10 Conflicts To Watch In 2024

Foreign Policy: 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024  

More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it. 

Can we stop things falling apart? 

2024 begins with wars burning in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine and peacemaking in crisis. Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it. War has been on the rise since about 2012, after a decline in the 1990s and early 2000s. First came conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, triggered by the 2011 Arab uprisings. Libya’s instability spilled south, helping set off a protracted crisis in the Sahel region. A fresh wave of major combat followed: the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, horrific fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region that began weeks later, the conflict prompted by the Myanmar army’s 2021 power grab, and Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine. Add to those 2023’s devastation in Sudan and Gaza. Around the globe, more people are dying in fighting, being forced from their homes, or in need of life-saving aid than in decades.  

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WNU Editor: The First Post has its list of 10 conflicts to watch for in 2024 .... 10 major conflicts to watch out for in 2024 (First Post). So does the Crisis Group .... Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2024 (Crisis Group).  

Update: Elon Musk is right. All signs indicate that it is going to be a crazy year .... 2024 is going to be ‘even more crazy’ – Elon Musk (RT).

While The World Is Watching Gaza And Ukraine A Slew Of New Conflicts Could Erupt In 2024

Ukrainian soldiers cover their ears to protect them from the noise of Russian tank shelling in the Zaporizhzhia region. Libkos/AP  

CNBC: A slew of new conflicts could erupt in 2024, analysts say — while the world is watching Gaza and Ukraine 

* The U.N. estimated in October that more than 114 million people were displaced by war and conflict worldwide. That figure is now likely higher. 

* Isabelle Arradon, research director at the International Crisis Group, told CNBC earlier this month that conflict fatalities globally are at their highest since 2000. 

* “All the red flags are there, and on top of that, there is a shortage of means to resolve conflict. There’s a lot of geopolitical competition and less appetite for resolving these deadly conflicts,” she added. 

With the eyes of the world on the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, an unprecedented number of potentially “catastrophic” conflicts are going under the radar, analysts have warned. 

The International Rescue Committee earlier this month released its emergency watchlist for 2024, documenting the 20 countries at the greatest risk of security deterioration. These countries account for around 10% of the world’s population but around 70% of its displaced persons, along with approximately 86% of global humanitarian need.  

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Update #1: The crises that may get worse in 2024 (Washington Post)  

Update #2: The top 10 crises the world can’t ignore in 2024 (International Rescue Committee)  

WNU Editor: The expectation is that 2024 is going to get worse .... A Slew Of New Conflicts Could Erupt In 2024 (CNN).

Is Spending Billions On Overseas Wars Good For U.S. Employment And The Economy?

U.S. airmen from the 60th Aerial Port Squadron load cargo onto a Boeing 757 Jan. 22, 2022 at Travis Air Force Base, California. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $5.4 billion in total assistance to Ukraine, including security and non-security assistance. (Nicholas Pilch/Air Force)  

Zero Hedge/Epoch Times: US Spends Billions On Overseas Wars, But Who Really Benefits? 

Fears over incentivizing global conflicts are rising as the Biden administration requests more than $105 billion in supplemental security spending. 

The administration says the money, primarily for Israel and Ukraine, will be good for the economy. 

President Joe Biden has described the mammoth spending package as “a smart investment” that will “pay dividends” to U.S. security interests. 

Likewise, Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien described the supplemental as “a very good bargain.” 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the money will “flow through our defense industrial base, creating American jobs in more than 30 states.”  

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WNU Editor: I support Presidential hopeful Robert Kennedy Jr. on this one .... 

.... “Creating jobs is a poor excuse for a foreign policy that wreaks mayhem around the world,” Mr. Kennedy told The Epoch Times in an email.

Is The World At War?

Paul Poast, The Atlantic: Not a World War But a World at War 

Just in the past 24 months, an astonishing number of armed conflicts have started, renewed, or escalated. Some had been fully frozen, meaning that the sides had not sustained direct combat in years; others were long simmering, meaning that low-level fighting would intermittently erupt. All have now become active. 

