Why Pakistan Wants To Build Nuclear Weapons

Kyle Mizokami, National Interest: Why Pakistan Risked Everything To Build Nuclear Weapons

Pakistan has a difficult security environment.

Here's What You Need To Remember: Pakistan is clearly developing a robust nuclear capability that can not only deter but fight a nuclear war. It is also dealing with internal security issues that could threaten the integrity of its nuclear arsenal.

Sandwiched between Iran, China, India and Afghanistan, Pakistan lives in a complicated neighborhood with a variety of security issues. One of the nine known states known to have nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and doctrine are continually evolving to match perceived threats. A nuclear power for decades, Pakistan is now attempting to construct a nuclear triad of its own, making its nuclear arsenal resilient and capable of devastating retaliatory strikes.

Pakistan’s nuclear program goes back to the 1950s, during the early days of its rivalry with India. President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously said in 1965, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.”

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WNU Editor: And this sums up why this part of the world is poor and unstable .... President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously said in 1965, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.”

Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Weapons Are A Real Threat

Reuters

Kyle Mizokami, National Interest: Forget Russia, Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Weapons Are A Real Threat

A dangerous environment.

Here's What You Need To Remember: Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, particularly tactical nuclear weapons, are seen as an asymmetric means of offsetting India’s advantage in conventional forces. Even if a Pakistani Army offensive into India fails and the Strike Corps counterattacked, tactical nuclear weapons could blunt their spearheads, ideally halting them in their tracks.

Of all the countries in the world, just nine are believed to have developed nuclear weapons. One member of this exclusive club is Pakistan, a country that occupies a unique strategic position on the Indian subcontinent. An ally of the United States and China and archenemy of India, Pakistan has developed a nuclear arsenal to suit its own particular needs. Unusually among the smaller powers, Islamabad has developed an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons designed to destroy enemy forces on the battlefield.

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WNU Editor: Pakistan is one of those countries that I am always leery about. The above story about its nuclear arsenal does not surprise me.

Pakistan Prime Minister Khan: Would Not Use Nuclear Weapons First

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan listens while meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington July 22. REUTERS

Japan Times/Reuters: Pakistan would not use nuclear weapons first, amid tensions with India: Khan

Pakistan would not use nuclear weapons first, Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Monday, amid tensions with arch-rival India after New Delhi revoked the special status of its part of the disputed Kashmir region.

“We both are nuclear-armed countries. If these tensions increase, the world could be in danger,” Khan said, addressing members of the Sikh religious community in the eastern city of Lahore. “There will be no first from our side ever,” he said.

The foreign ministry’s spokesman subsequently said on Twitter that the comments were being taken out of context and did not represent a change in Pakistan’s nuclear policy.

“PM was simply reiterating Pakistan’s commitment to peace and the need for both nuclear states to demonstrate responsible behaviour,” spokesman Mohammad Faisal said on his official Twitter account.

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WNU Editor: Here is an assessment on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal .... Pakistan Has Lots of Nuclear Weapons: Should the World Worry? (National Interest).

Pakistan Tests Nuke-Capable Missile (Video)

Sputnik: WATCH: Pakistan Tests Nuke-Capable Missile Designed to Beat Indian S-400s

Last month, Pakistan conducted two tests of its Nasr/Hatf-IX close-range ballistic missile. Pakistan boasts that the missile, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, can beat India’s best missile defense systems: the S-400s it recently bought from Russia. Designed for forward deployment, experts fear Nasr makes the use of nuclear weapons more likely.

Pakistan's military inducted the Nasr missile into its arsenal in 2017, Sputnik previously reported. The missile is described by the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of Pakistan's military, as "a high precision, shoot and scoot weapon system with the ability of in-flight maneuverability," according to a January 24 press release.

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WNU Editor: Sending a message to India.

This is How Pakistan Will Fight A Nuclear War

Photo from Pakistan Today

Kyle Mizokami, National Interest: How Pakistan Is Planning to Fight a Nuclear War

Sandwiched between Iran, China, India and Afghanistan, Pakistan lives in a complicated neighborhood with a variety of security issues. One of the nine known states known to have nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and doctrine are continually evolving to match perceived threats. A nuclear power for decades, Pakistan is now attempting to construct a nuclear triad of its own, making its nuclear arsenal resilient and capable of devastating retaliatory strikes.

