Is The Era Of Total U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China Ending?

Wall Street Journal: Era of Total U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China Is Ending 

New Chinese submarines and sensors to catch U.S. subs will alter the balance of power 

For decades, the U.S. hasn’t had to worry much about China’s submarines. They were noisy and easy to track. The Chinese military, meanwhile, struggled to detect America’s ultraquiet submarines. 

Now, China is narrowing one of the biggest gaps separating the U.S. and Chinese militaries as it makes advances in its submarine technology and undersea detection capabilities, with major implications for American military planning for a potential conflict over Taiwan. 

Early this year, China put to sea a nuclear-powered attack submarine with a pump-jet propulsion system instead of a propeller, satellite imagery showed. It was the first time noise-reducing technology used on the latest American submarines had been seen on a Chinese submarine. 

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WNU Editor: The U.S. still is ahead (see below). But time is on China's side.

Did A Chinese Nuclear Submarine Crash In The Taiwan Strait?

Unconfirmed rumors that a Chinese nuclear-power submarine crashed near the vicinity of the disputed Taiwan Strait have been circulating online (file photo) 

Daily Mail: Taiwan denies reports that a Chinese nuclear sub has crashed near the Taiwan Strait 

* Unconfirmed rumors that a Chinese nuclear-power submarine crashed near the vicinity of the disputed Taiwan Strait have been circulating online 

* Reports on Tuesday said that a Type 093 (Shang class) submarine had a major accident, killing everyone aboard 

* The Taiwan military claimed there is no evidence to indicate a Chinese submarine collision and Beijing has not confirmed the incident 

Taiwan officials have denied reports that a Chinese nuclear sub crashed near the disputed Taiwan Strait. 

Rumors have circulated that a Type 093 (Shang class) People's Liberation Army nuclear-powered attack submarine had crashed in unknown circumstances at some point in the past few days, killing everyone aboard. 

The reports came just days after China launched military drills near Taiwan intended to serve as a 'stern warning' against colluding with 'foreign elements'.  

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 Did A Chinese Nuclear Submarine Crash In The Taiwan Strait?  

Has a Chinese Submarine Crashed in the Taiwan Strait? What We Know -- Newsweek  

Has a Chinese nuclear submarine crashed near the Taiwan Strait? What we know -- First Post  

Chinese submarine crash rumor unsubstantiated: MND -- Taipei Times  

Taipei Denies Reports That China's Shang Class Submarine Crashed in Taiwan Strait -- IBTimes  

Has A Chinese Nuclear Sub Sunk Near Taiwan Strait? Beijing Silent About Rumors -- IBTimes 

Row erupts as Chinese nuclear sub 'crashes' near disputed waters -- Express

Is China On The Verge Of Producing ‘World-Class’ Nuclear Submarines?

EurAsian Times: PLA Navy’s ‘Sharks’ Get Stealthier, China On Verge Of Producing ‘World-Class’ Nuclear Submarines – US Naval War College 

It is well known that the Chinese Navy has numerical supremacy over the navies of other countries. However, a recently released report says that after five decades since it inducted its first nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarine (SSN), the People’s Liberation Army – Navy (PLA-N) is on the verge of producing “world-class” nuclear submarines with its propulsion, quieting, sensors and weapons capabilities approaching that of Russian Akula -I class SSN. 

Acoustic stealth is one of the salient attributes of modern submarines. The quietness of the design is seldom revealed, but the assumption can be safely made that Chinese submarines are increasingly becoming stealthier. 

The report released by the US Naval War College assesses that this giant leap in technology will have “profound implications” for US undersea security.  

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WNU Editor: Chinese subs have a long history of being easy to detect .... China's Noisy Subs Get Busier -- And Easier to Track (Wired). But it looks like Russian cooperation and help is changing the situation .... China And Russia In Mysterious New Submarine Project (Forbes).

China Is Now Keeping At Least One Nuclear-Armed Ballistic Missile Submarine Constantly At Sea

China’s Type 94 Jin-class ballistic missile submarine. (Wikipedia) 

Reuters: ANALYSIS-China's intensifying nuclear-armed submarine patrols add complexity for U.S., allies 

HONG KONG, April 4 (Reuters) - China is for the first time keeping at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea, according to a Pentagon report - adding pressure on the United States and its allies as they try to counter Beijing's growing military. 