The list encompasses not just the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, but hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, Serbian military measures against Kosovo, fighting in Eastern Congo, complete turmoil in Sudan since April, and a fragile cease-fire in Tigray that Ethiopia seems poised to break at any time. Syria and Yemen have not exactly been quiet during this period, and gangs and cartels continuously menace governments, including those in Haiti and Mexico. All of this comes on top of the prospect of a major war breaking out in East Asia, such as by China invading the island of Taiwan.  

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WNU Editor: The last paragraph of the above post sums it perfectly .... 

.... Wars were already a persistent feature of the international system. But they were not widespread. War was always happening somewhere, in other words, but war was not happening everywhere. The above dynamics could change that tendency. The prevalence of war, not just its persistence, could now be our future.

The US Is Presently Involved In 15 ‘Shadow Wars’

KXNET/Stacker: The US is presently involved in 15 ‘shadow wars’: Here’s where and why 

STACKER — The ever-expanding American military footprint covers nearly every continent. While the United States has long had a military presence in other nations, the scope significantly expanded following the passage of the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force, which, in the wake of 9/11, permitted the support of foreign forces against various terrorist groups. The U.S. has since had 173,000 troops deployed in 159 countries as of 2020 and currently maintains at least 750 foreign military bases across 80 countries, according to the Conflict Management and Peace Science journal. 

Stacker compiled a list of 15 “shadow wars” the U.S. is currently involved in and how those conflicts began, using various news, government, and investigative sources.

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WNU Editor: Any predictions that this number is going to increase (or decrease) in the coming year or two?

New Report Says Post-9/11 US Conflicts May Have Killed Over 4.5 Million People

BREAKING: Our latest estimates reveal that deaths in post-9/11 war zones top 4.5 million.

Read more by @MiriamABerger in the @WashingtonPost: https://t.co/nefwgALoP6 pic.twitter.com/D8UJyfnr6K

— The Costs of War Project (@CostsOfWar) May 15, 2023

Common Dreams: 'Death Outlives War': Analysis Estimates Post-9/11 US Conflicts Killed Over 4.5 Million 

"The United States government, while not solely responsible for the damage, has a significant obligation to invest in humanitarian assistance and reconstruction in post-9/11 war zones," said the author of a new report. The post-9/11 War on Terror may have caused at least 4.5 million deaths in around half a dozen countries, according to a report published Monday by the preeminent academic institution studying the costs, casualties, and consequences of a war in which U.S. bombs and bullets are still killing and wounding people in multiple nations. 

The new report from the Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs shows "how death outlives war" by examining people killed indirectly by the War on Terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen.  

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WNU Editor: The report is focused on blaming the U.S.. But many Western countries (i.e. Canada, U.K., etc.) also willingly participated in these wars and conflicts, and they must also share some of the blame. 

The report is here .... How Death Outlives War: The Reverberating Impact of the Post-9/11 Wars on Human Health (Costs Of War).

The Russia - Ukraine War Is Not The Only War Happening Now

Daily Mail: All eyes are on the borderlands of Russia and Ukraine... but life hasn't stopped elsewhere with global powers circling over civil wars still raging in the Middle East, writes author and producer ERBIL GUNASTI 

 * Middle-ranking powers such as India and Turkey have not taken sides in Ukraine 

* Battles elsewhere will not remain frozen just because America is preoccupied 

All eyes are on the borderlands of Russia and Ukraine. All Western eyes, that is. And understandably so. The consequences of the Russian invasion have been huge, not least when it comes to energy prices. 

If the West is preoccupied, however, that doesn’t mean the rest of the world has ground to a halt. 

Life hasn’t stopped just because NATO and Moscow are locked in conflict. Other countries have their own problems to face – pressing ones. And it should be no surprise that a range of middle-ranking powers, including India, Turkey and South Africa have refused to take sides. 

The vicious civil war in the Yemen, the fighting in the Horn of Africa, the perpetual conflicts in the Middle East – all these are continuing, even if the Western media has turned its gaze elsewhere. 

These battles will not remain frozen just because America is preoccupied. And it is a mistake to ignore them because the various outcomes will help shape the future for all of us.  