Pakistan’s nuclear program goes back to the 1950s, during the early days of its rivalry with India. President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously said in 1965, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.”

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WNU Editor: A good run down on the the history of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program .... a program where much is still secret.

Pakistan's Embrace Of Small Tactical Nuclear Warheads Raises Concerns On How Secured Are These Warheads

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

From The Atlantic

Economic Times/New York Times: Pakistan's embrace of small, tactical nuclear weapons, highly vulnerable to theft

WASHINGTON — As President Obama gathers world leaders in Washington this week for his last Nuclear Security Summit, tons of materials that terrorists could use to make small nuclear devices or dirty bombs remain deeply vulnerable to theft. Still, Mr. Obama’s six-year effort to rid the world of loose nuclear material has succeeded in pulling bomb-grade fuel out of countries from Ukraine to Chile, and has firmly put nuclear security on the global agenda.

But despite the progress, several countries are balking at safeguards promoted by the United States or are building new stockpiles.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, where some of the largest stockpiles of civilian nuclear material remain, has decided to boycott the summit meeting, which begins Thursday night. Mr. Putin has made it clear he will not engage in nuclear cleanup efforts dominated by the United States.

In addition, Pakistan’s embrace of a new generation of small, tactical nuclear weapons, which the Obama administration considers highly vulnerable to theft or misuse, has changed the way the administration talks about Pakistani nuclear security. While Mr. Obama declared early in his presidency that the United States believed Pakistan’s nuclear assets were secure, administration officials will no longer repeat that line. Instead, when the subject comes up, they note the modest progress Pakistan has made in training its guards and investing in sensors to detect break-ins. They refuse to discuss secret talks to persuade the Pakistanis not to deploy their new weapons.

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WNU Editor: I suspect that these warheads are heavily guarded .... but you can never say for sure that they are 100% secured.

Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal Is Becoming One Of The Biggest International Security Challenges For 2016

Business Insider: Here's the biggest international security challenge of 2016 that nobody is talking about

The year ahead will bring no shortage of international issues that will keep the US and its partners occupied, ranging from the fight against ISIS to the implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement.

But there's been another serious impending crisis building in the background — one involving terrorism, nuclear weapons, interstate power politics, and an important US ally.

The crisis isn't likely to explode in 2016. Its eruption is currently far from inevitable. But there's a good chance, depending on what happens in 2016, that it could become more likely.

WNU Editor: This is why India is afraid .... India Warns That The Islamic State Could Get A Nuclear Weapons From Pakistan, and why everyone else is afraid .... Islamic State Claims That They Are Close To Purchasing A Pakistani Nuclear Weapon That They Will Then Smuggle Into The U.S.

India Is The Reason Why Pakistan Is Stockpiling Nuclear Weapons

Image via npr.org screen capture

Washington Post/The Telegraph: Pakistan stockpiling nuclear arms due to fears over India: U.S. report

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – A new report by two American think tanks asserts that Pakistan may be building 20 nuclear warheads annually and could have the world’s third-largest nuclear stockpile within a decade.

The report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center concludes that Pakistan is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities because of fear of its arch-rival, India, also a nuclear power. The report, released Thursday, says Pakistan is far outpacing India in the development of nuclear warheads.

Analysts estimate that Pakistan has about 120 nuclear warheads, while India has about 100.

Previous Post: Pakistan Will Have The World's 3rd Largest Nuclear Arsenal Within A Decade

WNU Editor: Pakistan has more than enough nuclear weapons to deter India .... there is something more at play right here.

Pakistan Will Have The World's 3rd Largest Nuclear Arsenal Within A Decade

This still image from a Pakistan military handout video shows a Hatf IX (NASR) missile being fired during a test at an undisclosed location in Pakistan April 19, 2011. Pakistan on Tuesday test fired a newly developed short range surface to surface ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear warheads, the military said. REUTERS/Pakistan Military Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR)

Washington Post: Report: Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could become the world’s third-biggest

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A new report by two American think tanks asserts that Pakistan may be building 20 nuclear warheads annually and could have the world’s third-largest nuclear stockpile within a decade.