The assessment of China's military said China's fleet of six Jin-class ballistic missile submarines were operating "near-continuous" patrols from Hainan Island into the South China Sea. Equipped with a new, longer-range ballistic missile, they can hit the continental United States, analysts say. 

The note in the 174-page report drew little attention when it was released in late November, but shows crucial improvements in Chinese capabilities, according to four regional military attaches familiar with naval operations and five other security analysts.  

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WNU editor: Keeping at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea is a major step for China. But it does not stop there. It looks like China's nuclear armed subs can now do this .... 1st Time Ever! China Can Now Strike The ‘Heart Of US’ By Submarine-Launched JL-3 Missile From Its Coastal Waters (EurAsian Times).

U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander: Chinese New Missiles On Its Submarines Were Built to Threaten The U.S.

A new type of nuclear submarine of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is reviewed during a naval parade staged to mark the 70th founding anniversary of the PLA Navy on the sea off Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province, on April 23, 2019. Photo: Xinhua  

FOX News: China increases ability to strike U.S. with sub-carried missiles  

U.S. Pacific Fleet leader says China's new missiles can reach U.S. from its own waters. 

China has a new missile loaded onto submarines that can strike the continental U.S. from the South China Sea, according to reports. 

U.S. Navy Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of the U.S. Pacific Fleet told a group of military reporters in Washington on Friday that China’s Jin-class submarines are "equipped with JL-3 intercontinental ballistic missiles," Bloomberg reported. 

"They were built to threaten the United States," the admiral said. "We keep close track of those submarines."  

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Update: China deploys JL-3 ballistic missiles on its Type 094 submarines (Navy Recognition). 

WNU Editor: China says US concerns are exaggerated .... US hypes China's JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile deployment 'with ulterior motives' (Global Times).

India believes this nuclear missile deployment targets them .... China’s JL-3 missile can’t cover the US mainland. But it has implications for India (The Print).

Satellite Images Show A Possible New Class Of Chinese Nuclear Submarine

A rare satellite image of a Chinese shipyard could show a new nuclear-powered hunter-killer attack submarine, military analysts have said  

Daily Mail: Rare satellite image 'shows new nuclear-powered hunter-killer attack submarine' in Chinese dry dock 

* A vessel docked in the Huludao Port in China could be a new nuclear submarine 

* China is said to be preparing submarines with vertical launch missile tubes 

* Vertical launch tubes would arm the 093 subs with more guided missiles 

A rare satellite image of a Chinese shipyard has revealed a new nuclear-powered hunter-killer attack submarine, military analysts have claimed. 

A Pentagon report in November said the People's Liberation Army Navy was preparing new attack submarines with vertical launch tubes for cruise missiles, possibly based on the existing Type 093 submarine. 

Images obtained by Reuters from private satellite imagery provider Planet Labs and others circulating on social media show the submarine in a dry dock in Huludao Port in Liaoning province.  

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Satellite Images Show A Possible New Class Of Chinese Nuclear Submarine 

Satellite images raise prospect of new class of Chinese submarine -- Reuters  

China's New Nuclear Submarine May Just Have Been Revealed -- Newsweek  

Satellite images suggest China may have developed new class of nuclear-powered submarine -- FOX News

China Increasing Its Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity

Photo: Via Sinodefence.com 

USNI News: Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity 

As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. Historically the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear-powered submarine fleet has been constrained by its limited construction capacity. There is only one shipyard in the country up to the task. But that yard has been undergoing a massive enlargement. And now, recent satellite imagery suggests an additional capacity expansion. 

China’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet was already expected to get much larger in the coming years. This latest development suggests that China could pump out submarines at an even greater rate. 

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WNU Editor: The Chinese leadership clearly have big goals when it comes to their submarine fleet.

Satellite Image Shows A Chinese Nuclear Submarine Entering A Mysterious Cave Facility At A South China Sea Base

Warzone/The Drive: Image Shows Chinese Submarine Entering Mysterious Cave Facility At South China Sea Base

The rare satellite image shows a Chinese nuclear submarine entering into the mysterious submarine cave system at Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island.

