Where unrest has occurred in eastern Ukraine
How Will The Ukraine Crisis End? Five Possible Scenarios -- Tim Lister, CNN
(CNN) -- Ukraine's young government is running out of viable options for restoring its control of eastern regions and preserving the country's territorial integrity. Government and police buildings in more than a dozen places are still held by pro-Russian protesters, sometimes led by masked and well-armed men in uniform. The response from Kiev to this assault has been inconsistent and hesitant.
Amid a war of words between Washington and Moscow, the "agreement" reached in Geneva last week for resolving the crisis looks dead in the water. Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of bad faith, and on the ground there is a growing sense of stalemate, interrupted by episodes of violence that only harden views.
Just one month before the Ukrainian presidential election, constitutional reforms that might mollify the pro-Russian protesters are still being thrashed out.
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My Comment: The best case scenario is one in which a political agreement is reached .... but no one is negotiating right now. I do not see a civil war or a Russian invasion happening .... if that happens it will be a disaster for everyone .... and no one wants that. What I see is the Ukraine government asserting some form of authority in the region .... but it is going to be tenuous at best. In such a situation I can easily foresee a low level insurgency developing .... something similar to the troubles in Northern Ireland is what comes to mind. In the end .... a political agreement will need to be reached .... but I just do not see it happening right now.