Will The Current Asian Arms Race Prevent War?

DNYUZ/New York Times: An Anxious Asia Arms for a War It Hopes to Prevent 

The tiny island of Tinian was the launch point for American planes carrying atomic bombs to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Now a new runway is being carved from the jungle, just south of World War II ruins inked with mildew. 

And on a blustery February morning a few hundred yards away at Tinian’s civilian airport, American airmen refueled Japanese fighter jets during a military exercise using more airstrips, islands and Japanese planes than the two enemies-turned-allies have ever mustered for drills in the North Pacific. 

“We’re not concerned with the past, we are concerned with the future,” said Col. Inadome Satoru, commander of Japan’s 9th Air Wing Flight Group. “We can ensure stability by showing strength.”  

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WNU Editor: These concerns are justified .... Why Asia’s arms race risks spinning out of control (CNN).

The Asia-Pacific Arms Race Is Intensifying

(L-R) JS Asayuki, HMAS Ballarat, HMAS Adelaide, JS Umigiri and HMAS Success in formation on approach to Sydney Heads during Exercise NICHI GOU TRIDENT.

Alex Gatopoulos, Al Jazeera: Analysis: The Asia-Pacific arms race has taken an ominous turn

As China increases its military might and trust in US alliances erode, Australia and Japan are going on the offensive.

Within days of each other, two key United States allies - Australia and Japan - announced their intentions to boost defence spending and adopt a more aggressive military posture. Rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region account for what is being called a "game-changer" in the way the two countries think about protecting themselves from China's rapid military expansion.

Australia's announcement in late June that it would boost defence spending over the next decade by 40 percent caught most observers by surprise. Prime Minister Scott Morrison stated clearly that the world post-COVID-19 will be "poorer, more dangerous and more disorderly" and that the country needed to be prepared for any eventuality.

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WNU Editor: This "arms race" in Asia has been happening for a very long time. It is only in the past few years that everyone has realized on how committed China is in building its military, and to use it in asserting its territorial claims. In short. Countries like Australia and Japan are a few years late in the game, but they are catching up .... Australia and Japan to sign space deal, discuss deeper security ties (Sydney Morning Herald).

China's Submarine Lead In Asia Is Growing

Many Asian navies have plans to acquire new submarines in the next ten years, often expanding their overall fleet strength. Many of these designs are indigenous. But China's lead, relative to the rest, could grow. H I Sutton

Forbes: China's Submarine Lead In Asia Could Grow By 2030

Submarines are the hot asset among Asian countries right now, with ~239 in service with the region’s navies. Almost every navy is acquiring new types. If we look ahead 10 years the submarine landscape in the region will be very different. And by 2030 China could have more than twice as many as any other other Asian country.

The total number of submarines will likely drop to around 220. More on why later. But this headline drop in numbers hides the greater trend which is one of expansion and modernization of submarine forces.

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WNU Editor: There is an arms race in Asia that China is "winning". Submarines are part of that "race".

An Undeclared Submarine Arms Race Is Underway In Asia

Forbes: Undeclared Submarine Arms Race Takes Hold In Asia

Since its inception at the turn of the 20th century, the submarine has been the ace asymmetrical weapon. It has allowed smaller navies to stand up to the most powerful, and the powerful ones stay on top. Today, arguably, they are the most potent weapon platform on the planet. (Aircraft carrier fans may disagree!) And almost every navy in Asia wants them.

When we talk about submarine arms races in Asia, the big players are China, Australia, Japan and India. And the list goes on: Pakistan, South Korea and Singapore all have high-tech submarine capabilities. But there is another less discussed submarine revolution taking place. Virtually all the smaller navies in the region are also building up submarine capabilities. This is the part of an undeclared arms race which is changing the shape of the submarine threat worldwide.

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WNU Editor: Submarines are not the only weapons systems that are fuelling an arms race in Asia .... This Is Why Military Spending Is Soaring In The Asia-Pacific Region (June 8, 2019).

China Reacts To U.S. Announcement Of Deploying Intermediate Range Missiles In Asia

If the US really deploys Intermediate-range missile in Asia, it will inevitably trigger an intense arms race. Arms race is full of uncertainties, but it will only have one result. That is China will have a strategic weapons arsenal on par with that of the US. https://t.co/jM6JzaeQIE

— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) August 4, 2019

Zero Hedge: "New Cold War" Unleashing "Geopolitical Chaos": China Reacts To US Offensive Missiles In Asia

China's Global Times — the communist country's hawkish, belligerent state tabloid — has responded to the Pentagon's Friday announcement stating the US is looking to deploy intermediate range ballistic missiles to Asia "within months," warning "it will certainly trigger an intense arms race in the region."