China's massive Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island is one of the greatest strategic interests in the region. It is home to China's nuclear ballistic missile submarine fleet—the backbone of its second-strike deterrent—as well as other submarines. It sits at the northern edge of the highly contentious South China Sea. To its east is the gateway to the open Pacific and Taiwan. The most intriguing feature of this facility is the mysterious submarine cave built into the side of a mountain that dominates the southern end of the installation. Although I have seen satellite images of the roadway barges removed from the opening, we have never seen one with a submarine actually using it, until now.

You can read all about Yulin Naval Base, its submarine cave, and the very high level of strategic interest the U.S. and allied regional players put on it in this past article of ours.

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WNU Editor: This is so "James Bond".

Chinese Submarines May Become A Permanent Fixture In The Indian Ocean

For Chinese submarines, the relevant routes into the Indian Ocean are the Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait. H I Sutton

Forbes: Chinese Navy Submarines Could Become A Reality In Indian Ocean

The Chinese Navy is rapidly pursuing global capabilities. A key area of future operations may be the Indian Ocean. Chinese submarines in particular could have a strategic impact if they were roaming those waters. From China’s standpoint this would protect vital sea lanes which will be vulnerable in any war. Naturally many of the world’s navies would be concerned if this were the case. Chief among them is the Indian Navy which currently has the largest submarine fleet in the South Asia region.

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WNU Editor: The Chinese navy does have the facilities in the Indian Ocean to take care of its navy when it is in the Indian Ocean (see above image).

China's New Generation Of Larger Nuclear Submarines Reveals Its Global Ambitions

Forbes: Chinese Navy Steps Closer To New Generation Of Nuclear Submarines

New evidence at the Bohai shipyard in China points to the construction of the next generation of nuclear submarines for the Chinese Navy (known as the PLAN). While many have argued that the new Type 095 and 096 subs will be built there, it is only now that the infrastructure is largely ready. The new submarines will be important if the PLAN wishes to patrol the open Pacific, or routinely venture into the Indian Ocean. Analysis of commercial imagery shows a new launch barge has recently been completed at the site. From an intelligence standpoint, this is an important indicator.

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WNU Editor: Analysis true ....

.... Of course the new submarines are expected to have the latest in Chinese sonar and weapons. But the biggest capability leap might be a larger crew. This will enable much longer patrols because, despite ever-improving automation, crew fatigue remains a major constraint for at-sea endurance. So these bigger boats are seen as a step in the journey for a PLAN with global ambitions.

Comparing American And Chinese Nuclear Missile Submarines

Reuters

National Interest: How Do America and China's Newest Nuclear Missile Submarines Compare?

They are both getting more and more advanced.

While there is likely little known about the exact technological make-up of the emerging Chinese Jin-class SSBN, it might not rival the emerging U.S. Columbia-class submarine. After all, the new, now-in-development Columbia class may be the quietest undersea boat ever to exist. It uses a quiet, efficient electric-drive and a differently configured X-shaped stern, among other technologies.

What is known about the Chinese Jin-class is that it will be armed with the extremely lethal, 5,600 mile range nuclear-armed ballistic JL-3 missiles, according to a May 2020 Congressional Research Service Report called “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities.” Moreover, a 2018 CSIS report states the Chinese have already test-fired the weapon which, by any estimation, could easily hold the continental U.S. at great risk.

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WNU Editor: The U.S. is modernizing its fleet. The Chinese are building a new fleet. China is also expanding its nuclear arsenal, and it looks like they are focusing on submarines to be their preferred platform for future nuclear weapons.

China's Navy Using Underground Tunnels To Protect Its Key Warships And Submarines

The Chinese Navy has a number of underground tunnels accessed from the sea, distributed along the coastline. They are often associated with submarine bases. H I Sutton

Forbes: Chinese Navy Submarines Are Protected By Underground Tunnels

China is a maritime nation with over 9,000 miles of coastline, dotted with ports. Compared to most other countries, it has a large number of naval bases. By dispersing its forces across many bases the Chinese Navy, formally known as the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy), is protecting them against surprise attack. But some of it bases go further, offering underground tunnels to protect key warships and submarines.

In the age of precision strike cruise missiles and bunker buster bombs, tunnels may seem an outdated idea. But they still provide cover against some air attack and, perhaps more importantly, prying eyes. And they can also protect against nuclear attack, provided it is not a direct hit.

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WNU Editor: These tunnels must be massive.