The report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center concludes that Pakistan is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities because of fear of its archrival, India, also a nuclear power. The report, which will be released Thursday, says Pakistan is far outpacing India in the development of nuclear warheads.

Analysts estimate that Pakistan has about 120 nuclear warheads, while India has about 100.

More News On Reports That Pakistan Will Have The World's 3rd Largest Nuclear Arsenal Within A Decade

Report: In A Decade (Or Sooner), Pakistan Could Be No. 3 Nuclear Power -- NPR
Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal Could Be Third Biggest In The World Within A Decade: Report -- IBTimes
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could become world’s third biggest, says report -- Asia Times/Express Tribune
Pakistan said to be on track to have third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons -- Financial Times
Pakistan Could Become World’s No. 3 Nuclear Power -- Value Walk
Report: Pakistan on track to have world's 3rd largest nuclear arsenal -- Washington Examiner
Time for Pakistan to Change its Nuclear Strategy: Experts -- Prashanth Parameswaran, The Diplomat

Why We Should Worry About Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

One More Reason To Worry About Pakistan’s Nukes -- Michael Kugelman, National Interest

Last year, Pakistan experienced a wave of leadership transitions. The country welcomed a new government, president, Supreme Court chief justice, and army chief.

Yet one of the most troubling changes occurred on the very last day of 2013, and with little fanfare. On December 31, according to Pakistani media reports, Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai logged his last day as head of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), the entity in charge of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

Kidwai has long been the institutional face of Pakistani nukes. The SPD was established in 2000, and Kidwai has been its only director (he’s been described as the “longest serving boss in any strategic or defense establishment” in Pakistan). He received numerous extensions to continue in the post after 2007, the year of his formal retirement.

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My Comment: This is one of those (possible) nightmare scenarios.

Is Pakistan A Greater Nuclear Threat Than Iran?

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Enough About Iran, Pakistan's Nuclear Threat Should Be Our Top Concern -- Douglas MacKinnon, FOX News

Like many politicians, many in the media have a herd mentality and push or follow the flavor-of-the-week-month, or even year, “crisis” of the moment. More than that, like these less than resolute politicians, many in the media will kick the can down the road when the real problems before their eyes have no easy solutions.

Such being the case with the “impending threat” from Iran.

Really? Is the radical Islamic leadership of Iran crazy enough to eventually use nuclear weapons assuring the instant destruction of their nation, or are they instead “crazy like a fox” playing the United States and other nations for fools while using these foreign governments as foils to prop themselves up before their own people?

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Update: 'Pak nuclear weapons' threat under estimated' -- Indian Express

My Comment: There is some validity in this analysis .... Pakistan already has nuclear weapons and it is the world’s number one source of jihadi suicide bombers and it is ground zero for the training of many Islamic terrorists around the world.

Pakistan Faces A Choice: Nuclear Weapons Or Electricity

A Nuclear Arsenal But Trouble Turning On The Lights? Pakistan Struggles With Power Crisis -- NBC

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Even though Pakistan is the planet’s sixth most populous country and has the world’s seventh largest military and its fourth largest nuclear arsenal, most of the country can’t reliably watch the evening news, read at bedtime or talk on their cell phones.

These limitations have got little to do with the freedom of speech or expression.

There is literally a power crisis in Pakistan. For the 34 years that this reporter has been living in Pakistan, not a week has gone by without a reported, or experienced, power outage throughout the country. Every day, millions of Pakistanis across the country have little electricity, summer or winter.

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My Comment: This paragraph sums it up perfectly ....

.... Even though Pakistan is the planet’s sixth most populous country and has the world’s seventh largest military and its fourth largest nuclear arsenal, most of the country can’t reliably watch the evening news, read at bedtime or talk on their cell phones.

As an outsider, I would say that Pakistan has it's priorities all screwed up. But for many Pakistanis .... if given the choice this is what they want.

