Opinions, Commentaries, And Editorials -- June 29, 2009

Bolivia's President Evo Morales, Honduras' ousted President Manuel Zelaya, Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez and Ecuador's President Rafael Correa attend the ALBA emergency meeting in Nicaragua June 29, 2009. Security forces faced off against angry supporters of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya on Monday as leftist Latin American leaders met to thrash out a response to an army coup and the United States urged a return to democratic order. REUTERS/Miraflores Palace/Handout

OPINIONS, COMMENTARIES, AND EDITORIALS

Our Decaying Nuclear Deterrent -- Jon Kyl and Richard Perle, Wall Street journal

Will Obama Follow Bush Or FDR? -- Benjamin Wittes and Jack Goldsmith, Washington Post

Is it 1979 All Over Again? -- Lydia Khalil, Christian Science Monitor

Honduras Defends Its Democracy -- Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall St Journal

We Must Restore Democracy in Honduras -- Roberto Lovato, Huffington Post

Venezuela and the Honduran Coup -- Stratfor

Honduras Coup Poses Challenge for Obama -- John Nichols, The Nation

The Surprising Limits of Our Iran Intelligence -- Eli Lake, The New Republic

Iran's Leaders Love Western Plots -- Christopher Hitchens, The Australian

What Iran Can Learn From South Africa -- Reihan Salam, Forbes

God Is Greater Than Government in Iran -- James Carroll, Boston Globe

An Obvious Smoking Gun in Iran -- Meyer-Resende & Kunkler, Daily Star

World News Briefs -- June 29, 2009

From 30 June Iraq?s police and army will carry out street patrols without American troops, who will remain in US bases. Photograph: Ahmad Al-rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

Fireworks Over Baghdad As Iraqis Take Over Cities -- Yahoo News/AP

BAGHDAD – Iraqi forces assume formal control of Baghdad and other cities on Tuesday after American troops hand over security in urban areas in a defining step toward ending the U.S. combat role in the country.

Fireworks, not bombings, colored the Baghdad skyline late Monday, and thousands attended a party in a park where singers performed patriotic songs. Loudspeakers at police stations and military checkpoints played recordings of similar tunes throughout the day, as Iraqi military vehicles decorated with flowers and national flags patrolled the capital.

Read more ....

MIDDLE EAST

Iran says recount shows election valid.

Palestinians prefer Fatah than Hamas: poll.

Hamas: No truth in media storm over Shalit deal.

Israel to build 50 new homes at West Bank settlement.

Hariri grapples with task of governing with Hezbollah.

ASIA

NKorea criticizes US missile defense for Hawaii.

Korea's Kim Jong Il photo a fake, report claims.

Japan, S.Korea in united stance against N.Korea.

Nine govt troops killed in southern Philippines.

Pol Pot paintings saved my life, S-21 survivor says.

'Tamil unit' for Sri Lanka's army.

AFRICA

Guinea-Bissau votes for new leader.

Zimbabwe's ex-opposition mulls break with gov't.

Nigerian militants say attack Shell despite amnesty.

Somali rebels threaten violent response to US arms.

Somalia moves to forefront on AU summit agenda.

EUROPE

Russia holds major war games in Caucasus. Russian exercises anger Georgia.

NATO restores ties with Russia.

Russia shutting down its casinos.

Northern Ireland's paramilitaries dump arsenal.

Observers report some flaws in Albania vote.

AMERICAS

Coup rocks Honduras. Leftist leaders hold emergency meeting over Honduras coup.

Argentine leader suffers sharp blow in vote. Argentine power couple loses congressional vote. More news here.

Mexico detains 93 police in corruption probe.

Abdelrazik arrives in Canada after six years in exile.

Colombia's Uribe faces a more wary U.S.

TERRORISM/THE LONG WAR

Court won't hear Sept. 11 claims vs. Saudi Arabia.

New rift opens over rights of detainees.

White House weighs exec order on detention. New guidance issued on military trials of detainees.

Britain, Bangladesh to set up anti-terrorism group.

FINANCIAL/ECONOMIC CRISIS

Germany's Merkel:Econ to probably hit rock bottom soon.

Bernard Madoff gets maximum 150 years in prison.

Dollar falls most in month as China urges new reserve currency.

Beijing formalizes call for new reserve currency.

The Return Of The Coup

From Foreign Policy Blog:

The Wall Street Journal's Mary O'Grady argues that the ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was not in fact a coup, since the president was himself holding a referendum in violation of an order by the country's supreme court. But I don't think one need defend Zelaya to argue that sending troops to break into a president's house and put him on a plane out of the country is generally not the best way to protect "the independence of institutions that keep presidents from becoming dictators."

Read more ....