Its editorial board, long understood as a mouthpiece of the state, has slammed remarks made by US Defense Secretary Mark Esper outlining the new mid-range ballistic missile deployment plans, crucially which came immediately on the heels of the formal collapse of the landmark US-Russia INF treaty, saying American greed and naked drive for hegemony will spark a dangerously unprecedented arms race which will fuel further "instability" across Asia.

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WNU Editor: I have been telling my friends and contacts in China for years that if they continued with their military buildup and aggressive territorial demands, there will be a backlash. The Chinese are now learning what that backlash is. A trade war and an arms race.

This Is Why Military Spending Is Soaring In The Asia-Pacific Region

Kelvin Wong, a defense analyst for Jane's, poses in front of an attack helicopter during training for the Singapore Armed Forces in Queensland, Australia. (Singaporean Ministry of Defense)

David Pierson, L.A. Times: Military spending is soaring in the Asia-Pacific region. Here’s why

The Asia-Pacific region is one of the fastest-growing markets for arms dealers.

Economic growth, territorial disputes and long-sought military modernizations there propelled a 52% increase in defense spending over the last decade to $392 billion in 2018, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The region accounts for more than a fifth of the global defense budget and is expected to grow. That was underscored this week by news of Taiwan’s bid to strike a $2-billion deal to purchase U.S. tanks and missiles.

The biggest driver in arms purchases, however, is China — responsible for 64% of military spending in the region. With a defense budget that is second only to the U.S., China is amassing a navy that can circle the globe and developing state-of-the-art autonomous drones. The buildup is motivating surrounding countries to bolster their armed forces too — good news for purveyors of submarines, unmanned vehicles and warplanes.

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WNU Editor: China is driving everyone to boost their defense budgets.

Analysts Warn That Japan's Purchase Of F-35s Will Fuel An Arms Race With China

Japan’s F-35 fleet will be the largest of any US ally. Photo: AFP

SCMP: Japan’s deal to buy F-35 Lightning jets from US ‘may fuel arms race with China in region’

* Donald Trump has welcomed Tokyo’s order for the stealth fighter, but it is likely to trigger a response from Beijing
* Deal to buy 105 of the advanced fighters will greatly expand Japan’s capabilities in the South China Sea

Japan’s decision to buy 105 F-35 Lightning jet fighters from the United States may further fuel the arms race in Asia, analysts have warned.

The deal, first announced in December, was confirmed on Monday during US President Donald Trump’s four-day state visit to Japan.

Japan “has just announced its intent to purchase 105 brand new F-35 stealth aircraft. Stealth, because, the fact is you can’t see them”, Trump said at Japan’s Akasaka Palace. “This purchase would give Japan the largest F-35 fleet of any US ally.”

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WNU Editor: China has been engaged in one of the largest military buildups and modernizations in history, but Japan is to be blamed for an arms race because they are buying 105 F-35 fighters? Who are these analyst?

Is China The Reason Why Many Countries In Asia Are Buying the F-35?

The Air Self-Defense Force’s F-35A fighter jet is shown at Misawa Air Base in Aomori Prefecture in February. Pool photo/The Yomiuri Shimbun

FoxTrot Alpha: China Says It's Not the Reason Countries Are Buying the F-35 (It Totally Is)

Countries across the Asia-Pacific are not—repeat not—buying the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter because of China. That’s from China’s hawkish Global Times—an arm of the newspaper run by the Communist Party of China—which assured readers this week that, while they may read stories that Australia, Japan, South Korea, and now Singapore are all purchasing America’s newest stealth fighter, it has totally nothing to do with them.

The result is an interesting look at how the region views China’s rapidly expanding defense budget and an increasingly brash and powerful Beijing—and how that news gets spun within China itself.

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WNU Editor: China is the reason why there is currently a massive arms race occurring in Asia today .... An Asian Arms Race Is Underway (January 30, 2018).

