Xi Jinping reviews a military display in the South China Sea on April 12, 2018. Photo: Reuters/Li Gang/Xinhua
Bertil Lintner, Asia Times: Why a China invasion of Taiwan would fail
President Xi Jinping's call for 'reunification' of the independent island and communist mainland aims to cement his strongman legacy but would likewise risk a humbling defeat.
When President Xi Jinping called on January 2 for Taiwan’s ”reunification” with China, it was not the first time a Chinese leader threatened to use military might to force the island nation’s incorporation with the mainland.
But when Xi told his military forces a few days later to make preparations for an all-out war, the call to arms was clearly different from previous threats made against the island Beijing views as a renegade province.
Xi is emerging as modern China’s third communist strongman, and as with the previous two autocrats, national unity is a main prerogative.
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WNU Editor: The above commentary does not go into depth on why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail, but it accurately explains the ideal time frame if such an invasion should occur (by 2020).
7 comments:
I believe that if China were to suddenly attack Taiwan, it would result in an underwater turkey shoot that would see China's PLAN become inoperable. The PLAAF would see its nose bloodied badly. And when the PLA/PLANMC start taking KIA's, there will be a loud crying from the mainland. As ALL the crew/infantry and officers of the China armed forces are the only heir to their respective families.
I think any war of choice China enters into will fail because the Chinese are very casualty averse. There's no civilian tolerance for thousands of dead single male children.
This is not about Taiwan, but US clothing company breaks ties with chinese "slave labor" factory located in Internment Camp:
https://kstp.com/national/us-apparel-firm-cuts-off-chinese-factory-in-internment-camp/5204838/?cat=140
On the military side, that's pretty random to know who will win. Battles always offer surprises.
On political side, China cannot win: if defeated the shame would be horrific for the CCP, if winning, all the West will boycott China economy and it will be as horrific as a lost.
Are you kidding me? Ten fold that number die yearly in labour camps over there. And the male preference has ended in modern China. That thinking is also outdated.
But seriously there's so many people - even high profile party members, as reported left and right in the news - that disappear. In mainland China, in Hong Kong and abroad..like in Cambodia, and even Australia ...Chinese who are abducted or disappeared by China. Even among party members it happens. The state of China is much more tense to many than people in the West understand. Displease the regime, be consisted a political or other enemy, you're gone. Happened even to billionaires. Much like in Russia or Saudi Arabia, but many more.
There would be no protests until about 10%-20% of families are directly affected. Even if you take large numbers of direct and indirect family members (even in Asia typically below 50 but let's take 100), you'd see this converts to roughly 15 million very large families (I'm too lazy to look it up and for simple math I'm assuming current China population 1.5bn), ie it would require 1.5-3mn casualties.
Let's assume - contrary to nature of authoritarian/ totalitarian state that China is already and let's further neglect the state of emergency influence and national pride during time of war or dangerous conflict with adversary and say "it would only take 1% of very large family members to move the population"..you'd see even then you'd be miles off. It would require 150,000-300,000 still.
Basic math and reasoning is your friend. You looked a bit like a Democrat there for a second ;-)) just kidding. You didn't scream or called me racist,sexist or Nazi haha
Good points, anon 10:55.
/you fascist you!!
Hehe ;) thx
Exactly, China,wouldn't give 2 fucks if they lost 10,000 in a week,they would go harder. This isn't a democracy where you protest and win, tienaman square was nothing compared to what would happen.
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