My Comment: The trend is no longer to send the soldiers in the early morning hours to boot out a leader, the trend is to use the levers of power of the state to squeeze and/or suppress your opponents, to use the media to promote your message (denying everyone else the same privilege), and to insure that come election time, every advantage is put in place to favor your candidacy, and every disadvantage is put in place for your opponent.

Countries that fit this bill in Latin America are .... hmmmm .... Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Nicaragua. Hell .... even Brazilian President Lulu is thinking of running for a third term, a clear violation of the Brazilian constitution.

From where I stand, coups against constitutions and the rule of law are happening in Latin America almost everyday now.

China's Banks Are An Accident Waiting To Happen To Every One Of Us

A growing number of experts are casting doubt on China's
ability to pull the global economy from recession.

From The Telegraph:

Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous water

China's banks are veering out of control. The half-reformed economy of the People's Republic cannot absorb the $1,000bn (£600bn) blitz of new lending issued since December.

Money is leaking instead into Shanghai's stock casino, or being used to keep bankrupt builders on life support. It is doing very little to help lift the world economy out of slump.

Read more ....

My Comment: A Financial crisis in China will be a disaster for the American economy. As holders of most of our debt, any change in China's status will only result in higher interest rates and borrowing costs ... a condition that will impact Governments from the Federal level straight to the municipal level, as well as all business that are dependent on credit to stay afloat.

So .... can this happen?

China's financial structures are very new, and are (for the most part) regulated with the sole purpose of expanding the Chinese economy. This focused approach reminds me of Russia in 1992. A financial collapse quickly precipitated when Western credit sources and customers dried up with the 1991-92 recession, a drying up of liquidity that subsequently made many Russian banks go into default.

We (in the West) are in a recession now .... so we have to ask the question, will China repeat what had happened in Russia in 1992. The parallels are striking and .... considering what is at stake .... frightening.

Two Critical Editorials On President Obama's Plans For Missile Defense

Aloha, 'Star Wars' -- The Washington Times

Obama bluffs on defending Hawaii.

July 4 could be another day that will live in infamy. The Obama administration seized headlines June 18 when the Defense Department stated that the United States would deploy ground- and sea-based missile-defense assets to protect Hawaii. This was a response to North Korea's threat to launch a long-range missile on July 4 toward the islands. However, new information suggests that the administration is bluffing and our defenses are inadequate to get the job done.

Read more ....

Target: Hawaii -- Wall Street Journal

Missile defenses for Oahu, but cuts for the rest of us.

The Pentagon recently announced that it is repositioning ground-to-air radar and missile defenses near Hawaii in case North Korea decides to launch another long-range missile, this time toward the Aloha State. So at least 1.3 million Hawaiians will benefit from defenses that many officials in the current Administration didn't even want to build.

Read more ....

My Comment: When the missile defense program started in the 1980s, critics labeled it as a waste of money .... and that it would produce negligible benefits. 25 years and 100 billion dollars later, the U.S. missile defense program has revolutionized missile technologies as well as non-ballistic anti-missile technologies, and it has changed the geopolitical landscape because of its preliminary successes and steady progress.

But even with this background, President Obama and his Congressional allies have made it very clear that they want the program dead. Will they succeed .... they are certainly a few steps away from a complete shutdown.

U.S., U.K. Struggle With Force Balance for “Hybrid War”

Reaper MQ-9

From War Is Boring:

The American and British militaries tend to fight wars together, as in Iraq and Afghanistan. That means both organizations struggle with the same problems — and usually propose the same answers. The U.S. and the U.K. are both trying to balance today’s, surprisingly lethal, counter-insurgency fights with the distant prospect of major, state-on-state warfare, all in a context of rising costs and shrinking budgets.

In the U.S., Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is pushing hard to shrink conventional forces, tailored for big wars, in favor of forces optimized for today’s, small wars. But he’s mindful that it’s not an either-or question. We need “big” and “small” forces, Gates said. Increasingly, we’ll even need them, at the same time, for the same, unpredictable conflicts. The balance is the question.

Read more ....

My Comment: The key is to find that balance between having the resources to fight the big war, and the small wars .... if that is possible.

Pakistan Plays Dangerous Double Game

Men place the coffin of commander Qari Zainuddin in a grave in Dera Ismail Khan, located in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. Reuters

From The Independent:

The assassin struck shortly after morning prayers, storming into a room at the compound where Qari Zainuddin was staying and opening up with a volley of fire. The militant leader was rushed to a nearby hospital but declared dead. Meanwhile, the gunman - apparently dispatched by Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud - escaped in a waiting car.

The following day, in a cemetery of Muslim and Christian graves encircled by fields of maize, the 26-year-old, who in recent months had pitched himself against Mr Mehsud, was buried. The militant leader's funeral was notable for two things. Firstly the town was filled with checkposts manned by both Taliban and Pakistani security personnel. Secondly, when the dead man's brother, Misabhuddin, vowed to reporters that he would take revenge against Mr Mehsud, he also let slip something else. "Jihad against America and its allies in Afghanistan will continue as well," he said.