Arms Race Surges In Both Asia And Africa

Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force ships and US Navy ships take part in an exercise. Defense spending is growing rapidly in the region. Photo: AFP/Michael Russell/US Navy

Andrew Salmon, Asia Times: Northeast Asia arms race surges in 2019

While South Korea's arms budget focuses on the North Korean threat, massive Japanese spending looks aimed at both China and North Korea.

As China massively upgrades its power projection abilities with naval and naval air assets, and North Korea retains its nuclear and missile capabilities despite the diplomatic breakthroughs of 2018, Northeast Asia’s democracies Japan and South Korea are also muscling up.

It is unclear how far 2019’s defense budgets are driven by their urge to deter potential enemies, and how far by the unpredictable status of alliances under the Donald Trump administration.

A further complication is the administration’s aggressive moves to cut trade deficits with Asian economies: Defense equipment is expensive, and the US remains the “arsenal of democracy.”

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WNU Editor: If I was an arms merchant. The future is in Africa .... African arms market to grow by 50 pct over five years: analyst (AFP).

A Look At Asia's Flash Points And Arms Races In 2019

The Diplomat: Flashpoints and Arms Races to Watch in 2019

Will 2019 see an increased chance for military confrontation in Asia?

The 2019 security outlook for Asia, as in past years, is dominated by a number of regional flashpoints that include the Korean Peninsula, the South and East China Seas, as well as the Taiwan Strait, all of which have the potential to trigger a military confrontation. Nonetheless, there appears to be a reduced risk for open military clashes in all of the four cases in the next 12 months.

Simultaneously, 2019 will likely see an intensification of the war in Afghanistan, amid ongoing peace negotiations and the suggested withdrawal of 7,000 U.S. troops from the country; the presidential election scheduled for the spring may be postponed. Other areas our readers should watch include: a possible uptick in violence in Jammu and Kashmir as a result of the 2019 Indian general elections, the usual chance of South Asian border disputes getting out of control, and increased naval competition between India, China, and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean. Naval competition is especially noteworthy as all three states are in the process of fielding, or already have deployed, nuclear-armed submarines.

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WNU Editor: The world has seen many arms races in its history, but I think there is a very real possibility that in the next decade Asia will dwarf all past arms races .... including what happened during the Cold War. What does not help the situation is the history and cultures of the region. While culturally Asia is very old, politically they are still immature. They do not have the alliances and safeguards that Europe and the U.S. have put in place since the Second World War that has kept (more or less) the peace in Europe. Absent these political and international structures in Asia, there is no way that flash points and disputes can be brokered amicably and without the use of violence. And while past conflicts were limited, today's advanced weaponry and destructive capabilities can make a small border conflict escalate into something far bigger and devastating. In the middle of all of this is China. They want to be the super power in Asia. Will they use their military dominance to achieve this .... that is a question that still remains unanswered.

U.S. Sending Billions Worth Of Spy Planes To Japan And South Korea

US Navy P-8 Poseidon

Breaking Defense: U.S. Sending Billions Worth of P-8s, E-2Ds To Asian Allies

Japan and South Korea are getting new generations of sub-hunting and intelligence-gathering aircraft as China, North Korea, and Russia continue to push more assets into the waters of the Pacific.

WASHINGTON: The State Department has approved the $2.6 billion sale of six P-8A Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft and 64 Patriot anti-ballistic missile weapons to South Korea. It’s another sign that U.S. allies are stocking up on American military tech to counter China, while hedging against North Korea.

The Boeing-made Poseidon, used primarily for hunting submarines and flying reconnaissance missions over large swaths of ocean, will give the South Korean military a new capability in tracking North Korean submarines, which have harassed shipping in the region. In 2010, a suspected North Korean midget submarine sunk the Cheonan, a South Korean corvette, killing 46 seamen.

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WNU Editor: The Asian arms race continues.

Southeast Asia’s Arms Race Continues

Felix Heiduk, East Asia Forum/Asia Sentinel: Southeast Asia’s Arms Race

While countries in many parts of the world are reducing their military spending, Southeast Asian countries are bucking the trend. Total defense spending of ASEAN states doubled over the last 15 years in absolute terms, with countries like Indonesia and Thailand witnessing military expenditure growth rates of 10 percent on a year-by-year basis.

Tightly interlinked with this rise in defense spending is an increase in arms procurements. Several Southeast Asian countries are going on arms spending sprees and buying new frigates, tanks, helicopters, fighter jets and submarines. Vietnam’s arms imports increased by almost 700 percent over the last decade, shifting Hanoi from the world’s 43rd largest arms buyer to the top 10.