China's Submarine Lead In Asia Is Growing

Many Asian navies have plans to acquire new submarines in the next ten years, often expanding their overall fleet strength. Many of these designs are indigenous. But China's lead, relative to the rest, could grow. H I Sutton

Forbes: China's Submarine Lead In Asia Could Grow By 2030

Submarines are the hot asset among Asian countries right now, with ~239 in service with the region’s navies. Almost every navy is acquiring new types. If we look ahead 10 years the submarine landscape in the region will be very different. And by 2030 China could have more than twice as many as any other other Asian country.

The total number of submarines will likely drop to around 220. More on why later. But this headline drop in numbers hides the greater trend which is one of expansion and modernization of submarine forces.

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WNU Editor: There is an arms race in Asia that China is "winning". Submarines are part of that "race".

China's Naval Activities Are Spreading Throughout Asia

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

News.com.au: ‘Right on our doorstep’: Secret sub reveals China’s chilling plan

After years of domination in the South China Sea, Chinese submarines have started popping up somewhere new – and it’s on our doorstep.

The Andaman Sea is fast becoming the latest target of Chinese expansionism. India says it has seen a surge of Chinese submarine activity in the strategically critical waterway.

And, last month, its navy booted a Chinese spy ship out of its waters. But Indian Navy sources say Chinese submarines have become a regular visitor to the region. And they’re much harder to deal with.

In September, the Indian navy evicted the Chinese survey ship Shiyan-1 for intruding upon its exclusive economic zone. It was sailing among the Andaman and Nicobar Islands without permission. And such survey ships map the ocean floor for just two purposes: military or economic.

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WNU Editor: And here is an easy prediction. China's naval activities are only going to increase with time.

Did A Chinese Nuclear Ballistic Missile In The South China Sea Get Tangled Up In A Fishing Net?

An unverified photo of a Chinese Type 094 (Jin-class) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) surfacing beside a Vietnamese fishing vessel. The photo's reportedly taken by a Vietnamese fisherman near Paracel Islands in the South China Sea in September 2019. pic.twitter.com/Vb5CH3o6Dz

— Duan Dang (@duandang) October 16, 2019

Forbes: Chinese Nuclear Submarine May Have Been Involved In Incident In South China Sea

Vietnamese fishermen recently may have gotten a big surprise: an 11,000-ton submarine surfacing among their boats. The incident reportedly occurred in September but has only recently come to light via social media. The Chinese Navy Jin Class ballistic missile submarine was said to have been operating near the Paracel Islands. The islands, known as Xisha in Chinese, are in a strategic location in the South China Sea. They are controlled by China but also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

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WNU Editor: The Chinese Navy really does not care about Vietnamese fishermen. Something else must have happened for this sub to surface as it did.

China Confirms That It Conducted A Submarine-Launched Missile Test Last Month

Smoke from a missile trail seen from Jinan city on Sunday prompted speculation that China had tested its next-generation long-range weapon. Photo: Weibo

Washington Free Beacon: China Confirms Submarine-Launched Missile Test

JL-3 is Beijing's newest nuclear missile capable of ranging US

China's Defense Ministry this week confirmed the test firing of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile the Pentagon regards as a strategic weapon capable of striking anywhere in the United States from underwater launch points.

Asked about the test of the new JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, Sr. Col., Ren Guoqiang, a Defense Ministry spokesman, acknowledged the test firing.

"It is normal for China to conduct scientific research and tests according to plan," Ren said during the monthly press briefing.

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WNU Editor: Fortunately their subs are still "noisy" and easy to detect .... Is China’s nuclear attack submarine too easy to detect? (SCMP).

China's Has Joined The Nuclear-Powered Ballistic Missile Submarine Club

A nuclear-powered Type 094A Jin-class ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is seen during a military display in the South China Sea April 12, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer

Reuters: Special Report: China's furtive underwater nukes test the Pentagon

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Recent visitors to the bay surrounding a submarine base on the southern coast of China’s Hainan Island describe a curious nocturnal phenomenon. Powerful spotlights are sometimes trained directly on the ocean frontages of neighboring hotels at night, making visibility out to sea virtually impossible. Some of the lights are mounted on land and others on passing naval patrol boats.