Read more ....

My Comment: This analysis from The independent hits it on the nail when it comes to examining Pakistan's and U.S. priorities and objectives in this war. This article is a must read.

Pakistan Civil War Updates -- June 29, 2009

Pakistan Conflict Map.
Image from The BBC

Pakistan Treads Warily as New Fight Looms -- Washington Post

Preliminary Efforts Against Fighters in Tribal Waziristan Yield Mixed Results

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, June 28 -- More than 70 years ago, the British army went to war against tribal forces loyal to a charismatic religious figure in what is now the Pakistani region of Waziristan. The ensuing guerrilla conflict lasted more than a decade. The British troops, though far more numerous and better armed, never captured the renegade leader and finally withdrew from the region.

Today, the Pakistani army is preparing to launch a major operation against another warrior in Waziristan, the ruthless Islamist commander Baitullah Mehsud. Taking a lesson from history and its own recent failures, the army is attempting to isolate and weaken Mehsud before sending its troops into battle.

Read more ....

More News On Pakistan

Pakistan Broadens Taliban Fight -- Wall Street Journal
Violence across NW Pakistan kills dozens -- Yahoo News/AP
Western Pakistan Fighting Kills 50 -- Voice of America
12 soldiers killed in Taliban ambush -- Belfast Telegraph
Swat operation likely to end in few days: Pakistan army -- China view
Pakistani forces "clearing last Taliban from Swat" -- Reuters
Attacks Increase as Pakistan Military Pursues Top Militants -- Voice of America
Pakistan Rejects Talks With Militants Amid Offensive -- Bloomberg
The high price of eliminating the Taleban from Buner -- Times Online
Pakistan offers reward for capture of Baitullah Mehsud -- the Telegraph
Money for the Taliban -- Dawn
US helping secure Pak's nuke arsenal at cost of USD 100 million -- The Hindu
Pakistanis begin to rebuild lives -- L.A. Times

An Analysis And Commentary On The UAE's Defense Buildup

UAE’s Mighty Shield -- The National

The United Arab Emirates has achieved an inordinate amount in a very short time. From desert sands a modern metropolis is emerging that will rank among the leading financial, cultural, medical and business centres in the world.

It is natural to want to protect such gains to ensure they can be enjoyed by generations to come.

But if history has anything to teach us, it is that the future is always unpredictable. While we have enjoyed an extended period of peace and prosperity, the region in which we live remains fragile: Iraq is rebuilding after years of devastation, Iran, with its nuclear ambitions, is in domestic turmoil following controversial elections, Israel and its relations with the Palestinian people remain an open sore and a power-greedy world observes our oil and gas reserves with a jealous eye.

Read more ....

My Comment: They may have the money to buy these weapon systems .... but do the men have the professional background and training to handle it. Let us hope that we never find out.

Afghanistan War News Updates -- June 29, 2009

An aerial view of Kandahar, Afghanistan Photo: REUTERS

Karzai: Afghan Guards Employed By US Killed Police -- Yahoo News/AP

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan – President Hamid Karzai accused Afghan guards working for U.S. coalition forces of killing a provincial police chief and at least four other security officers during a gunbattle outside a government office Monday.

In a harshly worded statement, Karzai demanded that coalition forces hand over the guards involved. But the governor of Kandahar later said 41 private security guards connected to the incident had been disarmed and arrested by Afghan authorities.

Read more ....

More News On The Afghan War

Afghan guards arrested over police chief shooting -- The Telegraph
Karzai Blames Coalition in Police Official’s Death -- New York Times
Afghan police chief killed in Kandahar: officials -- Yahoo News/AFP
41 personnel of private company arrested for involving in killing police in Afghanistan -- China View
Top officials killed in Kandahar -- Globe And Mail
3 dozen killed in Afghanistan -- Daily Times
FACTBOX-Security developments in Afghanistan, June 29 -- Reuters
AFGHANISTAN: 800 civilians killed in conflict in January-May – UN report -- Reuters
Fewer civilian deaths crucial in Afghanistan -- USA Today
Iraq lessons learned, US Marines turn to Afghanistan -- Reuters
Make or break in Helmand war -- Mirror.co.uk
Unleashing Special Forces In Afghanistan -- Strategy Page
Britain to continue poppy eradication in Afghanistan despite US reversal -- The Telegraph
Britain and US at odds over opium field eradication plan -- Irish independent
Violence delays mine clearing in Afghanistan -- Yahoo News/AP
Russia ready for more NATO cargo transits to Afghanistan -- RIA Movosti
Afghanistan: The Troubles With Traditions -- Strategy Page
Afghan women battle heavy odds in struggle for freedom, dignity. -- Canada.com
What an air strike in Afghanistan should look like -- Nukes And Spooks