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WNU Editor: China's South China Sea claims has spooked almost everyone. And here is an easy prediction .... this arms buildup is not going to stop in the foreseeable future.

An Asian Arms Race Is Underway

Map of Asia from The Economist

South China Morning Post editorial: Arms race in Asia is cause for concern

It’s not only North Korea that is expanding its weapons programme; the scene is playing out across the continent, making it even more imperative that nations establish reliable mechanisms for dialogue to avoid accidental conflict.

North Korea has grabbed attention with its weapons development programme. But less noticed has been the rush across Asia to test and deploy missiles by nations that are either nuclear-capable or easily able to obtain such armaments.

There is no better indicator of the arms race under way as a result of the region’s uncertainties. The proliferation is aimed at deterrence, although the deployment and stockpiling also increases tensions and the risk of a miscalculation that could lead to military conflict.

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WNU Editor: China's territorial ambitions combined with North Korea's missile and nuclear programs has created the perfect environment for an arms race. And no one in Asia is having a discussion on the "how and why" this should be stopped.

There Is A Massive Arms Race Building Between China And Its Neighbours

China's Liaoning aircraft carrier with accompanying fleet conducts a drill in the South China Sea Reuters

Kim Sengupta, The Independent: An arms race is building between China and its neighbours as the world focuses on Trump and North Korea spat

While Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un traded public insults, Beijing has been quietly bolstering its military presence on islands in the South China Sea

Japan used to have one of the most powerful aircraft carrier forces in the world, with a fleet of six. The US had seven, but the Imperial Japanese Navy was close to taking delivery of two more, gaining a decisive strategic advantage when the Second World War broke out.

Four years later, the Japanese carrier fleet was at the bottom of the ocean, Emperor Hirohito had signed the surrender document and the Imperial Navy was disbanded. The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force was later formed, but with strict defensive rules of engagement.

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WNU Editor: The arms race in Asia is one of those stories that deserves far more attention than what it has been receiving.

Can China Afford An Arms Race Against The U.S.?

Photo: World Affairs Board

Salvatore Babones, National Interest: China Can't Afford to Keep Challenging America on Military Spending

A more modest Chinese military footprint will likely emerge in 2017 or 2018.

China's Budget Starts to Bite

China plans a 7 percent boost to military spending in 2017. Even that may be more than it can afford.

On Saturday, China announced a 2017 spending growth target of 7 percent in nominal yuan terms. That represents a real yuan increase of less than 5 percent. Or, assuming that the People’s Liberation Army buys its tanks wholesale, applying China’s current producer price inflation index of 6.9 percent leaves no growth at all.

In 2016, China’s official military spending rose 7.6 percent. Adjusted for inflation, that’s barely 5 percent. In U.S. dollar terms, it’s barely 3 percent. In real U.S. dollar terms, adjusted for inflation, it’s hardly any increase at all. Put simply, China’s defense spending is essentially flat.

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WNU Editor: Their finances are getting squeezed .... but a 7% boost in military spending is still huge.

China Warns Of An Arms Race Over The Deployment Of A U.S. Antimissile System

Washington Post: China warns of ‘consequences’ over deployment of U.S. antimissile system

BEIJING — China warned Tuesday of “consequences” for South Korea over the deployment of a U.S. antimissile system, raising regional tension and questions about China’s commitment to free, open trade.

The U.S. military began deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to South Korea on Monday, the same day North Korea launched four missiles that landed off the Japanese coast.

The United States and South Korea say the system is a necessary defense against Kim Jong Un’s regime, but Beijing rejects the plan.

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More News On China Warning Of An Arms Race Over The Deployment Of A U.S. Antimissile System

China Warns of Arms Race After US Deploys Missile Defense in South Korea -- New York Times
China vows `resolute´ measures after THAAD deployment -- AFP
Anger in China as THAAD missile defence system starts arriving in South Korea -- Sydney Morning Herald
China Warns of 'Consequences' Amid US THAAD Deployment to S Korea -- Sputnik
China threatens more retaliation as Seoul, Washington start THAAD deployment -- Korea Herald
THAAD Deployment Begins Amid Increasing Tensions Between China and South Korea -- VOA
THAAD Missile Defenses Deploy To South Korea: How Will North Korea, China React? -- Breaking Defense
THAAD deployment threat stokes US tensions with Beijing, Moscow -- FOX News
Tougher tactics needed against Pyongyang but arms race could result, say experts -- Straits Times
China Threatens US, S. Korea Over Trump’s Sudden Missile Defense Moves [VIDEO] -- Daily Caller