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WNU Editor: A list of ongoing armed conflicts that are taking place around the world is here (link here).

Current Global Armed Conlficts 2022

Statistica: The World at War in 2022  

May 8, 2021 marked 76 years since the end of the Second World War in Europe - VE Day. While the conflict which claimed millions of lives on European soil is firmly committed to the annals of history, conflict in the East of the continent is still a harsh reality in the present day. Even before the recently increased risk of a Russian invasion, the Ukrainian crisis, ravaging the Donbass region of the country, had amassed a death toll above the 13 thousand mark.  

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WNU Editor: It looks like 2022 will just be a continuation of 2021.

Where Are The World’s Ongoing Conflicts Today?

(Click on Image to Enlarge)  

Visual Capitalist: Mapped: Where Are The World's Ongoing Conflicts Today? 

We live in an era of relative peace compared to most of history, however, as Visual Capitalist's Avery Koop details below, this does not mean that there are no conflicts in the world today. 

This map using data from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) reveals where the world’s 27 ongoing conflicts are today, and what type of conflicts they are.  

Detailing the Conflicts 

Many people alive today have never lived through a war on their country’s soil, especially those in the West. 

But conflict, wars, and violence are by no means things of the past. 

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), as of Q2’2021 alone: 

* Violence against civilians resulted in over 5,000 deaths worldwide 

* Battle related deaths numbered over 18,000 * Explosion/remote violence led to more than 4,000 deaths 

* Riots resulted in over 600 fatalities  

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WNU Editor: Historically speaking. Today's conflicts are minor when compared to wars and conflicts in the past. But we all know this can change very quickly if today's major powers decide to wage war directly against each other right now.

Visualizing America's Longest Foreign Wars

Zero Hedge: Visualizing America's Longest Foreign Wars 

President Biden has announced that 2,500 U.S. troops and another 7,000 from NATO will start returning home from Afghanistan in May, with the full withdrawal set to be completed in time for the 20th anniversary of 9/11. 

In a White House speech, he said: "I am now the fourth American president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan. Two Republicans. Two Democrats. I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth." 

Statista's Niall McCarthy details that over the course of nearly two decades, America's longest war has consumed $2 trillion dollars, cost 110,000 Afghan lives and also resulted in the deaths of 3,500 coalition service members including around 2,400 Americans.  

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WNU Editor: The U.S. is still in Afghanistan. A lot can happen between now and September 11 when US forces must be out of Afghanistan.

Report: Number Of All-Out Wars In Decline, Limited Wars On The Rise

A man rides a vehicle near damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi

DW: German institute: Number of all-out wars in decline, limited wars on the rise

The number of all-out wars decreased from 20 in 2017 to 16 in 2018, according to the Heidelberg-based researchers. The number of so-called "limited wars," however, surged from 16 to 24.

The "Conflict Barometer" published by Heidelberg University's Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK) identified only nine former conflicts as being settled or becoming inactive last year.

Worldwide, 372 conflicts had seethed at varying levels of intensity, the HIIK said, with 213, or 57 percent, fought out violently.

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WNU Editor: The report is here .... International Conflict Research.

U.S. Armed Forces Took Or Gave Fire In These Seven Countries In 2018

Members of 5th Special Forces Group (A) conducting 50. Cal Weapons training during counter ISIS operations at Al Tanf Garrison in southern Syria. US Marine Corps

Business Insider: America's year in war: All the places US armed forces took or gave fire in 2018

* The US military gave or took fire in some form or another in at least seven countries in 2018: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and Libya.
* At least 15 US soldiers were killed in Afghanistan in 2018 in a war that entered its 18th year in October.
* The US military also continues to be active in Iraq and Syria in the ongoing fight against the Islamic State group, conducting airstrikes and advising local forces on the ground.
* Under Trump, the US has also dramatically increased the number of drone strikes in places the US is not currently at war.

The US military gave or took fire in some form or another in at least seven countries in 2018: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and Libya.

Here's a breakdown of America's military involvement in each country.

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WNU Editor: I thought the number was bigger.