“The effect is incredible,” said one recent visitor. “The glare is so great you can hardly stand it on the balcony. You go inside and draw the curtains tight.”

The blinding lights cannot obscure something of intense interest to the world’s military intelligence agencies: evidence that China has made a breakthrough in its drive to rival America and Russia as a nuclear arms power.

Satellite imagery reveals the regular presence of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines at the strategic base near the resort city of Sanya. Specialized surface warships and aircraft designed to protect the subs are prowling key waterways off the coast. Facilities at the base appear to have been built to store and load ballistic missiles. Antenna arrays that support the hunt for foreign submarines have appeared on Chinese-held islands in the hotly contested South China Sea. And a veteran submariner has been appointed to command Chinese forces in the south of the country.

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WNU Editor: The Pentagon expects these Chinese nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines will soon be deployed to the Arctic .... Pentagon warns on risk of Chinese submarines in Arctic (Reuters). On a side note, here is a story on the development of China's nuclear-attack submarines .... China’s ‘Long March’ to a Credible Nuclear Attack Submarine (National Interest).

Chinese Has Set Up A Massive Communications Grid To Keep Long-Range Communications Open With Its Submarines

A US Navy chart showing various submarine communications options and their relative risk. The "bell" icon for VLF/ELF "stealth" transmissions reflects that these are one-way only "bell ringers" typically used to alert a submarine that it needs to find a safe place to get closer to the surface to receive additional information. USN

Warzone/The Drive: China's NYC-Sized 'Earthquake Warning System' Array Sounds More Like A Way To Talk To Submarines

With the largest submarine force on Earth, the Chinese increasingly need long-range communications options that don't require the boats to surface.

China has reportedly constructed a massive extremely low frequency, or ELF, antenna array the size of New York City, as well as a smaller system and associated data processing and signal transmission facilities at various locations throughout the country. Officially, the entire system, known as Project Wireless Electromagnetic Method or Project WEM, will support the Chinese resource extraction industry and provide early warning about potential earthquakes. However, there is significant evidence that its primary function may actually be to provide long-range communication with Chinese submarines, a critical capability to support its growing number of nuclear-armed ballistic missile boats.

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WNU Editor: China is thinking global.

The People's Liberation Army Navy Submarines In 2018

The People's Liberation Army Navy submarines in 2018

Naval Analysis: INFOGRAPHICS #31: The People's Liberation Army Navy submarines in 2018

In the following infographic, The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarines in 2018, I depict all the submarines that are currently in commission with the PLA Navy (as of April 1, 2018). Currently, the PLA Navy (PLAN; Chinese: 中国人民解放军海军), operates a large number of nuclear-powered and diesel electric submarines. The Chinese ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) fleet consists of at least five (5) Jin class (09IV/09IVA, from now on 094/04A) SSBN vessels (other sources mention six boats already in the class) and one Xia class (Type 092) SSBN (other sources report also a sub-variant, the Type 092G, consisting of a pair of boats) and perhaps one boat of the third generation of Chinese SSBN, the lead ship of the Type 096 SSBN (NATO:Tang-class).

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WNU Editor: For a high resolution image click here.

China's Growing Submarine Force Is 'Armed To The Teeth'

Chinese sailors on a submarine during the fleet's review of a joint China-Russia naval exercise in the Yellow Sea, April 26, 2012. REUTERS/China Daily

Business Insider: China's growing submarine force is 'armed to the teeth' — and the rest of the Pacific is racing to keep up

* Countries in East Asia, led by China, have been pursuing a military buildup for years.
* Submarines, flexible platforms with strategic uses, have been a particular focus.
* Uncertainty about the balance of power in the region has stoked countries' pursuit of military hardware.

In October 2006, a Chinese Song-class diesel-electric submarine capable of carrying torpedoes and antiship missiles surfaced within firing range of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk.

"Some navy officers interpreted it as a 'Gotcha!' move," journalist Michael Fabey wrote in his 2018 book, "Crashback." It was "a warning from China that US carrier groups could no longer expect to operate with impunity."

Almost exactly nine years later, China again demonstrated its growing naval prowess, when a Kilo-class diesel-electric attack sub shadowed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan near southern Japan.

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WNU Editor: China now has the means to build these subs quickly .... The World's Largest Submarine Factory Is Being Built In China (April 30, 2017).