Pakistan's Rush To Develop Tactical Nukes Is Raising Concerns

Photo Credit: Inter Services Public Relations (Pakistan Military)

New Year, New Problem? Pakistan’s Tactical Nukes -- Shashank Joshi, The Diplomat

Pakistan is developing a new generation of smaller "tactical" nuclear weapons. The dangers and challenges such arms present are very real.

October of last year marked the fiftieth anniversary of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Many Asian policymakers will read the lessons of that harrowing episode with some self-satisfaction.

When India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear weapon tests in 1998, foreign analysts repeatedly told them that, as poor countries with weak institutions, they could not be entrusted with such awesome weaponry. Nascent nuclear powers were simply less reliable stewards than their Cold War counterparts. Over a decade on, and multiple crises later — Kargil in 1999, a military standoff in 2001-2, and the Mumbai attacks of 2008 — India and Pakistan have experienced nothing quite as perilous as the Cuban scare.

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My Comment: A nuclear arms race is not what the world needs right now .... especially in Asia.

Is Pakistan Expanding Its Nuclear Arsenal To Deter A US Attack?

Pakistan 'Expanding Nuclear Arsenal To Deter US Attack' -- New York Post

According Shyam Saran, India's former foreign secretary, Pakistan is working on expanding its nuclear arsenal to deter a US attack. Pakistan is believed to have 110 nuclear warheads. Washington remains concerned about the security of its nuclear bases.

Asia's triangular arms race has traditionally reflected the rivalries between India and China and India and Pakistan, but according to an influential former adviser to Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, Pakistan now regards the United States as a potential threat.

In an article for The Hindu newspaper, Shyam Saran said Islamabad had invested in a new generation of plutonium-based warheads, increased the size range of its arsenal, and improved the accuracy of its missiles.

Washington has voiced its concerns over the build-up in the region but believes it reflects Pakistan's long-standing fear of arch rival India's conventional force superiority.

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My Comment: Pakistan's focus is still on India. But .... if a terrorist nuclear bomb blows up an American city .... and the uranium/plutonium used has a 'Pakistan' signature .... I would not want to be living in a Pakistani city if such an event occurs.

Former FM Says Pakistani Nuclear Weapons Are Not Secure

Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Are Not Safe: Former Foreign Minister -- DNA

Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not safe under the present PPP dispensation, the country's former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said, evoking an angry response from the government, which rejected his contention as "baseless".

Qureshi said, Pakistan's nuclear programme was not safe under President Asif Ali Zardari's leadership. The ex-PPP leader has recently parted company with the ruling party and announced joining Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf party.

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MY Comment: I am sure these remarks from a former top Pakistani official is raising eyebrows in India, the White House, and other state capitals.

Pakistan To Train 8,000 To Guard It's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan Announces Move To Increase Nuclear Security -- The Atlantic

The Pakistani government has denounced the article I wrote with Marc Ambinder that concerns, among other things, the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program (see: The Ally From Hell), but now comes this news, just over the wires:

ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan is training 8,000 additional people to protect the country's nuclear arsenal, which the U.S. fears could be vulnerable to penetration by Islamist militants at war with the West, the Pakistani military said.

Those fears were heightened by a recent U.S. magazine article that quoted unnamed Pakistani and American officials as saying Pakistan transports nuclear weapons components around the country in delivery vans with little security to avoid detection -- a claim denied by Islamabad.

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Previous Post: Pakistan Denies News Reports That Their Nukes Are Transported In Insecure Vans

More News On Pakistan Increasing Security On It's Nuclear Stockpile

Pakistan trains 8,000 to protect nuclear arsenal -- USA Today
Pakistan trains 8,000 additional people to protect its nuclear arsenal as threats loom -- Washington Post/AP
Pakistan Training 8,000 Personnel to Safeguard Nuclear Arsenal -- Voice of America
Pakistan calls accusations about security of nuclear arsenal ‘pure fiction’ and ‘propaganda’ -- Washington Post
Pakistan denies nukes handled carelessly -- UPI

My Comment: Last week Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder at the Atlantic wrote an article that questioned Pakistani safeguards when it comes to their nuclear weapons .... wow .... talk about having an impact. In the meantime .... the US is still voicing its confidence that Pakistan is able to safeguard its nukes.

