweets Of The Day

Heavy fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh has entered a fourth straight day in the biggest escalation of the decades-old conflict in years. https://t.co/cDjKmFCElK

— AP Europe (@AP_Europe) September 30, 2020

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: Russia offers to host Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks https://t.co/ODin9o28P5

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) October 1, 2020

#UPDATE Moscow said Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron had called for a "complete" halt to fighting in Karabakh and said they were ready to intensify diplomatic efforts to help solve the conflict https://t.co/GmBSrl5BT6

— AFP news agency (@AFP) September 30, 2020

U.S. holding back on Belarus sanctions, hopes for joint move with EU: sources https://t.co/NVZfOebGE9 pic.twitter.com/RfAbtgSlKs

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 1, 2020

A Canadian judge adjourned Chinese Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou's extradition hearing to consider the defendant's claims that key evidence had been omitted https://t.co/CbjRKl0Hlb

— AFP news agency (@AFP) September 30, 2020

Tiktok is not always awful. pic.twitter.com/zXKitzt2K8

— Zero Blog Thirty (@ZeroBlog30) October 1, 2020

Picture Of The Day

Soldiers assigned to the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team fire the new M109A7 Paladin during training at Fort Hood, Texas, Sept. 17, 2020. The new Paladin is a part of the brigade's ongoing modernization efforts to enhance combat power and drive readiness.  

WNU Editor: The above picture is from this photo-gallery .... U.S. Department of Defense Photo-Gallery.