Asia's Arms Race Will Soon Match U.S. Spending By 2020

Popular Mechanics: Asia's Military Spending Will Match U.S. Spending by 2020

​China, and countries fearing China, are raising defense spending.​

The Asia-Pacific Region will spend $533 billion on defense annually by 2020. That's very close to what the United States spends on defense, and a lot more than the region used to. Bloomberg reports that China and countries squaring off against China are responsible for the unprecedented surge.

The People's Republic of China has been increasing defense spending about 10 percent annually for more than two decades. Although dramatic, for most of the 90s and aughts, it still left the impression that China was militarily weak: In 1989, it spent only ten times more on its military than New Zealand and hadn't been involved in a shooting war for decades.

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WNU Editor: And this trend is not going to stop beyond 2020.

Are We About To Witness A Nuclear Arms Race In East Asia?

Andrei Lankov, Al Jazeera: A nuclear arms race in East Asia?

It is a place where most nations deeply distrust their neighbours, and where old-style nationalism still reigns supreme.

Recently, news from the Korean Peninsula has been dominated by missiles: as satellite images confirmed, the North Koreans have been busy preparing another test launch of "BM-25 Musudan", their intermediate-range missile.

The launch ended in failure, the fourth such failure in this year. Nonetheless, North Korean engineers and scientists are busy developing both long-range and submarine-based ballistic missiles, capable of hitting the United States.

There has been much hype about the recent Musudan launch, but few people noticed another piece of news that came from South Korea a week earlier.

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WNU Editor: For the moment .... with the U.S. commitment to Asian defence still strong .... I do not see an East Asia nuclear arms race .... but I do see the development of weapons platforms that can easily be switched from conventional to nuclear payloads. But .... if the U.S. military does leave East Asia, and U.S. security commitments for the region are in doubt .... both South Korea and Japan will develop a nuclear arsenal .... and fast.

The Asian Arms Build-Up

ATLANTIC OCEAN (Sept. 23, 2014 ) The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) leads a formation of ships from Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 12 during a maneuvering exercise. Theodore Roosevelt participated in the exercise with the Peruvian submarine BAP Islay (SS 35), the guided-missile destroyers USS Winston Churchill (DDG 81), USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98), USS Farragut (DDG 99) and the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60). Theodore Roosevelt is underway preparing for future deployments.

David Tweed and Mira Rojanasakul, Bloomberg: The Great Asian Arms Buildup

China’s Military Expansion, South China Sea to Dominate Shangri-La Dialogue

The 15th Shangri-La Dialogue kicks off in Singapore on June 3, with a keynote speech by Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha. The region's most prestigious defense meeting gathers military leaders from around the globe to discuss security and defense policy.

This year talks are likely to be dominated again by discussions of the South China Sea disputes ahead of an arbitration ruling on China’s claims to the waters expected mid-year. Combating terrorism and cyber-warfare will also be on the agenda.

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WNU Editor: A good summary on the arms build-up that is now occurring in Asia.

There Is An Asian Arms Race That Is Underwater

A Japanese Soryu-class submarine. Japan had hoped to win the Australian navy contract with this boat. (Courtesy of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force)

Adm James Stavridis, Nikkei Asian Review -- Asia's arms race dives underwater

The ocean depths of the Pacific are becoming crowded in the latest stage of Asia's arms race, as the region's military powers rapidly increase their submarine fleets and deploy the very latest technology.

Australia's decision to buy 12 highly advanced diesel-powered submarines from France's well-regarded defense contractor DCNS is the latest example. The 4,700-ton Shortfin Barracuda boats will cost nearly $40 billion, but will allow Canberra, a key U.S. ally, to double the size of its underwater fleet and add significant extra firepower.

The decision comes at an opportune moment; many of the most senior U.S. admirals in the Pacific Fleet are very concerned about the rapid improvement in Chinese subsurface capability and the United States Navy has taken steps in recent years to mitigate it.

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WNU Editor: What strikes me about the current arms race in Asia is that there are no signs that it may slow down.