Will The U.S. Seize Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal In The Event Of A Crisis?

US Prepares For Worst-Case Scenario With Pakistan Nukes -- MSNBC

As U.S.-Pakistani relations spiral downward, the specter of a showdown between the increasingly antagonistic allies is garnering more attention, including the worst-case scenario of the U.S. attempting to “snatch” Pakistan’s 100-plus nuclear weapons if it feared they were about to fall into the wrong hands.

That would be a disastrous miscalculation, former Pakistani President and army chief Pervez Musharraf told NBC News, saying that such an incursion would lead to “total confrontation” between the United States and Pakistan.

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Update: U.S. Prepared to "Snatch" Pakistani Nukes, Report Claims -- Global Security Newswire

My Comment: I have trouble seeing the U.S. being successful in such an operation .... they simply do not have the assets to hit the many multiple targets in Pakistan that are in possession these nuclear assets. What I do see is India getting involved in such a crisis situation .... an involvement that would probably result in a nuclear war.

Pakistan Has The World’s Fastest Growing Nuclear Stockpile

Pak Has Fastest Growing N-Arsenal: US Study -- Indian Express

A startling new study on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme says that the country has the world’s fastest growing nuclear stockpile and could possess close to 200 nuclear warheads in a decade if the current rate of expansion continues.

The report by US experts factors in the two new plutonium production reactors and a new reprocessing facility being built by Pakistan that would enable it to churn out greater quantities of weapon grade fuel.

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Update: Pakistan Seen as Having Fastest Expanding Nuke Stockpile -- Global Security Newswire

My Comment: The Wall Street Journal has more on this story. The link is here.

Pakistan Cannot Protect It's Nuclear Arsenal From Islamic Extremists

The Pakistan Taliban claimed responsibility for attacking PNS Mehran, a naval base in Karachi Photo: REX

Pakistan 'Can't Protect Atomic Arsenal From Islamic Extremists' -- The Telegraph

Pakistan is unable to protect its growing atomic arsenal from the threat of Islamic extremists, according to one of the country's leading nuclear scientists.

Their security in a country known for political instability has long been a matter of concern and has taken on added urgency in recent weeks, ever since militants took control of a naval base in Karachi, holding elite troops at bay for more than 16 hours.

Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy, who teaches at universities in Lahore and Islamabad, said there was evidence that the Army had been infiltrated by extremist elements.

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My Comment: When you read stories like this one .... you cannot help but feel that the Pakistani authorities and Islamic extremists in the country are one and the same. So .... has the Pakistani Army been infiltrated by extremist elements who can threaten Pakistan's nuclear arsenal .... my gut is telling me that at the moment no, but with time they will be.

After The Taliban Raid On A Pakistani Naval Base, Questions Arise On The Security Of The Country's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan Media Ridicules Military After Attack -- Yahoo News/Reuters

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Pakistan's military was ridiculed and accused of complicity in the media on Tuesday after a small group of militants laid siege to a naval air base, holding out for 16 hours against about 100 commandos and rangers.

As few as six militants infiltrated the PNS Mehran naval base in Karachi, the headquarters of Pakistan's naval air wing, on Sunday night, killing 10 security forces and wounding 20.

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More News On Pakistan And Concerns Over The Security Of Its Nuclear Arsenal

NATO concern over Pakistan nuclear arsenal -- Al Jazeera
Taliban Strike Raises Concerns Over Safety of Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons -- Bloomberg
Navy siege rattles Pakistan -- The Australian
Contradictions emerge in accounts of Pakistan raid -- Yahoo News/AP
How did six Taliban hold off 100 security forces for 16 hours? -- Reuters
Pakistan’s Military Faces New Questions After Raid -- New York Times
‘Star Wars’ Terrorists Storm Pakistani Naval Base -- The Danger Room
Naval base attack weakens Pakistan's counter-terror surveillance -- Reuters