No New U.S. Wars In 2017

Staff Sergeant Johnathan E. Farnour, a UH-1N Huey crew chief for Marine Medium Helicopter Squadron 162 (Reinforced), 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable) prepares for landing aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) following a close-air-support training mission August 10 at Godoria Range in Djibouti. The MEU conducted the exercise as the Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group rounded the Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa area of responsibility en-route to the Red Sea. The training focused on close air support and forward air control tactics and procedures. (USMC photo by Gunnery Sergeant Mark E. Bradley) (Released)

WNU Editor: No new U.S. wars in 2017 .... List of wars involving the United States (Wikipedia)

Hat tip Instapundit.

Interactive Map Reveals EVERY Conflict Currently Active Around The World

The map is designed to raise awareness of the 'forgotten conflicts' around the world

Daily Mail: The world at war: Stunning interactive map reveals EVERY conflict currently active around the world

Created by non-profit organisation IRIN, it allows users to easily see key points of each conflict
Map is part of a series of articles looking at the 'forgotten wars' around the world

There are more than 40 active conflicts around the world at the moment.

While Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq are well known, a new interactive maps reveals them all.

Created by non-profit organisation IRIN, it allows users to easily to key points of each conflict.

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WNU Editor: Being one who has chronicled wars and conflicts for almost 10 years on this blog .... this map is very accurate.

History's Longest Wars

Ranker: The Longest Wars in History

Some conflicts are passed down from generation to generation, either because of their size, or because they simmer at a low boil with little violence. Others were ostensibly declared wars that never ended due to various diplomatic irregularities or political quirks. In either case, the wars listed here are the longest wars in history.

In fact, the longest war in history, the Punic Wars, lasted over two thousand years - but only had 80 years of combat. Another incredibly long war, the 335 Years War, never had a shot fired and had been forgotten about until a ceremonial treaty was signed ending it.

WNU Editor: There are some very long wars in this collection.

This Week in War (A Summay)

A member of the Ukrainian armed forces assists local residents onto a bus to flee the military conflict, in Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine, February 6, 2015. Credit: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

The Editors: Cicero Magazine: This Week in War

WNU Editor: A good summary on the past weeks wars, conflicts, and general news.

Small Conflicts Affected Millions In 2015

The mountains of Afghanistan (Photo from The Telegraph)

Alex Whiting, Reuters: Under-reported conflicts seen affecting millions in 2015

Update: Factbox: Under-reported conflicts in 2015 -- Reuters

WNU Editor: There are approximately 30 low-intensity conflicts in the world today .... but added together these conflicts do indeed impact millions.

7 Under-Reported Conflicts In 2014

A gun fight between loyalists of former president Francois Bozize and ex-rebels who ousted him killed nearly 55 people in Central African Republic. (Photo : Twitter)

Washington Post: 7 awful conflicts that were under-reported in 2014

WNU Editor: Libya, Yemen, Assam, The Sudans, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia/Kenya .... 7 conflicts that are always covered by this blog. I would also add .... Central African Republic, Mali, Colombia, and Congo.

What Countries Are Currently At War? A Complete List

WNU Editor: The complete list is here.

Update: 11.7% Of The World's At War: Global Geopolitical Risk Mapped -- Zero Hedge

A Statistical Look Back At A Violent Year Of War And Conflict

U.S. Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Thomas Hanney uses his M240 machine gun to provide cover near a bazaar in the Nad Ali district of Helmand province, Afghanistan, Dec. 4, 2013. Hanney, a machine gunner, is assigned to 1st Battalion, 9th Marine Regiment. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Paul Peterson

2013: War By The Numbers -- David Axe, War is Boring

A statistical look back at a violent year

50,000

The approximate number of people killed this year in the civil war in Syria.

6,000,000

Estimate of Syrian refugees displaced by the fighting, out of a population of 22 million.

500

Approximate number of Syrian government tanks destroyed by rebels in 2013.

59

Journalists killed in the line of duty worldwide in 2013.

22

Journalists killed in Syria this year.

57

The percentage of Pentagon officials who could locate Damascus on a map, according to one informal survey.

156

U.S. and coalition troops killed in Afghanistan, down 60 percent from 2012.

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